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View Poll Results: What impact will the Bank of England Rate Decision have on the GBP/USD?

Voters
14. This poll is closed
  • Send GBP/USD Higher!

    8 57.14%
  • Send GBP/USD Lower!

    4 28.57%
  • The rate decision will not have a significant impact.

    2 14.29%
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  1. #22741
    fazi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by fazi View Post
    I`ve got the same thoughts - some fibs in addtion -61.8 off the august 2011 top is 1.6084, 61.8 off the may top is 1.6166. Previous up swings topped out exatly at 50% fibs from the said levels.

    70.7% are 1.6211 and 1.63 respectively - there can be an overshot. Timing is really good for an important top.

    Patryk
    I`m short now from monthly cam h3 - this is hourly delta no.3 top - no.4 ussually comes a few hours after no.3, sometimes 1-2 hrs i ftrend is strong. So I wouldn`t rule out another run at stops towards the end of the day. monthly cam h4 is at 1.6232.

    Anyway this is my sell zone.

    Patryk

  2. #22742
    fazi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ikee View Post
    The fat lady is singing. Eeyodelayahdee..........

    well done Sir

    Patryk

  3. #22743
    Howdyy is offline Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by fazi View Post
    I`m short now from monthly cam h3
    What is monthly cam h3?

  4. #22744
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    Quote Originally Posted by Howdyy View Post
    What is monthly cam h3?
    monthly camarilla h3 line - go short line - but I don`t like to follow up.

    Patryk

  5. #22745
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    Alejandro Zambrano is online now DailyFX Analyst and Forum Moderator
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    Charts from today's edition of the webinar Bulls vs. Bears @ The Trading Room 10:30 GMT (11:30 UK time or 06:30 EST Mon - Fri)

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  6. #22746
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    Gregory McLeod is offline DailyFX Moderator/Trader
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    Quote Originally Posted by melbgirl View Post
    I believe in technical analysis above fundamentals but I have to note that with the Olympic games this summer the pound would be hard pressed to underperform. Essentially I will be a dip buyer but right now we are bouncing against strong resistance around 1.61 and with the French and Greek elections looming I think we'll see some corrections over the next weeks and if we'll see a full on risk off move then of course the pound could also be under pressure.

    Having said that, I am long GBP/AUD aiming for a gap on the daily chart at 1.5841. We might have a "cup and handle" pattern there. I'm short GBP/JPY because of the negative RSI divergence though that trade is a bit underwater, but I am keeping it at this point.
    Hey melgirl! I believe the same thing. When the UK needs to outlay a lot of cash, the pound mysteriously rises. If you are buying supplies and equipment for the Olympic games and attracting millions of tourists, a stronger currency is very beneficial.

    Also, I am going on holiday as well from 4/24 to 5/1 which usually means GBP goes straight up when I am not in front of my computer!
    Last edited by Gregory McLeod; 04-20-2012 at 08:44 AM.
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  7. #22747
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod View Post
    Hello Patryk! I agree that there is a lot of event risk that could send the dollar higher. However, the proverbial "crowd" thinks so too. Now in Texas, we have an old saying that, "even a blind squirrel can find a nut" so the crowd could be right but in most cases they are wrong and that is where SSI could come in handy:

    GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -3.82 as nearly 79% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -4.30 as 81% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 10.4% higher than yesterday and 13.2% weaker since last week. Short positions are 1.8% lower than yesterday and 25.8% stronger since last week. Open interest is 0.5% stronger than yesterday and 25.0% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD gains.
    Those "squirrels" went hungry today!
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  8. #22748
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    Busted GBP/USD 4-Hour Head and Shoulders Pattern Triggering Short Squeeze Rally

    Busted GBP/USD 4-Hour Head and Shoulders Pattern Triggering Short Squeeze Rally. Price Move above right shoulder triggering stops near 1.6000 area.
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  9. #22749
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    Quote Originally Posted by fazi View Post
    I`m short now from monthly cam h3 - this is hourly delta no.3 top - no.4 ussually comes a few hours after no.3, sometimes 1-2 hrs i ftrend is strong. So I wouldn`t rule out another run at stops towards the end of the day. monthly cam h4 is at 1.6232.

    Anyway this is my sell zone.

    Patryk
    I`m out of the short - no.3 top has been breached so we should drift higher towards the end of the day. I have a sell stop below 1.6084 (no.4 bottom) in case of a sudden death, but given still rising shorts I`m not comfortable with shorting yet. Large option barier has been tosted at 1.61 - I`ll try my luck higher when short side gets less crowded.

    Patryk

  10. #22750
    Howdyy is offline Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by fazi View Post
    I`m out of the short - no.3 top has been breached so we should drift higher towards the end of the day. I have a sell stop below 1.6084 (no.4 bottom) in case of a sudden death, but given still rising shorts I`m not comfortable with shorting yet. Large option barier has been tosted at 1.61 - I`ll try my luck higher when short side gets less crowded.

    Patryk
    Funny. I was just going to post that I will join you Fazi on your short. I went short around 6105. Price bounced off the weekly R3 pivot (floor).

  11. #22751
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod View Post
    Busted GBP/USD 4-Hour Head and Shoulders Pattern Triggering Short Squeeze Rally. Price Move above right shoulder triggering stops near 1.6000 area.
    Yikes is a good word for that SSI level - we haven`t seen it for a while - 1.63 -1.65 seems reasonable

    Patryk

  12. #22752
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  13. #22753
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    Quote Originally Posted by Howdyy View Post
    Funny. I was just going to post that I will join you Fazi on your short. I went short around 6105. Price bounced off the weekly R3 pivot (floor).
    It is funny indeed. SSI is quite extreme here - could be the indication of top, or some stops need to be taken out. I trust my hourly 8 point rotation. More upside is likley once 9.30 GMT top (no.3) was breached. But it is friday and no.5 top may come as an early surprise (ussually late asia time) -that why my sell stop is in.

    Patryk

  14. #22754
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    Quote Originally Posted by fazi View Post
    It is funny indeed. SSI is quite extreme here - could be the indication of top, or some stops need to be taken out. I trust my hourly 8 point rotation. More upside is likley once 9.30 GMT top (no.3) was breached. But it is friday and no.5 top may come as an early surprise (ussually late asia time) -that why my sell stop is in.

    Patryk
    Fazi, there is a FIB target at around 16170 minimum. That might be a better place for shorts for me, if it gets there. If it doesn't, well, never mind.

  15. #22755
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    Quote Originally Posted by Franosh View Post
    Fazi, there is a FIB target at around 16170 minimum. That might be a better place for shorts for me, if it gets there. If it doesn't, well, never mind.
    Yes I know - possibly higher - here is a chart with an indicator called ganbox144 (360,720). Cable rarely makes moves bigger than 144 line without retracement, but sometimes it does.

    edit: -wrong chart will repost soon

    edit: ok - that is the one -144 line from 1.58 comes at 1.6163 - good place to short

    Patryk
    Last edited by fazi; 04-20-2012 at 09:45 AM.

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