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Thread: Trending: Alejandro's weekly ideas

  1. #1
    Alejandro Zambrano's Avatar
    Alejandro Zambrano is offline DailyFX Analyst and Forum Moderator
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    Trending: Alejandro's weekly ideas

    In this section I will be publishing my weekly outlook of the markets - for my short term updates use the link below.

    http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/forum...-analysis.html
    Last edited by Alejandro Zambrano; 06-04-2013 at 10:00 AM.
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  2. #2
    Alejandro Zambrano's Avatar
    Alejandro Zambrano is offline DailyFX Analyst and Forum Moderator
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    Trending
    August 19 - 2013

    Markets that I think are worthwhile keeping an eye on this week are GBPUSD, GBPSEK, NZDCAD, AUDNZD, USDTRY and USDMXN.

    The reason for this is that they are trending strongly and will most likley continue to do so. They will most likley reach levels that many people assume are unreasonable but these markets are now parabolic so their directional bias will remain strong.

    Trading strong markets will in general make it easier for the trader to generate a positive return as gains are bigger than losses if we trade in line with the trend, the trader can also be a bit less careful with his entries as the trend will save him if he does not get a perfect entry. Also the trader will see his gains develop quickly as price swings in line with the trend will usually be fast.

    There are many ways to measure a trend; my way to know if we are trending strongly is to apply the Bollinger bands® with the standard settings on the daily time frame and look for markets that are riding the Bollinger band®

    This means that price is pushing/widening the bands - as seen below all of our markets are doing this. Backtested studies on the EURUSD shows that the average signal will last for about 18 days. The same assumption is expected to hold of the markets below.

    To use this information to create an actionable trading setups I would use the 30 min or 4 hour time frame to plot important levels and zones where the risk reward ratio is good. I would follow the same structure as in my daily webinars.

    USDTRY
    Name:  USDTRY.png
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    GBPUSD
    Name:  GBPUSD.png
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    AUDNZD
    Name:  AUNZD.png
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    NZDUSD
    Name:  NZDCAD.png
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    GBPSEK
    Name:  GBPSEK.png
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    USDMXN
    Name:  USDMXN.png
Views: 15183
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    Last edited by Daniel at DailyFX; 10-22-2013 at 11:51 AM.
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  3. #3
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    Alejandro Zambrano is offline DailyFX Analyst and Forum Moderator
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    Trending
    August 27 - 2013

    This week's markets to keep an eye on are USDZAR, USDTRY, USDNOK, GBPAUD and USDCAD.

    The reason for this is that they are trending strongly and will most likley continue to do so. They will most likley reach levels that many people assume are unreasonable but these markets are now parabolic so their directional bias will remain strong.

    Trading strong markets will in general make it easier for the trader to generate a positive return as gains are bigger than losses if we trade in line with the trend, the trader can also be a bit less careful with his entries as the trend will save him if he does not get a perfect entry. Also the trader will see his gains develop quickly as price swings in line with the trend will usually be fast.

    There are many ways to measure a trend; my way to know if we are trending strongly is use apply the Bollinger bands® with the standard settings on the daily time frame and look for markets that are riding the Bollinger band®

    This means that price is pushing/widening the bands - as seen below all of our markets are doing this. Backtested studies on the EURUSD shows that the average signal will last for about 18 days. The same assumption is expected to hold of the markets below.

    To use this information to create an actionable trading setups I would use the 30 min or 4 hour time frame to plot important levels and zones where the risk reward ratio is good. I would follow the same structure as in my daily webinars.


    All charts below are 24 hour charts

    USDZAR - As long as we trade above 10.1650 this market should maintain is bullish momentum.
    Name:  USDZAR.png
Views: 15169
Size:  39.6 KB

    USDTRY - As long as we trade above 1.9730 this market should maintain is bullish momentum.
    Name:  USDTRY.png
Views: 15242
Size:  28.4 KB

    USDNOK - As long as we trade above 5.8415 this market should maintain is bullish momentum.
    Name:  USDNOK.png
Views: 15462
Size:  41.9 KB



    GBPAUD - As long as we trade above 1.69 this market should maintain is bullish momentum.
    Name:  GBPAUD.png
Views: 15417
Size:  38.5 KB


    USDCAD - As long as we trade above 1.0290 this market should maintain is bullish momentum. Price can easily trade lower and reach 1.0350/1.04 but I expect price to create a new low in this region.
    Name:  USDCAD.png
Views: 15404
Size:  45.8 KB
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  4. #4
    Alejandro Zambrano's Avatar
    Alejandro Zambrano is offline DailyFX Analyst and Forum Moderator
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    Trending
    September 2 - 2013

    This week we are looking at some really exotic pairs, of a list of 55 pairs I have selected 6 currencies; EURPLN, USDPLN, USDHUF, USDNOK, GBPSEK and USDTRY.

    Last week's report showed GBPAUD and USDNOK as good picks. I traded them and got 2 gains and 2 losses. The Gains exceed the Losses with 5.19 times.

    We will host a weekly webinar based on this research starting from next week - register now https://www2.gotomeeting.com/register/632924170

    Many of this week's pairs happen to be exotic but the only reason for picking these currencies is because they show a clear bias.

    EURPLN and USDPLN are my favorites and could work as a good trade because we avoid most the the fundamental volatility as the ECB meeting and the NFP report.

    The setup's below show a rough idea of the expected path of the currencies, any trade would at the end depend on when the 30 minute time frame is in sync with the trend of the daily time frame as shown below. Check out the video about my multiple time frame system here .

    EURPLN I am bullish as long as we trade above 4.2222 and we should be able to reach 4.30 and beyond. USDPLN: I am bullish as long as we trade above 3.1485 and I would preferably to see correction to the 3.20 area before going long or long on a bullish breakout. We should be able to reach 3.31.
    Name:  PLN.PNG
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    USDHUF, I am bullish as long as we trade above 223.60 yet in the 30 min time frame we can clearly see that 226 is support and is therefore acting as the first interesting base for a long position. USDTRY price is correcting and after a 50% correction I am expecting price to bounce. I am bullish as long as we trade above 1.94.
    Name:  huf1.PNG
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    USDNOK - I am bullish as long as we trade above 5.99 and I am expecting us to reach 6.20. GBPSEK I am bullish as long as we trade above 10.10 and I am expecting 10.30 to be reached.
    Name:  Nok.PNG
Views: 14940
Size:  97.2 KB


    We will host a weekly webinar based on this research starting from next week - register now https://www2.gotomeeting.com/register/632924170

    Thanks
    Alejandro
    Last edited by Daniel at DailyFX; 10-22-2013 at 11:50 AM.
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  5. #5
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    Alejandro Zambrano is offline DailyFX Analyst and Forum Moderator
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    Trending
    September 9 - 2013


    This week I am focusing on the following pairs: EURPLN, USDPLN, GBPJPY, NZDJPY and GBPSEK.

    These currencies are interesting as they are exhibit strong trends. We can see this as they are ridding/pushing against one of their outer ©Bollinger Bands. A close outside of the outer ©Bollinger Band tends to leads to strong trends.

    Studies on EURUSD showed that the following happened on a strong close above the outer Bollinger band.

    Bullish/Bearish signal

    • Average signal will last for 18 trading days but we have extreme signals that extend over 45 trading days.
    • 92% of the time the signals will last for at least 5 days.
    • On average gains will start to accumulate from day 6 to 12.
    • On average after the signal, price will be flat or drop with about 1% but not more that 1.5% in most cases
    • After 10 trading days we will have return of about 1.1% and 2% after 18 days.


    We will host a weekly webinar based on this research starting from this week - register now https://www2.gotomeeting.com/register/632924170

    The setup's below show a rough idea of the expected path of the currencies but any trade would at the end depend on the trend of the 30 minute time frame, we want the 30 minute time frame to be is in sync with the trend of the daily time frame as shown below. Check out the video about my multiple time frame system


    EURPLN
    Price is currently trading against its trend on the daily time frame but should be able to create a low from current levels down to 4.2475. A proper reversal will most likley occur tomorrow morning as the London session starts.
    Name:  EURPLN.png
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    USDPLN
    Price has almost traded a bit too low for me to consider this setup but as long as we trade above 3.20 then I would wait for price to settle and bounce. The reason for the strong decline is the Euro which is giving the USD a bit of a hard time. This should reverse and settle in about 2 days time.
    Name:  USDPLN.png
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    NZDJPY
    Price is very strong and is aiming for 80.60. A breakout above this level should take us to 82. I am bullish as long as we trade above 78. This is a very strong market where buying dips against the prior day's low is usually a good strategy.
    Name:  NZDJPY.png
Views: 12905
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    GBPJPY
    The trend is very strong here as well and I am really looking forward to see a dip to 155. A dip to this level will most likley be bought. I am bullish as long as we trade above 154 and expecting us to reach 156.85. 158.80 is the next target if taking out 156.85.
    Name:  GBPJPY.png
Views: 12896
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    GBPSEK
    The Swedish Krona is trading strongly against the prevailing trend and we are about 1.5 days form a reversal. I would like to see price settle close to this week's S1 level before considering a long position.
    Name:  GBPSEK.png
Views: 12905
Size:  44.6 KB

    We will host a weekly webinar based on this research starting from this week - register now https://www2.gotomeeting.com/register/632924170

    Thanks
    Alejandro
    Last edited by Daniel at DailyFX; 10-22-2013 at 11:47 AM.
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  6. #6
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    Alejandro Zambrano is offline DailyFX Analyst and Forum Moderator
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    Trending
    September 17 - 2013


    This week I am focusing on the following pairs: EURGBP, GBPCAD, GBPSEK, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDZAR.

    These currencies pairs are interesting as they are exhibit strong trends. We can see this as they are ridding/pushing against their outer ©Bollinger Band. A close outside of the outer ©Bollinger Band tends to leads to strong trends.

    We host a weekly webinar based on this research every Monday at 18:00 BST - register now to join the next session https://www2.gotomeeting.com/register/632924170


    Bullish/Bearish signal


    • Average signal will last for 18 trading days but we have extreme signals that extend over 45 trading days.
    • 92% of the time the signals will last for at least 5 days.
    • On average gains will start to accumulate from day 6 to 12.
    • On average after the signal, price will be flat or drop with about 1% but not more that 1.5% in most cases
    • After 10 trading days we will have return of about 1.1% and 2% after 18 days.



    The setups below shows a rough idea of the expected path of the respective currency pair but any trade would at the end depend on the trend of the 30 minute time frame, we want the 30 minute time frame to be in sync with the trend of the daily time frame as shown below. Check out the video about my multiple time frame system

    EURGBP
    This is a currency that has been trading very strongly lately and something that we have been talking a lot about in our daily webinars. I expect price to continue to trade lower as long as we trade under 84.40 which is this week’s R1 level of the Pivot point indicator. I am expecting price to reach 83 as long as we trade under 84.40.

    Name:  EURGBP.png
Views: 10947
Size:  21.5 KB

    GBPCAD
    Price has been trading sideways for almost 17 days but now looks ready to breakout higher. A break above 1.65 opens up for a move to 1.71 over the next few weeks. I am however only interested to keep positions trough out this week and assume that we will reach 1.66 and potentially 1.6650 as long as we trade above 1.6250.

    Name:  GBPCAD.png
Views: 10514
Size:  27.6 KB


    USDZAR
    As long as we trade under 10.00 I am expecting price to reach 6.62
    Name:  USDZAR.png
Views: 10512
Size:  29.9 KB

    NZDJPY
    Price is ridding the band and breakout out of a range that has been dominating for 5 days. As long as we trade above 80.45 I am expecting price to reach 80.45.
    Name:  NZDJPY.png
Views: 10465
Size:  19.9 KB


    GBPSEK

    Price is trapped in a range but as long as we trade above 10.25 the trend remains bullish as seen below.
    Name:  GBPSEK.png
Views: 10472
Size:  28.9 KB

    GBPUSD
    Price is pushing hard against the outer band which is a clear sign of a strong trend. I would like to take advantage of this and see the trend as bullish as long as we trade above 1.5770. As long as we trade above this level I am assuming that we should be able to reach 1.6050.
    Name:  GBPUSD.png
Views: 10142
Size:  22.7 KB



    We host a weekly webinar based on this research every Monday at 18:00 BST - register now to join the next session https://www2.gotomeeting.com/register/632924170

    Thanks
    Alejandro
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  7. #7
    Alejandro Zambrano's Avatar
    Alejandro Zambrano is offline DailyFX Analyst and Forum Moderator
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    Update: Trending
    September 17 - 2013


    Here is an update on the markets that I am watching this week - please read the original article (Trending: Alejandro's weekly ideas) posted earlier this week if necessary.

    Link to join a webinar about this on Monday - https://www2.gotomeeting.com/register/632924170


    Of the markets that I am covering this week I still think there is value in USDZAR GBPCAD, GBPUSD and NZDJPY but I doubt that all of them will align so I can take advantage of their trends. See below for setups.

    USDZAR

    Price corrected to its Pivot Point level and as we can see below in the 30 minute time frame chart we have just taken out the 9.6195 support level created this morning. We should be able to reach 9.55 before the end of today as long as we trade under 9.6708. A break under 9.55 will allow us to reach 9.50 but I doubt that we will trade this low before the weekend.

    Name:  USDZAR.png
Views: 10363
Size:  22.4 KB

    NZDJPY
    I managed to get a decent profit on the NZDJPY setup shown to you on Monday and look forward to buy this on a dip. Price could definitively trade higher but for me to be happy to trade this I would like to see price create a low somewhere close to the 82 level as seen below.
    Name:  NZDJPY.png
Views: 10370
Size:  26.8 KB


    GBPCAD
    Price has reacted well by bouncing from the 1.6350 support area but as price dropped quickly to the support area I would like to see another test of support before assuming that we will trade higher. I would like to see the 20 period moving average seen below turn flat.
    Name:  GBPCAD.png
Views: 10357
Size:  25.2 KB

    GBPUSD
    I look forward to buy GBPUSD but I think we need to push lower before trading higher - we can clearly see that the 20 period moving average is weighing on price. Also I would like to see this bounce to happen after a 50% correction as seen below.
    Name:  GBPUSD.png
Views: 10353
Size:  22.3 KB

    Link to join a webinar about this on Monday - https://www2.gotomeeting.com/register/632924170
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  8. #8
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    Alejandro Zambrano is offline DailyFX Analyst and Forum Moderator
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    Trending
    September 23 - 2013


    Strong trends dominate this week as I managed to distil 15 currencies pairs that trade strongly this week, of these 15 pairs we will focus on 7 that are particular interesting.

    This week I am focusing on the following pairs: GBPCAD, GBPJPY, EURJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDNZD and USDCZK.

    These currencies pairs are interesting as they exhibit strong trends. We can see this as they are riding/pushing against their outer ©Bollinger Band. A close outside of the outer ©Bollinger Band tends to leads to strong trends. See below for explanation why we use the Bollinger Band.

    We host a weekly webinar based on this research every Monday at 17:30 BST - register now to join the next session https://www2.gotomeeting.com/register/632924170


    The setups below show a rough idea of the expected path of the respective currency pair but any trade would at the end depend on the trend of the 30 minute time frame. Check out the video about my multiple time frame system


    GBPCAD
    As long as we trade above 1.6340 the trend remains bullish in the daily time frame and we should expect that price will reach 1.67. Real overhead resistance is at 1.73.

    Name:  GBPCAD.png
Views: 9901
Size:  37.8 KB

    GBPJPY
    Price is correcting against its bullish trend on the daily time frame as seen below. Support is found at 156.70 and we should expect a bounce to occur somewhere above this level, most likely tonight or tomorrow morning. I am expecting price to reach 162 as long as we trade above 156.70.
    Name:  GBPJPY.png
Views: 8877
Size:  21.2 KB

    EURJPY
    As with GBPJPY we are trading higher and should assume that we will reach 136 as long as we trade above 131.60.
    Name:  EURJPY.png
Views: 8867
Size:  21.8 KB

    EURUSD
    Price is overbought and need to correct but most likely on Wednesday we will find decent low which will work as a base for long positions aiming for 1.3660. I am bullish as long as we trade above 1.3325.
    Name:  EURUSD.png
Views: 8856
Size:  26.4 KB

    GBPUSD

    Price is bullish as long as we trade above 1.5850 and I am assuming that we will reach 1.6150 and 1.62 as the highest level this week.
    Name:  GBPUSD.png
Views: 8859
Size:  21.6 KB


    AUDNZD
    The trend is bearish as long as we trade under 1.14 and I assuming that we will reach 1.12 as this pair rolls over in a few days.
    Name:  AUDNZD.png
Views: 8751
Size:  25.7 KB


    USDCZK
    Price has corrected almost 50% of the decline from September 9 and should peak at the current level over the next 2 days and then trade lower and reach 18.90. I am bearish as long as we trade under 19.50
    Name:  USDCZK.png
Views: 8746
Size:  35.9 KB


    Correlations
    The strong correlation of some of these pairs will cause to avoid certain combinations. I will avoid to be long EURUSD and GBPUSD at the same time, the same is true for EURJPY and GBPJPY. The other pairs are fairly uncorrelated.


    We host a weekly webinar based on this research every Monday at 17:30 BST - register now to join the next session https://www2.gotomeeting.com/register/632924170


    Bullish/Bearish signal



    • Average signal will last for 18 trading days but we have extreme signals that extend over 45 trading days.
    • 92% of the time the signals will last for at least 5 days.
    • On average gains will start to accumulate from day 6 to 12.
    • On average after the signal, price will be flat or drop with about 1% but not more that 1.5% in most cases
    • After 10 trading days we will have return of about 1.1% and 2% after 18 days.



    Thanks
    Alejandro
    Last edited by Daniel at DailyFX; 10-22-2013 at 11:44 AM.
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  9. #9
    Alejandro Zambrano's Avatar
    Alejandro Zambrano is offline DailyFX Analyst and Forum Moderator
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    Trending
    September 30 - 2013


    With weak volatility last week the number of interesting pairs have been reduced to just a few interesting pairs. Mainly GBP bullish ideas as Pound Sterling has been able to maintain its strength. Below is the complete list and as we can also see the AUDNZD and GBPCAD, which featured in last week's list, are still interesting as they are trending strongly.

    This week I am focusing on the following pairs: AUDNZD, USDCHF, GBPCAD, GBPAUD, and EURGBP

    The reason for picking these currencies is because they exhibit strong trends. We can see this as they are riding/pushing against their outer ©Bollinger Band. A close outside of the outer ©Bollinger Band tends to leads to strong trends. See below for characteristics of markets that ride the Bollinger Band.

    We host a weekly webinar based on this research every Monday at 17:30 BST - register now to join the next session https://www2.gotomeeting.com/register/632924170


    The setups below show a rough idea of the expected path of the respective currency pair but with any trade, it's important that the short term trend of the 30 minute time frame is in line with the trends shown below. Feel free to view a recording of my multiple time frame system to gain further understanding of this concept or join Monday's webinar.


    GBPCAD
    Price is clearly bullish and as mentioned last week there is no real resistance until the 1.72 level. In the short term and for us this week, I am anticipating that we should be able to reach 1.68 as long as we trade above 1.6425 which is level just below this week's S1 level of the Pivot Point Indicator.
    Name:  GBPCAD.png
Views: 8264
Size:  24.0 KB

    EURGBP
    Price took out the 83.50 daily low today which opens up for a further decline to 83 and 82.50 as long as we trade under 84.50. A correction to 84 should not surprise us and should most likely be used to short EURGBP.
    Name:  EURGBP.png
Views: 8278
Size:  26.3 KB

    GBPAUD
    Price closes above the outer Bollinger band which triggers a bullish signal and should take price to 1.7585 as long as we trade above 1.7050.

    Name:  GBPAUD.png
Views: 8273
Size:  31.0 KB

    USDCHF
    As long as we trade under 91.40 the down trend intact and we should assume a drop to 90 and 89.30.
    Name:  USDCHF.png
Views: 8263
Size:  38.7 KB


    AUDNZD
    AUDNZD traded lower as expected and is now threatening to take out last week's low. A break under the low should take price to 1.11 and to 1.10 alternatively a correction back to 1.1350 will most likely be used to short by traders.

    Name:  AUDNZD.png
Views: 8284
Size:  33.4 KB



    We host a weekly webinar based on this research every Monday at 17:30 BST - register now to join the next session https://www2.gotomeeting.com/register/632924170


    Bullish/Bearish signal



    • Average signal will last for 18 trading days but we have extreme signals that extend over 45 trading days.
    • 92% of the time the signals will last for at least 5 days.
    • On average gains will start to accumulate from day 6 to 12.
    • On average after the signal, price will be flat or drop with about 1% but not more that 1.5% in most cases
    • After 10 trading days we will have return of about 1.1% and 2% after 18 days.




    Thanks
    Alejandro
    Last edited by Alejandro Zambrano; 09-30-2013 at 12:25 PM.
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  10. #10
    Alejandro Zambrano's Avatar
    Alejandro Zambrano is offline DailyFX Analyst and Forum Moderator
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    Trending
    October 7 - 2013


    This week I am focusing on the following pairs: GBPCHF, GBPJPY, USDCHF, USDCZK, EURUS.

    The reason for picking these currencies is because they exhibit strong trends. We can see this as they are riding/pushing against their outer ©Bollinger Band on the Daily Time.

    After trending strongly over the last month Pound Sterling was sold off strongly on profit taking by the end of last week. At the same time safe haven currencies as CHF and JPY currencies gained against most currencies as fear of a potential US default is mounting.

    The theme for this is to see further Pound Sterling weakness against JPY and CHF. Playing on a comeback of risk i.e. less focus on a potential default in USA would be to bet on a stronger EURUSD, lower USDCHF and USDCZK.

    We host a weekly webinar based on this research every Monday at 17:30 BST - register now to join the next session https://www2.gotomeeting.com/register/632924170

    The setups below show a rough idea of the expected path of the respective currency pair but with any trade, it's important that the short term trend of the 30 minute time frame is in line with the trends shown below. Feel free to view a recording of my multiple time frame system to gain further understanding of this concept or join Monday's webinar.


    GBPCHF
    The trend on daily time frame was bearish before priced closed under the Bollinger band last week. A correction to the 1.46 level should not surprise us but as long as we trade under 1.47 which are the highs from last week we should be able to reach 1.44, which is this week's S1 level of the Pivot point indicator.
    Name:  GBPCHF.png
Views: 7249
Size:  45.0 KB


    GBPJPY
    Price took out 157 which was horizontal support as seen on the daily time frame below and is now riding the bollinger band. A correction to 157 would most likely be used by traders to go short. I am bearish as long as we trade under 158.85 and expect us to reach 155.
    Name:  GBPJPY.png
Views: 7249
Size:  38.1 KB


    USDCHF
    The trend is not as strong as it was last week but the trend remains bearish as long as we trade under 91.35. After 1-2 days of correction we should assume a test of last week's low and 89.40 which is this week's S2 level of the Pivot point indicator.

    Name:  USDCHF.png
Views: 7239
Size:  38.1 KB


    USDCZK
    As long as we trade under 19.08 we should expect a test of 18.55
    Name:  USDCZK.png
Views: 7244
Size:  46.2 KB


    EURUSD
    As long as we trade above 1.3460 we should assume a test of last week's high and the R1 level. They way the market looks right now we would need to test the 1.35 level before assuming a bounce.
    Name:  EURUSD.png
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    We host a weekly webinar based on this research every Monday at 17:30 BST - register now to join the next session https://www2.gotomeeting.com/register/632924170

    Bullish/Bearish signal


    • Average signal will last for 18 trading days but we have extreme signals that extend over 45 trading days.
    • 92% of the time the signals will last for at least 5 days.
    • On average gains will start to accumulate from day 6 to 12.
    • On average after the signal, price will be flat or drop with about 1% but not more that 1.5% in most cases
    • After 10 trading days we will have return of about 1.1% and 2% after 18 days.
    Last edited by Daniel at DailyFX; 12-10-2013 at 12:58 PM.
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  11. #11
    Alejandro Zambrano's Avatar
    Alejandro Zambrano is offline DailyFX Analyst and Forum Moderator
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    Trending
    October 15 - 2013


    This week I am focusing on the following pairs: AUDCAD, AUDJPY, AUDUSD, EURAUD and GBPAUD

    The lack of strong trends in the markets is evident this week, as only AUD pairs meet our criteria for strong trends. As we are only focusing on AUD pairs this week, we should be careful and treat it with diligence. There may even be a possibility that an update may be done later in the week if the AUD pairs rollover.

    The reason for picking these currencies is because they exhibit strong trends. We can see this as they are riding/pushing against their outer ©Bollinger Band on the Daily Time. See below for characteristics of currency pairs were price is pushing against the Bollinger Band.

    We host a weekly webinar based on this research every Monday at 17:30 BST - register now to join the next session https://www2.gotomeeting.com/register/632924170

    The setups below show a rough idea of the expected path of the respective currency pair but with any trade, it's important that the short term trend of the 30 minute time frame is in line with the trends shown below. Feel free to view a recording of my multiple time frame system to gain further understanding of this concept or join today's webinar.

    AUDUSD

    We have been bullish with AUDUSD since the reversal in the beginning of the month. The trend following system is now picking this up as price is pushing against the outer Bollinger band. This suggests that we will trade even stronger going forward. As long as we trade above 93.85 we should expect that price will reach 96.60 which are the highs from June 14, 2013.
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    AUDCAD

    Price is clearly trading higher and given the weekly pivot point indicator, we should be able to reach 99.50. I think parity will be an irresistible target for the markets. My goal for this uptrend will be valid as long as we trade above the low of 96.90. Actual resistance is 1.0050 which is the June 3 high.
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    EURAUD

    Price is not only pushing against its lower Bollinger band, but also under 1.4190 which will mark a bearish breakout in the daily time frame. The next support level is 1.3870 as marked below. Weekly Pivot Points are telling us that this move is already over as we are already at this week's S2 level, but given that the Pivot Point levels are based at last week's narrow range, there may be a possibility that this weeks range may be underestimated. As long as we trade under 1.4415 we should be able to reach 1.40.
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    GBPAUD

    As with EURAUD, price is trading lower and we can see that the next support level is 1.65 and the weekly S2 is at 1.6625. The level invalidating this down trend is 1.70 which is a level just above the last few days’ highs and close to this week's R1 level.
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    AUDJPY

    This could be a bit tricky to trade but as long as we trade above 97.70 the trend should remain intact and we should be able to reach 95 and 95.50. We are close to prior highs and this week's R1 level so a correction to 92.50 should not surprise us.
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    We host a weekly webinar based on this research every Monday at 17:30 BST - register now to join the next session https://www2.gotomeeting.com/register/632924170

    Bullish/Bearish signals

    • Average signal will last for 18 trading days but we have extreme signals that extend over 45 trading days.
    • 92% of the time the signals will last for at least 5 days.
    • On average gains will start to accumulate from day 6 to 12.
    • On average after the signal, price will be flat or drop with about 1% but not more that 1.5% in most cases
    • After 10 trading days we will have return of about 1.1% and 2% after 18 days.
    Last edited by Daniel at DailyFX; 12-10-2013 at 12:56 PM.
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  12. #12
    Alejandro Zambrano's Avatar
    Alejandro Zambrano is offline DailyFX Analyst and Forum Moderator
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    Trending
    October 22 - 2013


    This week I am focusing on the following pairs: AUDJPY, EURUSD, EURCAD and USDPLN.

    These currencies offer us healthy trends, as well as an advantage because they are fairly uncorrelated to country risks. Thus, we should be able to get a decent entry for a swing position in one of these markets.

    We hosted a webinar about these setups last night and we will send out an email today with the video and the short term setups for the pairs below. As all markets are behaving as expected I would get ready to reload on the dips.

    If you like this and would like to receive last night’s recording and in the same time get access to next week's session, than please register here https://www2.gotomeeting.com/register/632924170.

    The reason for picking these currencies is because they exhibit strong trends. We can see this as they are riding/pushing against their outer Bollinger Band on the Daily Time. See below for characteristics of currency pairs where price is pushing against the Bollinger Band.
    The setups below show a rough idea of the expected path of the respective currency pair. However, with any trade, it's important that the short term trend of the 30 minute time frame is in line with the trends shown below. Feel free to view a recording of my multiple time frame system to gain further understanding of this concept or join today's webinar.

    EURUSD
    The trend is indisputably bullish and we should be able to reach 1.38 and 1.3850 as long as we trade above 1.3470. Swing traders will look to buy from the 1.3600 level, which constitutes a 50% correction of last week's rally.

    A break out above 1.3710 could also work as entry for short term traders. 1.3850 is this week R2 level of the weekly Pivot Point indicator.

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    USDPLN
    Price is clearly trading lower and is now threatening lows not seen since February 2012. As long as we trade under 3.10 we should be able to breach the lows and reach 3.0060 which are lows not seen since 2011. Interesting level too short for swing traders will be 3.0750 and all the way up to 3.10, alternately a breakout below the current lows.

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    EURCAD
    The trend is bullish and very close to breakout above major highs, as long as we trade above 1.3940. We should assume that a breakout will occur and that we will reach 1.4170. A breakout above 1.4170 should take price to 1.4300

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    AUDJPY
    We have been bullish on AUDJPY for some time and are still bullish and see more upside to this currency pair. As long as we trade above 93 we should be able to reach 96.50. Swing traders will most likely wait for a dip to the 93/94 zone before considering going long.

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    We host a weekly webinar based on this research every Monday at 17:30 BST - register now to join the next session https://www2.gotomeeting.com/register/632924170

    Bullish/Bearish signals


    • Average signal will last for 18 trading days but we have extreme signals that extend over 45 trading days.
    • 92% of the time the signals will last for at least 5 days.
    • On average gains will start to accumulate from day 6 to 12.
    • On average after the signal, price will be flat or drop with about 1% but not more that 1.5% in most cases
    • After 10 trading days we will have return of about 1.1% and 2% after 18 days.
    Last edited by Daniel at DailyFX; 12-10-2013 at 12:54 PM.
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  13. #13
    Alejandro Zambrano's Avatar
    Alejandro Zambrano is offline DailyFX Analyst and Forum Moderator
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    Update: Trending! October 24

    See video below for an update on the setups in this week's article.

    We host a weekly webinar based on this research every Monday at 17:30 BST - register now to join the next session https://www2.gotomeeting.com/register/632924170




    Last edited by Alejandro Zambrano; 10-24-2013 at 12:58 PM.
    -->Jazzy<-- likes this.

  14. #14
    Alejandro Zambrano's Avatar
    Alejandro Zambrano is offline DailyFX Analyst and Forum Moderator
    Join Date
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    Trending
    October 28 - 2013


    This week I am focusing on the following pairs: AUDJPY, AUDNZD, USDCAD, GBPCAD, EURUSD

    The reason for choosing these currencies is because they exhibit strong trends. We can see this as they are riding/pushing against their outer Bollinger Band on the Daily Time. See below for characteristics of currency pairs where the price is pushing against the Bollinger Band.

    The setups below show a rough idea of the expected path of the respective currency pair. However, with any trade, it's important that the short term trend of the 30 minute time frame is in line with the trends shown below. Feel free to view a recording of my multiple time frame system to gain further understanding of this concept or join today's webinar.

    Join today's webinar starting 17:30 GMT - https://www2.gotomeeting.com/register/632924170

    EURUSD
    Last week we expected price to reach 1.3850 on a break of 1.3710. A target that we pretty much reached. This week I am expecting price to reach 1.3900/50 as long as we trade above 1.3580, yet in the short term price is overbought and I would like too see a dip to 1.3700 before expecting a bounce. Traders are expected to buy a bounce between 1.3880 and 1.3700. With a stop loss at 1.3580.

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    AUDNZD
    Price is clearly bullish as its rides the Bollinger band. Correction to 1.1500 is expected but as long as we trade above 1.1390 which is a level under this week's S1 level of the Pivot Point indicator we should assume a bounce. Traders are expected to buy a bounce somewhere between 1.1390 and 1.15.

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    AUDJPY
    Price is clearly bullish as seen by the 20 period moving average pointing higher. Price has stabilized close to the 93 level and should not really trade much lower than 92.30 which this week's S1 level of the Pivot Point indicator. Traders are expecting to buy a bounce in the interval of 92.30/93.56 with a stop under 92.30. Price target will be 96.
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    USDCAD


    GBPCAD


    We host a weekly webinar based on this research every Monday at 17:30 BST - register now to join the next session https://www2.gotomeeting.com/register/632924170

    Bullish/Bearish signals



    • Average signal will last for 18 trading days but we have extreme signals that extend over 45 trading days.
    • 92% of the time the signals will last for at least 5 days.
    • On average gains will start to accumulate from day 6 to 12.
    • On average after the signal, price will be flat or drop with about 1% but not more that 1.5% in most cases
    • After 10 trading days we will have return of about 1.1% and 2% after 18 days.
    Last edited by Daniel at DailyFX; 12-10-2013 at 12:52 PM.
    JerryPan likes this.
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  15. #15
    Alejandro Zambrano's Avatar
    Alejandro Zambrano is offline DailyFX Analyst and Forum Moderator
    Join Date
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    Trending
    November 4 - 2013


    This week I am focusing on the following pairs: AUDJPY, AUDNZD, EURNOK, EURSEK, USDTRY

    The reason for choosing these currencies is because they exhibit strong trends. We can see this as they are riding/pushing against their outer Bollinger Band on the Daily Time Frame. See below for characteristics of currency pairs where the price is pushing against the Bollinger Band.

    Theses setups are based on a webinar that we host every Monday 17:30 GMT - Click here to sign up to the next session https://www2.gotomeeting.com/register/632924170


    AUDJPY
    AUDJPY is a currency pair that we were already looking at last week. The idea was to buy on a dip, something that has now developed. The reason for wanting to buy is because the trend is clearly bullish as seen by the 20 period moving average pointing higher.

    Today, as we can see in the chart below we are trading above the weekly S1 level and should not trade much lower than this. We are also expecting price to reach 95.40 which is the October high. Looking at risk reward ratios we should therefore buy somewhere below 93.54 with a stop under 92.50. Profit target is the October high.

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    AUDNZD
    The overall trend is clearly bullish and we should bounce as long as we trade above 1.1390. We can see that as Monday's session ended bullish, marking a shift in the sentiment. With a target at the weekly R2 level and a stop under 1.1390, the risk reward ratio allows us to buy somewhere between 1.1390 and 1.1475.
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    EURNOK
    Price is clearly trading lower and pushing against the lower Bollinger band. I am assuming a test of 7.91 which is horizontal support as long as we trade under 8.17 which is horizontal resistance from August and October. From a risk reward scenario traders are expected to look for weakness and short somewhere between 8.08 and 8.17.

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    EURSEK
    Price is clearly trading higher and is pushing against the upper Bollinger band. We should not trade much lower than 8.70. This weeks S1 level of the Pivot Point indicator should act as first line of support. The June high should be tested as long as we trade above 8.70 and given the weekly R2 level this is within reach. From a Risk reward scenario we traders are expected to buy below 8.76 with a stop under 8.70 and a profit target at 8.90

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    USDTRY
    Price is clearly bullish and we should expect a test of 2.03 as long as we trade above 1.9750. A break of 2.03 should take 2.05. A dip under 1.9938 will most likely be bought as long as we do not slip under 1.9750.

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    We host a weekly webinar based on this research every Monday at 17:30 BST - register now to join the next session https://www2.gotomeeting.com/register/632924170

    Bullish/Bearish signals



    • Average signal will last for 18 trading days but we have extreme signals that extend over 45 trading days.
    • 92% of the time the signals will last for at least 5 days.
    • On average gains will start to accumulate from day 6 to 12.
    • On average after the signal, price will be flat or drop with about 1% but not more that 1.5% in most cases
    • After 10 trading days we will have return of about 1.1% and 2% after 18 days.
    Last edited by Daniel at DailyFX; 12-10-2013 at 12:51 PM.

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