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09-20-2013, 11:37 AM #37936
two decent articles to begin to get you thoughts together on the German elections. Unfortunately, not as clear as we would like. Merkel is certianly the stable choice but also she backed off a tough stance as she moved into election season. Some see her moving into a tougher stance on ailing nations after the election and that would be Euro negative. Her stability is Euro positive. The AfD party has cleared 5% so coalition government may not be possible, that would be Euro negative.
Not very clear in my opinion but I am far from up to speed on German politics.
09-20-2013, 12:29 PM #37937
This is what I like to see.... for pre-market range....
Break of the range early after 9:30 New York and enough room the the nearest pivot with the nice r/R
eur usd 5 min chart
Last edited by JerryPan; 09-20-2013 at 12:32 PM.
09-20-2013, 01:19 PM #37938
London session review and outlook September 20- 2013
Review of markets covered in today's edition of Bulls vs. Bears: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, FTSE100, S&P500, Gold, Brent Crude and WTI.
Charts created using the FXCM Trading Station
Additional educational presentations to the Analysis presentation above
Using Time to predict reversals http://www.brainshark.com/fxcm/vu?pi=zHSz5RJoMz6tVxz0
My take on Money management and Stop loss levels: http://t.co/ZMulJx0ayN
How I use the Pivot point indicator: http://www.brainshark.com/fxcm/vu?pi=zJ2zaMqYuz6tVxz0
Market Analyst | DailyFX Forum (London)
09-20-2013, 02:02 PM #37939
Yap, I think sideways from now
and the EW range for that move is:
But before we break one of this, I will try to long next week.
Last edited by nefre; 09-20-2013 at 02:05 PM.
09-20-2013, 02:05 PM #37940
Hello. Been a while I since I looked at the Eur/Usd daily chart. Decent price action recently so I'm looking to get in long after a retrace if the support level at 1.34170 holds. My trading is based is off of simple price action at support and resistance levels. I look forward to reading how others are planning to trade the Eur/Usd pair.
09-20-2013, 02:24 PM #37941
Pretty awesome last two weeks and I'm expecting Bulls to advance further as long as 1.3500 is not broken and closed. I'm still holding on to long positions for continued target of 1.3800+ but may add more, depending on what resistance levels we break. Based on the Fib outcome below, After bouncing nicely off of the 50% retrace, its looking good so far and expecting a run up to the upper TL and fib expansion target levels. More detailed charts in my previous posts about why i am very bearish come 1.3800 - 1.4000 range levels. We may track sideways come next week but again, 1.3500 is supported well.
Last edited by FXTA; 09-20-2013 at 02:26 PM.
“There are no limitations to the mind except those we acknowledge.”
09-21-2013, 03:37 AM #37942
This is not a big black bull. Just a little white bull, or perhaps a tired old bull. But a bull just the same. He may be tired & weary but the pursuing Bear has even less strength. So it will be a winding tortuous road to the top with many margin calls on the way. That's why I don't trade this pair on a daily basis. A very long term pair for me.
Originally Posted by nefre
I pip a lot. !!!!!!
09-21-2013, 01:32 PM #37943
did you see these moves on thursday after the fed announcement...
09-21-2013, 02:05 PM #37944
new strategy, aud/usd 73 pips...9/13/2013
Last edited by british4x; 09-21-2013 at 02:33 PM.
09-21-2013, 03:11 PM #37945
Did you use OCO (one cancel other) or you were expecting FED not to tapper QE?
Originally Posted by british4x
09-21-2013, 05:03 PM #37946
no i don't use oco, ..the aussie video you reference blew the window on sun the 15th of sep .. but here you see a 15 min chart of the gbp, its from the announcement and is part of the 97 pip gbp/usd move from the 18th..but the gbp made a move if you look at the previous video at 9am british time that same morning, then it hooked into consolidation which is this 15 min chart (video), and then the announement at (1900 hours..7pm) british time and it took off again for the 97 pip. move
Originally Posted by JerryPan
Last edited by british4x; 09-21-2013 at 05:27 PM.
09-22-2013, 05:23 AM #37947
TrendLine Analysis and more....
Trend-line analysis is all about getting to know your channels and getting to spot patterns for positioning.
Using a GU weekly to state my mind frame..
I can only write to an extend within the charts..
Below is continuation of the contend that was suppose to go on the chart..
The chart has 3 colors... Black / Blue and the RED..
Black is the main channel which roughly is 4500-1.6900 or roughly 2400 pips. This channel has been
in play for roughly 4 yrs..
Next up is the RED declining channel in play or became known since 2011. Fair to assume this got in play since the Jan 2011 and only the week ended it ended up touching the resis mark of it.
USing the Black and the RED for now RED has been a smaller and a declining channel.For the tgt of the black to become reality the pair needs to be out of the RED and as such a break and a close required higher.
There has been the rf intersection of the play that has come into play and is only recently like last week.
The Blue channel is in as well. This Blue TL which has been acting as resis has been broken and got a close higher... For this Blue to come into play (and it's tgt goes way beyond the Black's tgt) it need the final break higher to the RED channel.
This is where it gets interested.... IF RED stays intact and the pair closes under the Blue, it will be counted as rejection and the fall on GU would be seen. A break higher and the surge to the black tgt would become a reality...
At the very present the price is within all the 3 channels.... IT will however leave one channel out.
that is either the blue or the RED.
Out of RED is bullish for GU.. Out of blue it is bearish.......
This offcourse doesn't reflect day to day trading but shows a bigger pix............ To achieve the tgts even nominal ones can takes months to yrs...
Patience is virtue. The sooner we learn this all, sooner we can start walking to the bank. Good Luck to all of us
The trick is to wait the price meet ur limits, instead of one jumping in.. however scalps is a totally different scenario and is not everyone's cup of tea
Disclaimer: I'm not at all suggesting trades when by either posting the graphs, or my entries. You can view it, but in the end you have to use your own logic and approach, as there is no certainty about this uncertain market...
09-22-2013, 01:25 PM #37948
German Federal Elections
German Federal Elections: Sunday, results expected before markets open. A German federal election will determine the 598 members of the 18th Bundestag, the main federal legislative house of Germany. Germans pick a constituency candidate with their first vote, and the second vote determines the relative strength of the parties in the Bundestag. Angela Merkel, whose conservative bloc constitutes around 40% seats, needs the FDP to do well in the federal vote to avoid having to turn to the opposition Social Democrats (SPD). A grand left-right coalition is desired by many voters, but such a government could prove unstable.
FDP 4,9 %
SPD 25,7 %
CDU 42 %
Looks like Angela Merkel is gonna win
EDit: This looks like bearish ?????
Too Much Is Never Enough
09-22-2013, 02:21 PM #37949
Since we have had a topside breakout, it looks to me like its just consolidating in a bull flag before another move up. Im gonna look for 1.37 as my target although I think we will go into 1.38-1.40 area eventually.
09-22-2013, 02:47 PM #37950
I've read competing views on this:
Originally Posted by Mozart
1. Euro positive: The outcome is the expected (Merkel win and same or better coalition) and removes an unknown. Everyone knows Merkel and her thoughts. Can look at reactions in the past to determine what may happen so it lifts the Euro
2. Euro negative: Merkel has been unyielding on some major issues facing the EZ and has toned it down a bit over the last 6-8 months prepping for re-election. Now that the election is over she will hit hard and fast. More austerity, less compromise with ailing ecos.
personally, not sure. Ultimately, I think all effects will have limited impact over the short and long run. Maybe today and even this week, at best, but not much more or longer. Ultimately, this changes nothing. Much like the Fed, no change.