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05-31-2009, 07:51 PM #151
Hello John. In retrospect as you know, you can gain an idea of what the market condition was like previously. In real time, it can be quite challenging to detect it changing. I have a couple of ideas I am cooking up in the kitchen, but I have not confirmed if they are useful yet. As any other indicator, they will work sometimes, and other times they won't come close. Right now, you'll have to take clues from the market and try to piece it together.
Originally Posted by OmR
Tools that may help the thought process of determining what might happen include the calendar of events, SSI, and ATR.
One example regarding news events I have noticed over the past few months is that the first week of the month and this week in particular is heavy on news releases and central bank rate decisions. Lately, the market seems to be quiet and perhaps ranging at those times as the big traders haven't been wanting to participate. That has been the trend lately and again, its hard to tell when the market changes its mind.
Stay tuned and I'll formalize these ideas and see how they 'taste'...
06-04-2009, 02:50 PM #152
Low Equity Portfolio Update
Over the past 30 days, our Low Equity Portfolio has increased approximately 10% to $4,136.43. This portfolio was created for the small investor in mind. The drawdowns and maximum number of positions are limited in an effort to reduce the volatility of the portfolio.
We did recently swap out the PipSniper EURUSD and added in its place the DBSwing EURUSD. Most of the trading activty and the losses in the portfolio were coming from PipSniper. As you will find with most any strategy, strategies are geared towards specific market conditions and tend to do well under certain conditions. When those conditions no longer exist, the system will experience draw down.
Since our portfolio was heavily traded towards the one strategy, we replaced it.
06-18-2009, 04:58 PM #153
InsiderBreakout GBPJPY Review
The GBPJPY is known for its volatility...mix a volatile pair into volatile market conditions and hold on for the ride.
The Insider Breakout GBPJPY is a system designed to look for breakouts and it trys to squeeze as much as possible from those breakouts. When times are quiet and volatility is low, you will begin to see extended time periods of drawdowns.
As experience tells us, extremely volatile conditions can stress any strategy. When the markets sold off hard in the 4th quarter of 2008, the InsiderBreakout GBPJPY also went through a hard and fast drawdown (look at the ATR on the bottom of the chart of the GBPJPY spot price...800+ pips on average per day!!). As a trader, you must be aware that these types of drawdowns can occur at any time. Aside from those extremely volatile conditions, I like how this system has behaved. If I were to choose to trade this system, I would keep an eye on the overall conditions. If the markets begin to behave and react like it did in Oct/Nov 2008, then consider turning the system off to preserve capital.
06-21-2009, 03:20 AM #154
06-21-2009, 04:44 PM #155
Ni hao Xiao.
Originally Posted by Xiao
That indicator on my chart is the Average True Range or ATR. It is a common indicator that you will find in many charting packages that provides the average bar movement for each bar in pips. Since the chart was a daily chart, the ATR represented the average daily movement of the GBPJPY.
There are a couple of resources I can point out to you regarding candlestick patterns. The first is that we discuss the common patterns in our FX Powercourse. We also look at real time examples of how they can be used to help in determine entry and exit points. Press HERE for more information regarding the course. We do cover other topics in addition to candlestick patterns and how to use them to find high probability trade set ups.
The second is that you can learn some information about the common candlestick patterns at THIS LINK. The challenge with reading a book or doing internet searches is that you may not have the personal interaction with the instructors like you would with the instructors of our course. So you will have to consider that when finding resources to learn from.
06-21-2009, 05:58 PM #156
Last edited by Xiao; 06-22-2009 at 10:46 AM.
06-22-2009, 03:22 AM #157
NI HAO J.R Sir..
Originally Posted by Jeremy Wagner
Um I would like to know about System selector , Yes I trade in 5 Minute Chart Could you tell me the System Selector Works on 5 Minute chart term Trader Also..ummm,,
And Could you tell me i have One Big Misunderstanding about Economy NEWS,,,
If You see On Thursday News About USD GDP Q1....So when it Going to Effect to The Currency Pair... when,, an Hour or an Minute etc,..
Thank you ,, want Noodle
06-22-2009, 10:43 AM #158
06-22-2009, 01:38 PM #159
Reverse-trading on FSS
I want to start experimenting with using the reverse option to profit from under-performing systems. Rather than try to re-invent the wheel, I wonder if anyone can share some basic principles for:
1. interpreting the indicators on under-performing systems, and
2. choosing a good system to reverse-trade
Thanks in anticipation
06-22-2009, 03:38 PM #160
Originally Posted by Xiao
You can search through the available systems to find those that typically hold their trades open for shorter amounts of time. When you open a demo account and log in, go to the PERFORMANCE tab at the top of the platform. Then, make sure the ATT box is checked which represents the Average Trade Time in hours. (See picture below)
Those systems that trade off smaller time framed charts will hold the trades open for shorter amounts of time. You can use the filters above to sort through the systems and find some that you like.
If you would like more information regarding the FSS and how to navigate it, you can review a recorded copy of the webinar from last week at this link :
Building Your Portfolio with FSS - DailyFX Forum
Regarding the news release, it is difficult to predict how traders may react to news releases. Most professional traders will stand aside and let the news get digested before entering the market. Trading the News is quite risky and predicting the direction of the market upon the release is very difficult. I personally choose to stay away from news releases because there are many other trading days and opportunities over the course of the week/month.
06-22-2009, 05:49 PM #161
Originally Posted by babytrader
Check out this post on some stats to look at when generating a list of reverse systems.
REVERSE SYSTEM POST
The first place I look is at the RAR. Since -1.0 is the smallest RAR possible, start off by looking for systems that are as close to -1.0 RAR as feasible. This means their net loss in pips is as large as their max drawdown. Said another way, they don't have any net positive pip collection and they are at the bottom of their expanding drawdown...kind of like trend trading to the down side.
One system that has been showing up over the past couple months on reverse is the PipRancher USDCAD. I have been following it since Feb. I wouldn't put all of my eggs in this 1 system. But, it could be a supplement to another one or two systems in the portfolio.
06-23-2009, 01:29 AM #162
Re: Reverse-trading on FSS
Thanks, Jeremy, for your notes on reverse trading.
But you said "Since some of these systems are so poor, they may not be placing trades anymore...." That implies that there are some systems still listed on the platform which are no longer sending signals. Is that true? Cos I was wondering why I added Base-Hit to my portfolio a few days ago, but to date I have not seen a trade.
06-23-2009, 01:41 AM #163
I have placed 4 systems in my portfolio - 3 forward and 1 reverse, but I still find that only about 1% of my margin is utilized in trades at any one time. So my money is lying fallow most of the time. How can I optimize my margin (ie put up to 90% of it to work) without committing more than a standard lot to each trade?
06-23-2009, 01:55 AM #164
I just read some posts on the new rules on hedging in the US. Can someone please explain hedging to me (or point me to where it has been explained), what the "Hedging =Y" on my FSS portfolio page means and how the new US rules affect my trading on FSS.
06-23-2009, 07:58 PM #165
Originally Posted by babytrader
I have noticed that some systems have not traded in quite some time. You can identify those systems by looking at their trade details in the PERFORMANCE page of the FSS platform. There is a button where you can look at the actual trades they have placed while being a part of the FSS family. That way, you are not picking a system that hasn't traded for several months and expecting something out of it.
Your account won't necessarily receive signals right away. Again, look at the trade details to gain an understanding of how often they have been sending trades in the past. Maybe that system only does 1 or 2 trades a week. You can tell by looking at their Trade Details.