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04-27-2012, 05:23 PM #73951
1min pos D
got me out of the short scalp. But the 5min 250EMA and the 30min lower band still have not been tagged so am looking to do another short scalp before going long.
04-27-2012, 06:49 PM #73952
Hi Robert - your sharing is always so informative and refreshing. Thanks so much. Please continue your frequentexcellent comments which provide me a better understanding on trading the euro. Eric
Originally Posted by Robert Eckert
04-27-2012, 07:14 PM #73953
Thanks, but: before you take my word on anything, be warned that my record remains poor. March, both demo account ("big" money, in theory) and real account (small, unless and until I get the hang of it) were slaughtered. April, demo is doing great, more than making up previous losses-- but real is negative again for the month, if not as bad as last time. This, of course, is because I am not emotionally involved with the demo, don't look at it often and only make adjustments now and again, while the real account I micro-manage into disaster after disaster.
Originally Posted by ericwong
I'm still kicking myself about last night. I closed out euro shorts, expecting Asian buyers to come in during Tokyo hours as they have so often this past month and a half. Instead of going to bed I played USD/JPY, which has often been good to me, but totally misplayed the reaction to Bank of Japan policy release, buying at a top and selling near the bottom; then re-shorted euro, which was about back where I had left it, at 5PM Tokyo = 4AM my time (when I had no excuse to still be up) and-- zoom, up 75 pips during London session while I slept, more than wiping out any positives I've had lately. On the bright side, looks like the Asian buyers are just about gone, which I've been waiting to see for a month and a half. I like this theory:
Strong euro is good for France and Germany, bad for the south (depreciation would induce inflation, basically reducing the standard of living for the rich to aid the poor, which is why ECB doesn't like it). So maybe French manipulators want to keep the appearance of a strong euro going through the election, though as I told Megatron, I think Sarko is toast no matter what. I left some shorts in over the weekend, just in case, although I still think there's a week to wait before Bear Season.
Originally Posted by stkelrey
EDIT: I found raw data on the ECB balance-sheet release. No purchase of euro-bonds from the market whatsoever since before the March 15 rally-onset. An ECB board member with the unfortunate name Assmussen is quoted saying, "Our policies have been appropriate and will continue." Remember the guy who told us "this ain't like the equity markets"? He got that right. Of course when a company posts loss after loss it is not unheard-of for a CEO to defiantly say "We're sticking to our game plan!" even if everybody reads that as "We're not returning to profitability, ever!" But-- in such a case the stock doesn't usually keep going up and up, like we see here!
Last edited by Robert Eckert; 04-29-2012 at 07:24 PM.
Reason: more info
04-28-2012, 12:49 AM #73954
Hi All - I would like to share this article:
""Why The Euro Is So Strong, Or Why The Market Expects $700bn Of Fed QE3""
with you. It appears on the Zerohedge website.
Why The Euro Is So Strong, Or Why The Market Expects $700bn Of Fed QE3 | ZeroHedge
04-28-2012, 04:33 AM #73955
Looks feasible. BUT. With Cable & OZIIE seeking Northerly destinations, why would the Euro head South.???...
Last edited by Ikee; 04-28-2012 at 04:35 AM.
Reason: Thpelling mithtakeths
Never rush a trade. Make haste slowly.
04-28-2012, 02:58 PM #73956
Something I learned from some good traders is too never create a bias on correlation. Charts will all move the way the charts move and correlation will give too much confusion if that makes any sense.
Originally Posted by Ikee
04-28-2012, 03:01 PM #73957
I see that... very interesting stuff. I cant tell very well, does it create a bullish divergence? Seems like that could lead to false signal?
Originally Posted by rcopadilla
04-28-2012, 04:19 PM #73958
The extemely low RSI is very helpful when deciding when to take short profits and/or reverse to the long side. No need to go long yet, Wait for some Pos D before doing. By definition, pos D means more downside but with indicators starting to rise. The signal does not create divergence. Itl has been reliable for me. Keep in mind that any signal has a limited lifetime and other signals are being generated all the time. This was a scalp trade for me. Scalping is for quickie trading. I expect to do another short scalp before doing a swing trade back to higher highs.
Originally Posted by Bignatx
04-28-2012, 05:22 PM #73959
Been tidying up all my charts from over the week - not much to add to the above bar this little gem. You might want to refer back to the charts attached the the above when looking at this one. All adds to the picture - enjoy.
Originally Posted by Clivewaverider
04-28-2012, 08:08 PM #73960
man do i love the different views on this thread. so much information with diff kinds of backgrounds/traders/charts/technical's, even discussion/talks of fundamental's which i dont look at to much are great to read and informative......
keep it up "EVERYONE" ...........
P.S. would love to see some of the older posters come back from time to time and post some analysis yoo....... but still this thread is great
04-28-2012, 09:21 PM #73961
Food for thought.........
Originally Posted by Ikee
Never rush a trade. Make haste slowly.
04-29-2012, 02:12 AM #73962
With EUR/USD mirroring the moves in USD/CHF at the moment, looking at the daily and weekly close in USD/CHF must be scary for the guys at the SNB. What if they can't deliver on their pledges? So for that reason I am still not comfortable shorting EUR/USD.
...having said that, I think they will still come up with something and even if we break 0.9, that could prove to be a false break, but there's not much in the charts at the moment that could give me a hint, other than a confluence of two trendlines around that level.
04-29-2012, 07:03 AM #73963
Originally Posted by melbgirl
we could break, but maybe that break to the down side will act as a buying opportunity on the weekly with a fast and aggressive move down to .8550 area (give or take couple hundred pips) forming a big double bottom @ .8550.
unless that does not fold out maybe we get a new low and the SNB completely failed at keeping the price above .9000.
or maybe we talking to soon and price might just find support in this tiny triangle (yello) and head back up from here.
just spitting diff views out cuz at this point we could break up or down. we at a t-junction and the guy driving is not sure if he wants to make a left or right, but once he will, we will surly know which way he turned
04-29-2012, 07:33 AM #73964
EURO - 3280-90 THE MOST IMP LVL NOW
nitial expected range on EURO is 3166-3283... the 4 hrs chart play.
Second chart is a 8 hrs and shows the resis tested on Friday and shows the price to be in an ascending wedge calling in for a decline..
3rd chart is the charm here and says it all. Says it all about this heavy dead out moves within a very tight ranges and whereby the resis top is a smoother long running (tested and held on every occasion) TL coming in at 3282-83 for Monday.... The base could be taken from various spots each ends up reshaping the formation and pattern. Still think it counts up for a descending triangle.. This view will strengthen if the 3280-85 ends up holding or we simply not getting a clean break higher to it...
To top things off, we have a more indication on the weekly candle that suggests we just may see a 3280-90 lvl holding for a move lower..
Incase we do end up breaking higher, 3510 is most likely the preferred tgt lvl on the move..
Offcourse if this is true then USD most certainly be finding a bottom and rising out soon.....
Patience is virtue. The sooner we learn this all, sooner we can start walking to the bank. Good Luck to all of us
The trick is to wait the price meet ur limits, instead of one jumping in.. however scalps is a totally different scenario and is not everyone's cup of tea
Disclaimer: I'm not at all suggesting trades when by either posting the graphs, or my entries. You can view it, but in the end you have to use your own logic and approach, as there is no certainty about this uncertain market...
04-29-2012, 07:48 AM #73965
I hope you're right, my friend ;-)
Originally Posted by stryker