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Thread: Discuss GBP/USD - H2 2012

  1. #4426
    sratansi's Avatar
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    Am thinking that too might scalp if it hits 5688

  2. #4427
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  3. #4428
    carlh is offline Member
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    Hey, Im not to sure whats up today. I guess its either a double bottom and going to retrace or... it hit that bottom from 28th Jan and possibly going down to 1.55 turning support into resistance?

    btw, Greg, loved that pip n run session today, definitely going to try out those techniques

  4. #4429
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    Traders reported option expiries at $1.5630 with bids below that. Option barriers are cited at $1.5600.
    Patience and Discipline

  5. #4430
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    Quote Originally Posted by citytrader46 View Post
    Traders reported option expiries at $1.5630 with bids below that. Option barriers are cited at $1.5600.
    Does that mean we going to see a dip below 15600?

  6. #4431
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    Quote Originally Posted by sratansi View Post
    Does that mean we going to see a dip below 15600?
    I take it to mean that traders are protecting the 15630 level until the options expires with bids placed below that level once the option has expired there is not as much desire to protect that level and so its free to move lower
    Patience and Discipline

  7. #4432
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    DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Update (SSI) for 2.06.2013

    SSI Details:

    GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at 2.25 as 69% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was 1.98; 66% of open positions were long. Long positions are 12.9% higher than yesterday and 4.8% below levels seen last week. Short positions are 0.6% lower than yesterday and 6.2% below levels seen last week. Open interest is 8.4% higher than yesterday and 0.7% below its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are long gives signal that the GBPUSD may continue lower. The trading crowd has grown further net-long from yesterday and last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further bearish trading bias.



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  8. #4433
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    A slow day not sure if I should scalp and fall asleep...

  9. #4434
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    Quote Originally Posted by sratansi View Post
    A slow day not sure if I should scalp and fall asleep...
    Seems like the trades just hang around in one price level until you have to head to the loo.
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  10. #4435
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    $GBPUSD 4-Hour/60M Chart #Elliottwave Counts: Rebond Possible

    $GBPUSD 4-Hour/60M Chart #Elliottwave Counts: Rebond Possible
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  11. #4436
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    If we get a break of 1.5680 high then we will have the possibility to scalp to 1,5720.

    As the london session closes in about 1 hr - it can also be interesting to try long positions from this morning low - its extremely high risk and not my cup of tea - but research show that range trading strategies work better after the London close.

  12. #4437
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    Very Detailed GBPUSD Analysis for week Beginning 2/5/2013

    Analysis

    Tue 2/5/13

    Bollinger Bands Indicator:

    Conventional Interpretation: The Bollinger Bands are indicating an oversold condition. An oversold reading occurs when the close is nearer to the bottom band than the top band.

    Additional Analysis: The market appears oversold, but may continue to become more oversold before reversing. Look for some price strength before taking any bullish positions based on this indicator.

    Mov Avg 3 lines Indicator:

    Note: In evaluating the short term, plot1 represents the fast moving average, and plot2 is the slow moving average. For the longer term analysis, plot2 is the fast moving average and plot3 is the slow moving average

    Conventional Interpretation - Short Term: The market is bearish because the fast moving average is below the slow moving average.

    Additional Analysis - Short Term: The market is EXTREMELY BEARISH. Everything in this indicator is pointing to lower prices: the fast average is below the slow average; the fast average is on a downward slope from the previous bar; the slow average is on a downward slope from the previous bar; and price is below the fast average and the slow average.

    Conventional Interpretation - Long Term: The market is bearish because the fast moving average is below the slow moving average.

    Additional Analysis - Long Term: The market is EXTREMELY BEARISH. Everything in this indicator is pointing to lower prices: the fast average is below the slow average; the fast average is on a downward slope from the previous bar; the slow average is on a downward slope from the previous bar; and price is below the fast average and the slow average.

    Mov Avg-Exponential Indicator:

    Conventional Interpretation: Price is below the moving average so the trend is down.

    Additional Analysis: Market trend is DOWN.

    RSI Indicator:

    Conventional Interpretation: RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 33.95). This indicator issues buy signals when the RSI line dips below the bottom line into the oversold zone; a sell signal is generated when the RSI rises above the top line into the overbought zone.

    Additional Analysis: RSI is somewhat oversold (RSI is at 33.95), but given the 45 bar new low here, greater oversold levels are likely.

    Stochastic - Fast Indicator:

    Conventional Interpretation: The SlowK line crossed below the SlowD line; this indicates a sell signal. The stochastic is in oversold territory (SlowK is at 6.90; this indicates a possible market rise is coming.

    Additional Analysis: The long term trend is DOWN. The short term trend is DOWN. Don't be fooled looking for a bottom here because of this indicator. The stochastic indicator is only good at picking bottoms in a Bull Market (in which we are not). Exit short positions only if some other indicator tells you to.

    Stochastic - Slow Indicator:

    Conventional Interpretation: The SlowK line crossed below the SlowD line; this indicates a sell signal. The stochastic is in oversold territory (SlowK is at 13.21); this indicates a possible market rise is coming.

    Additional Analysis: The long term trend is DOWN. The short term trend is DOWN. Don't be fooled looking for a bottom here because of this indicator. The stochastic indicator is only good at picking bottoms in a Bull Market (in which we are not). Exit short positions only if some other indicator tells you to.

    Swing Index Indicator:

    Conventional Interpretation: The swing index has crossed zero, identifying this bar as a short term pivot point.

    Additional Analysis: No additional interpretation.

    Volatility Indicator: Volatility is trending up based on a 9 bar moving average.

    Volume Indicator:

    Conventional Interpretation: The current new low is accompanied by increasing volume, suggesting further new lows are ahead.

    Additional Analysis: The long term market trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is DOWN. The short term market trend, based on a 5 bar moving average, is DOWN.The current new low is accompanied by increasing volume, suggesting further new lows are ahead. However, be careful to avoid selling an oversold market. RSI or MACD may be helpful here.

    ADX Indicator:

    Conventional Interpretation: ADX measures the strength of the prevailing trend. A rising ADX indicates a strong underlying trend while a falling ADX suggests a weakening trend which is subject to reversal. Currently the ADX is rising.

    Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is down. A rising ADX indicates that the current trend is healthy and should remain intact. Look for the current downtrending market to continue.

    Comm Channel Index Indicator:

    Conventional Interpretation: CCI (-100.22) has crossed into the bearish region, issuing a sell short signal. CCI will signal liquidation of this position when the CCI value crosses back into the neutral center region.

    Additional Analysis: CCI often misses the early part of a new move because of the large amount of time spent out of the market in the neutral region. Initiating signals when CCI crosses zero, rather than waiting for CCI to cross out of the neutral region can often help overcome this. Given this interpretation, CCI (-100.22) is currently short. The current short position will be reversed when the CCI crosses above zero. Adding bearish pressure, the market just put in a 45 bar new low.

    DMI Indicator:

    Conventional Interpretation: DMI+ is less than DMI-, indicating a downward trending market. A signal is generated when DMI+ crosses DMI-.

    Additional Analysis: DMI is in bearish territory. And, the market put in a 45 bar new low here, adding bearish pressure.

    MACD Indicator:

    Conventional Interpretation: MACD is in bearish territory, but has not issued a signal here. MACD generates a signal when the FastMA crosses above or below the SlowMA.

    Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is DOWN. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is DOWN. MACD is in bearish territory. Further, the market just put in a 45 bar new low here. More lows are possible here.

    Momentum Indicator:

    Conventional Interpretation: Momentum (-0.02) is below zero, indicating an oversold market.

    Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is DOWN. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is DOWN. Momentum is in bearish territory. And, the market put in a 45 bar new low here. More lows are possible.

    Open Interest Indicator: Open Interest is trending up based on a 9 bar moving average. This is normal as delivery approaches and indicates increased liquidity.

    Rate of change Indicator:

    Conventional Interpretation: Rate of Change (-1.16) is below zero, indicating an oversold market.

    Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is DOWN. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is DOWN. Rate of Change is in bearish territory. And, the market put in a 45 bar new low here. More lows are possible.

    Important: This commentary is designed solely as a training tool for the understanding of technical analysis of the financial markets. It is not designed to provide any investment or other professional advice.
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  13. #4438
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alejandro Zambrano View Post
    If we get a break of 1.5680 high then we will have the possibility to scalp to 1,5720.

    As the london session closes in about 1 hr - it can also be interesting to try long positions from this morning low - its extremely high risk and not my cup of tea - but research show that range trading strategies work better after the London close.
    Thanks Alejandro. Being a scalper, this statistic is good to know!

    Cheers!
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  14. #4439
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod View Post
    Thanks Alejandro. Being a scalper, this statistic is good to know!

    Cheers!
    15720 would make me a very tidy sum.... If only!

  15. #4440
    carlh is offline Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by carlh View Post
    putting my shorts on...

    target 1.55
    closed this for a whopping profit of 6.4 pips... and it only took 24 hours (D'oh)
    Not quite a chicken dinner... maybe a chicken nugget :P

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