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Thread: Discuss GBP/USD - H2 2012

  1. #3541
    Gregory McLeod's Avatar
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    Opening Range Breakout Trade Worked for +18.5 Pips

    Opening Range Breakout Trade Worked for +18.5 Pips

    GBPUSD 5-Minute Chart 30-minute range 1.6145-1.6136 broke south and in a little over an hour garnered 18.5 pips
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  2. #3542
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    DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index Points to more Dollar losses

    Quote Originally Posted by maverick24ng View Post
    hey, what is the SSI?
    SSI Details:

    EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -2.21 as approximately 31% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was -1.90; 35% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 7.2% lower than yesterday and 12.8% above levels seen last week. Short positions are 7.8% higher than yesterday and 5.7% below levels seen last week. Open interest is 2.6% higher than yesterday and 1.6% above its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are short gives signal that the EURUSD may continue higher. Current SSI is lower than yesterday and higher from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further mixed trading bias.

    GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -2.58 as approximately 28% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was -2.03; 33% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 15.7% lower than yesterday and 10.8% below levels seen last week. Short positions are 7.2% higher than yesterday and 0.4% above levels seen last week. Open interest is 0.4% lower than yesterday and 9.1% below its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are short gives signal that the GBPUSD may continue higher. Current SSI is lower than yesterday and lower from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further bullish trading bias.

    GBPJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at -3.12 as approximately 24% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was -3.07; 25% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 2.3% lower than yesterday and 7.5% below levels seen last week. Short positions are 0.7% lower than yesterday and 10.0% above levels seen last week. Open interest is 1.1% lower than yesterday and 9.6% above its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are short gives signal that the GBPJPY may continue higher. Current SSI is lower than yesterday and lower from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further bullish trading bias.

    USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.47 as approximately 59% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was 1.62; 62% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 3.1% lower than yesterday and 6.3% below levels seen last week. Short positions are 7.3% higher than yesterday and 11.3% above levels seen last week. Open interest is 0.8% higher than yesterday and 5.4% below its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are long gives signal that the USDJPY may continue lower. Current SSI is lower than yesterday and lower from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further mixed trading bias.

    USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 2.93 as approximately 75% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was 2.67; 73% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 3.2% higher than yesterday and 12.7% below levels seen last week. Short positions are 6.0% lower than yesterday and 2.1% above levels seen last week. Open interest is 0.7% higher than yesterday and 0.3% above its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are long gives signal that the USDCHF may continue lower. Current SSI is higher than yesterday and lower from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further mixed trading bias.

    USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 2.35 as approximately 70% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was 2.32; 70% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 1.1% higher than yesterday and 14.5% above levels seen last week. Short positions are 0.1% higher than yesterday and 11.7% below levels seen last week. Open interest is 0.8% higher than yesterday and 6.5% above its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are long gives signal that the USDCAD may continue lower. Current SSI is higher than yesterday and higher from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further bearish trading bias.

    AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at -3.89 as approximately 20% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was -3.12; 24% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 8.9% lower than yesterday and 15.1% below levels seen last week. Short positions are 13.3% higher than yesterday and 16.4% above levels seen last week. Open interest is 8.0% higher than yesterday and 15.0% above its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are short gives signal that the AUDUSD may continue higher. Current SSI is lower than yesterday and lower from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further bullish trading bias.

    NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at -5.97 as approximately 14% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was -6.25; 14% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 5.7% higher than yesterday and 2.2% below levels seen last week. Short positions are 1.0% higher than yesterday and 115.0% above levels seen last week. Open interest is 1.7% higher than yesterday and 69.2% above its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are short gives signal that the NZDUSD may continue higher. Current SSI is higher than yesterday and lower from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further mixed trading bias.

    EURCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURCHF stands at 6.90 as approximately 87% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was 7.69; 88% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 2.9% lower than yesterday and 5.3% above levels seen last week. Short positions are 8.2% higher than yesterday and 11.1% below levels seen last week. Open interest is 1.7% lower than yesterday and 14.3% below its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are long gives signal that the EURCHF may continue lower. Current SSI is lower than yesterday and higher from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further mixed trading bias.

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  3. #3543
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    Markets Pressure Law Makers to Move

    If you remember the beginnings of the Financial crisis with the meltdown of Lehman Brothers, government policy action did not take place unless the markets moved sharply lower. The S&P dropping to 666 got the attention of US lawmakers to roll out TARP and other bailout measures.

    Bernanke has repeatedly said that the US economic problems can only be resolved from the fiscal rather than the monetary side of the equation.

    If Bernanke does not announce additional QE, the markets could move lower and, once again, force lawmakers to resolve the fiscal problems of the US.

    Will Bernanke pass up a great opportunity to help lawmakers get off the fence and find a resolution to the US Debt woes?
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  4. #3544
    Dimake's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod View Post
    Anyone short GBPUSD?
    Yep, I took the shot at 1.6145 but it's risky so I'll palce a stop at 1.6160
    edit: I was stopped this is to crazy for me i'll wait till will settles down
    Last edited by Dimake; 12-12-2012 at 12:53 PM.
    Thank you Stryker
    Thank you Cody
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  5. #3545
    Gregory McLeod's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dimake View Post
    Yep, I took the shot at 1.6145 but it's risky so I'll palce a stop at 1.6160
    Good thing you had a stop as GBPUSD as rallied after FOMC leaves rates unchanged, replaces Operation Twist with the purchse of 40 billion in Mortgage backed securities per month. Fed will keep rates low until US unemployment falls below 6.5%

    Fed removes date target and uses economic target. Currently, unemployment is at 7.7%. It could take 4-5 years to get to the Fed's target of 6.5%
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  6. #3546
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    $GBPUSD 5-Minute Chart U-Turn Back Through Range

    Quote Originally Posted by Dimake View Post
    Yep, I took the shot at 1.6145 but it's risky so I'll palce a stop at 1.6160
    edit: I was stopped this is to crazy for me i'll wait till will settles down
    The U-turn was simply WICKED! Weekly R1 was where I took profits as price could not penetrate that level. I was trying to get 20 pips and had 19.7 and it drifted to 18.5 so I just booked them. You can see cable rallying up from my exit back to the pre-market channel and there was a small bit of selling but then price skyrocketed to the other side of the range.

    I think we could get a fade back down but I wouldn't touch it again until it closes back below the channel (1.6134) I feel a fade coming on. But I do have a Euro short that is hurting right now.
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  7. #3547
    Dimake's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod View Post
    The U-turn was simply WICKED! Weekly R1 was where I took profits as price could not penetrate that level. I was trying to get 20 pips and had 19.7 and it drifted to 18.5 so I just booked them. You can see cable rallying up from my exit back to the pre-market channel and there was a small bit of selling but then price skyrocketed to the other side of the range.

    I think we could get a fade back down but I wouldn't touch it again until it closes back below the channel (1.6134) I feel a fade coming on. But I do have a Euro short that is hurting right now.
    I have been expected some upside moves but not so consistent and therefore I don't see any important resistance till 1.6240
    On your euro position if 1.3090 wont hold then 1.3120 next target and a probably sell entry for me
    Thank you Stryker
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  8. #3548
    danandsueco is offline Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dimake View Post
    Yep, I took the shot at 1.6145 but it's risky so I'll palce a stop at 1.6160
    edit: I was stopped this is to crazy for me i'll wait till will settles down
    I wish I caught this post earlier. 16160 was a bad place for a SL. That is a MAJOR supply area from 16163/94 and a resistance was at 16157.

    **added 4HR chartAttachment 170303
    Last edited by danandsueco; 12-12-2012 at 03:56 PM. Reason: Adding chart

  9. #3549
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    Quote Originally Posted by danandsueco View Post
    I wish I caught this post earlier. 16160 was a bad place for a SL. That is a MAJOR supply area from 16163/94 and a resistance was at 16157.

    **added 4HR chartAttachment 170303
    In normal conditions (some problems from my private life affecting my trading) I would be allowed it to run but I have already shorts on ej and au I'll stick to them
    Thank you Stryker
    Thank you Cody
    Plan the Trade and Trade the Plan

  10. #3550
    danandsueco is offline Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dimake View Post
    In normal conditions (some problems from my private life affecting my trading) I would be allowed it to run but I have already shorts on ej and au I'll stick to them
    With things going on in one's head trading sometimes leads to less than stellar trading. You're doing a good job so keep you head up.

  11. #3551
    JakeBenjamin is offline Member
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    Potential head and Shoulders showing up on GBP on the 30 minute charts...

  12. #3552
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    Quote Originally Posted by danandsueco View Post
    With things going on in one's head trading sometimes leads to less than stellar trading. You're doing a good job so keep you head up.
    Tnx buddy I'm doing my best, and regarding that short form 1.6145 it seems that in the end proved to be a winning move (if will go on like this I see a potentail TP around 1.6040)
    Thank you Stryker
    Thank you Cody
    Plan the Trade and Trade the Plan

  13. #3553
    JakeBenjamin is offline Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dimake View Post
    Tnx buddy I'm doing my best, and regarding that short form 1.6145 it seems that in the end proved to be a winning move (if will go on like this I see a potentail TP around 1.6040)

    Wow! You think its going to go that far down. Ive also got shorts, but my profits targets are much more conservative... around 1.606

  14. #3554
    Cipresko is offline Member
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    15min H&S

    GU is making possible H&S on 15 min chart, will short bellow 1.6114

    GL

  15. #3555
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    Quote Originally Posted by JakeBenjamin View Post
    Wow! You think its going to go that far down. Ive also got shorts, but my profits targets are much more conservative... around 1.606
    At 1.6040 I have support line for the moment

    Quote Originally Posted by Cipresko View Post
    GU is making possible H&S on 15 min chart, will short bellow 1.6114

    GL
    Indeed but cable must stay udner 1.6145 in order to see more downsides
    Thank you Stryker
    Thank you Cody
    Plan the Trade and Trade the Plan

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