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Thread: GBP and JPY Pairs

  1. #73951
    rcopadilla is offline Member
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    1min pos D

    got me out of the short scalp. But the 5min 250EMA and the 30min lower band still have not been tagged so am looking to do another short scalp before going long.

  2. #73952
    ericwong is offline Member
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    Excellent Sharing

    Quote Originally Posted by Robert Eckert View Post
    For the euro to keep going up, or just stay where it is, it doesn't just need to retain the current investors, but to constantly attract new capital from outside Europe (people who are selling other currencies to buy euros) to offset the constant selling pressure from companies which are making euros and don't want to accumulate them. The LTRO has net zero effect. What was important today, aside from bleah US numbers hitting the dollar, was a balance-sheet publication by the ECB, indicating that again they have bought zero European debt paper from the markets, and have actually let their foreign exchange reserves go down. Given the extent to which they have pushed for eurobonds to be sold off from European banks to outside investors, they would have to either buy up $100B of foreign exchange, or take that much euro-paper out of circulation, just to be market neutral. But apparently the ECB actively desires a strong euro, despite its heavy consequences on the ground. This attracts foreign investors who are wary of the dollar or yen (BoJ and Fed of course both act to weaken their currencies, if not very strongly) and keeps this rally going, although I remain unconvinced it can keep it up more than another week.

    Quite true, but Spanish officials projected mildly growing GDP, and revenues, to justify their forecasts that they will meet deficit targets; of course the GDP is shrinking, and has no prospect of turning around until the euro drops ~1000 pips (exports within Europe are OK but outside of Europe are hopeless, and the tourist trade will be very weak this summer). If the unofficial economy is better than the official economy, that is well and good, but will do nothing for revenues. How well or badly people are really feeling we will see on Tuesday: expect banks especially to be targets of vandalism during the May Day rallies, and the police to be itching for a fight.

    Get that notion out of your head. He is down 10% and falling, and has no chance of making up the ground.
    Hi Robert - your sharing is always so informative and refreshing. Thanks so much. Please continue your frequentexcellent comments which provide me a better understanding on trading the euro. Eric

  3. #73953
    Robert Eckert is offline Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by ericwong View Post
    Hi Robert - your sharing is always so informative and refreshing. Thanks so much. Please continue your frequentexcellent comments which provide me a better understanding on trading the euro. Eric
    Thanks, but: before you take my word on anything, be warned that my record remains poor. March, both demo account ("big" money, in theory) and real account (small, unless and until I get the hang of it) were slaughtered. April, demo is doing great, more than making up previous losses-- but real is negative again for the month, if not as bad as last time. This, of course, is because I am not emotionally involved with the demo, don't look at it often and only make adjustments now and again, while the real account I micro-manage into disaster after disaster.

    I'm still kicking myself about last night. I closed out euro shorts, expecting Asian buyers to come in during Tokyo hours as they have so often this past month and a half. Instead of going to bed I played USD/JPY, which has often been good to me, but totally misplayed the reaction to Bank of Japan policy release, buying at a top and selling near the bottom; then re-shorted euro, which was about back where I had left it, at 5PM Tokyo = 4AM my time (when I had no excuse to still be up) and-- zoom, up 75 pips during London session while I slept, more than wiping out any positives I've had lately. On the bright side, looks like the Asian buyers are just about gone, which I've been waiting to see for a month and a half. I like this theory:
    Quote Originally Posted by stkelrey
    The "someone" buying was reported by MNI as French banks. Bascially, MNI reported that as momentum built to the downside French banks placed large single orders to est support points. If so, this will fade next week and will not hold the market. They are playing window dressing at this point.
    Strong euro is good for France and Germany, bad for the south (depreciation would induce inflation, basically reducing the standard of living for the rich to aid the poor, which is why ECB doesn't like it). So maybe French manipulators want to keep the appearance of a strong euro going through the election, though as I told Megatron, I think Sarko is toast no matter what. I left some shorts in over the weekend, just in case, although I still think there's a week to wait before Bear Season.

    EDIT: I found raw data on the ECB balance-sheet release. No purchase of euro-bonds from the market whatsoever since before the March 15 rally-onset. An ECB board member with the unfortunate name Assmussen is quoted saying, "Our policies have been appropriate and will continue." Remember the guy who told us "this ain't like the equity markets"? He got that right. Of course when a company posts loss after loss it is not unheard-of for a CEO to defiantly say "We're sticking to our game plan!" even if everybody reads that as "We're not returning to profitability, ever!" But-- in such a case the stock doesn't usually keep going up and up, like we see here!
    Last edited by Robert Eckert; 04-29-2012 at 07:24 PM. Reason: more info
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  4. #73954
    ericwong is offline Member
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    Hi All - I would like to share this article:

    ""Why The Euro Is So Strong, Or Why The Market Expects $700bn Of Fed QE3""

    with you. It appears on the Zerohedge website.

    Why The Euro Is So Strong, Or Why The Market Expects $700bn Of Fed QE3 | ZeroHedge
    Robert Eckert likes this.

  5. #73955
    Ikee's Avatar
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    Cool

    Looks feasible. BUT. With Cable & OZIIE seeking Northerly destinations, why would the Euro head South.???...
    Last edited by Ikee; 04-28-2012 at 04:35 AM. Reason: Thpelling mithtakeths
    jogold18 and Graceding like this.
    Never rush a trade. Make haste slowly.

  6. #73956
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ikee View Post
    Looks feasible. BUT. With Cable & OZIIE seeking Northerly destinations, why would the Euro head South.???...
    Something I learned from some good traders is too never create a bias on correlation. Charts will all move the way the charts move and correlation will give too much confusion if that makes any sense.
    Ikee and buggypilot like this.
    Brian Jimerson
    FX Trader

  7. #73957
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    Quote Originally Posted by rcopadilla View Post
    Here's a 1min chart where the RSI reach 7.79. That value is extremely low, indicating more downside still coming.
    I see that... very interesting stuff. I cant tell very well, does it create a bullish divergence? Seems like that could lead to false signal?
    Brian Jimerson
    FX Trader

  8. #73958
    rcopadilla is offline Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bignatx View Post
    I see that... very interesting stuff. I cant tell very well, does it create a bullish divergence? Seems like that could lead to false signal?
    The extemely low RSI is very helpful when deciding when to take short profits and/or reverse to the long side. No need to go long yet, Wait for some Pos D before doing. By definition, pos D means more downside but with indicators starting to rise. The signal does not create divergence. Itl has been reliable for me. Keep in mind that any signal has a limited lifetime and other signals are being generated all the time. This was a scalp trade for me. Scalping is for quickie trading. I expect to do another short scalp before doing a swing trade back to higher highs.

  9. #73959
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    Quote Originally Posted by Clivewaverider View Post
    I know I have been banging on about this move up from 1.2994 being corrective and not worth taking the upside risk on and thus far the shorting of the peaks this week has served me well.

    Well, I go into the weekend banging on just a tad more so! I hazzarded guess a couple of weeks ago that we might go into a triple combination correction and in my mind we have done exactly that. I think we are just completing or likely to be soon a triple three zigzag as per Banlan 11-10.

    In this formation, there are 11 waves or MyWaves as I call them: abcXabcXabc. Well, I can count 5 waves up in this last bolt up which I surmised this morning my take the form of an expanded flat and that is what it has done. There maybe some more upside but it still not interest me a jot.

    I have added the MyWave counts to the 240 min chart. Do not get caught long here without tight stops is my opinion. There is likely strong waves down in an overall correction wave of the move up from 1.2623 or not as the case might be!

    I have been shorting all week for a reason and I am looking forward to my rewards!!
    Been tidying up all my charts from over the week - not much to add to the above bar this little gem. You might want to refer back to the charts attached the the above when looking at this one. All adds to the picture - enjoy.
    รูปขนาดเล็ก รูปขนาดเล็ก GBP and JPY Pairs-2week.jpg  

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  10. #73960
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    man do i love the different views on this thread. so much information with diff kinds of backgrounds/traders/charts/technical's, even discussion/talks of fundamental's which i dont look at to much are great to read and informative......

    keep it up "EVERYONE" ...........

    P.S. would love to see some of the older posters come back from time to time and post some analysis yoo....... but still this thread is great
    Croatan, chaudhry and Ikee like this.

  11. #73961
    Ikee's Avatar
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    Cool

    Quote Originally Posted by Ikee View Post
    Looks feasible. BUT. With Cable & OZIIE seeking Northerly destinations, why would the Euro head South.???...
    Food for thought.........
    Never rush a trade. Make haste slowly.

  12. #73962
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    With EUR/USD mirroring the moves in USD/CHF at the moment, looking at the daily and weekly close in USD/CHF must be scary for the guys at the SNB. What if they can't deliver on their pledges? So for that reason I am still not comfortable shorting EUR/USD.

    ...having said that, I think they will still come up with something and even if we break 0.9, that could prove to be a false break, but there's not much in the charts at the moment that could give me a hint, other than a confluence of two trendlines around that level.
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  13. #73963
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    Quote Originally Posted by melbgirl View Post
    With EUR/USD mirroring the moves in USD/CHF at the moment, looking at the daily and weekly close in USD/CHF must be scary for the guys at the SNB. What if they can't deliver on their pledges? So for that reason I am still not comfortable shorting EUR/USD.

    ...having said that, I think they will still come up with something and even if we break 0.9, that could prove to be a false break, but there's not much in the charts at the moment that could give me a hint, other than a confluence of two trendlines around that level.

    we could break, but maybe that break to the down side will act as a buying opportunity on the weekly with a fast and aggressive move down to .8550 area (give or take couple hundred pips) forming a big double bottom @ .8550.

    unless that does not fold out maybe we get a new low and the SNB completely failed at keeping the price above .9000.

    or maybe we talking to soon and price might just find support in this tiny triangle (yello) and head back up from here.

    just spitting diff views out cuz at this point we could break up or down. we at a t-junction and the guy driving is not sure if he wants to make a left or right, but once he will, we will surly know which way he turned
    รูป รูป  
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  14. #73964
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    EURO - 3280-90 THE MOST IMP LVL NOW

    nitial expected range on EURO is 3166-3283... the 4 hrs chart play.
    Second chart is a 8 hrs and shows the resis tested on Friday and shows the price to be in an ascending wedge calling in for a decline..
    3rd chart is the charm here and says it all. Says it all about this heavy dead out moves within a very tight ranges and whereby the resis top is a smoother long running (tested and held on every occasion) TL coming in at 3282-83 for Monday.... The base could be taken from various spots each ends up reshaping the formation and pattern. Still think it counts up for a descending triangle.. This view will strengthen if the 3280-85 ends up holding or we simply not getting a clean break higher to it...
    To top things off, we have a more indication on the weekly candle that suggests we just may see a 3280-90 lvl holding for a move lower..
    Incase we do end up breaking higher, 3510 is most likely the preferred tgt lvl on the move..

    Offcourse if this is true then USD most certainly be finding a bottom and rising out soon.....

    GL..
    รูปขนาดเล็ก รูปขนาดเล็ก GBP and JPY Pairs-eur-3166-3280-range-tact-asc-wedge.jpg  

    GBP and JPY Pairs-eur-8-hrs-wedge-top-played-likely-time-fall.jpg  

    GBP and JPY Pairs-eur-8-hrs-main-chart.jpg  

    GBP and JPY Pairs-eur-8-hrs-3000-magic-supp-lvl-now.jpg  

    GBP and JPY Pairs-eur-weekly-double-whammy-bulls.jpg  

    Patience is virtue. The sooner we learn this all, sooner we can start walking to the bank. Good Luck to all of us—
    The trick is to wait the price meet ur limits, instead of one jumping in.. however scalps is a totally different scenario and is not everyone's cup of tea
    Disclaimer: I'm not at all suggesting trades when by either posting the graphs, or my entries. You can view it, but in the end you have to use your own logic and approach, as there is no certainty about this uncertain market...

  15. #73965
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    Quote Originally Posted by stryker View Post
    nitial expected range on EURO is 3166-3283... the 4 hrs chart play.
    Second chart is a 8 hrs and shows the resis tested on Friday and shows the price to be in an ascending wedge calling in for a decline..
    3rd chart is the charm here and says it all. Says it all about this heavy dead out moves within a very tight ranges and whereby the resis top is a smoother long running (tested and held on every occasion) TL coming in at 3282-83 for Monday.... The base could be taken from various spots each ends up reshaping the formation and pattern. Still think it counts up for a descending triangle.. This view will strengthen if the 3280-85 ends up holding or we simply not getting a clean break higher to it...
    To top things off, we have a more indication on the weekly candle that suggests we just may see a 3280-90 lvl holding for a move lower..
    Incase we do end up breaking higher, 3510 is most likely the preferred tgt lvl on the move..

    Offcourse if this is true then USD most certainly be finding a bottom and rising out soon.....

    GL..
    I hope you're right, my friend ;-)

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