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Thread: EURUSD H1 2013

  1. #27631
    fxfans is offline Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by monkeyp View Post
    There are 5 factors, that are for the second big DROP:
    1) Initial LEVY was supposed to be 6,5 <100'000 Eur and 10% on > 100'000. Now (11 p.m. GMT) we hear that there will be "20% tax on deposits over EUR 100K at Bank of Cyprus and 4% in other banks". Not to mention, that rise in EUR (since the drop) was because of the fact, that Parliment rejected ANY levy...
    No now we have instead of:
    NON LEVY
    6,5, 10 %
    .... 20% on the biggest bank in Cyprus :|

    2) On Ichimoku, on 4H chart we have touched the cloud, what means good opportunity to revese.

    3) People are afraid in Spain and Italy that this might also there happen.

    4) In Spain and Italy there is SUCH A BIG unemployment, that more that 50% of 18-30 y.o. live with their parents, no kids, salary max 1000 Euro with no future for higher incomes. This means, dropping in retail sales...

    5) Stock exhanges are overheated in Europe (DAX/FTSE).

    Thus I'm short since friday, and expect 1,2850 open 10.00 p.m. GMT sunday (Tokyo open).
    -----------------
    Ok, lets, list some factors for going up in EURUSD....:
    1) UDS_I is at channel line - might drop, so EUR wil rise

    2) Sone blind people, that do not know anything about what's going on in Europe (Spain, Italy, UK) will expect 5% GDP in 2013

    3) positive divergence in MCAD

    ----------------
    Neutral OPEN - yes, possible.... will make next 24h move much stronger... I would like to mention, that in Cyprus most of grocery stories are running out of goods and have no possibility to pay for new orders...

    I think, we face now end of financial world we have lived in. Now we see, that EU and Banksers can shut down Banks, steal in bright day, and pay bonuses for their self...

    Ps. What would You do, if You were Rybolovlev (app. 9'000'000'000 USD) with .... lagre part in frozen now Cyprus Bank... ???
    One could make money but it doesn't mean his fundamental thesis is right.
    One could lose money but it doesn't mean his fundamental thesis is wrong.

    Fundamentals are usually good for long term trading, but not short term like where's the next 200 pips move will be.

  2. #27632
    Andie is offline Member
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    All is well I work full time so Im not able to respond timely. Any how I'm not getting attached to any trade. I will use support and resistance to guide me.


    Quote Originally Posted by biggari View Post
    yeah, makes sense, i agree with you, all tech analysis is less reliable with the current particuar/additionally uncertainties

    (important: please take this as an agreement/compliment to your view point - for the record it is in no way, and should not be interpritted as, an attempt to ''shoot you'')

    ps. i thought it was established that no one ''shot'' you (in which case there would have been no thought of a likelyhood of anyone starting shooting now). i see that i am wrong and that you feel you were 'right' all along - very unfortunate imo
    biggari likes this.

  3. #27633
    Gregory McLeod's Avatar
    Gregory McLeod is offline DailyFX Moderator/Trader
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    Quote Originally Posted by biggari View Post
    good luck with your trade Greg

    shame you didnt also take the opertunity to explain to any new traders that if the market were to gap up 100 points (certainly not saying it will but anything is possible) your fifty point stop does not protect you

    your trade will be closed at the opening price -100, or -200 or what ever - nothing wrong with trading over the weekend when you know thw risks - imho your assumed RR of 1:2 is not realistic on a weekend when there is such a high probability of a gap. it would be interesting to see if your limit works at +100 if it were to gap down 150 pips - you should ofcourse be closed 150 pips up

    most brokers are on the other end of their clients trades (sometimes indirectly through their partner bank) and profit when their clients lose. so good idea not to score any own goals - even if te intention wasnt there

    side note: saw a film again the other day, used to scare the crap out of me when i was a kid - about a time traveler who lands at a place in time where it appears humanity has evolved into a peaceful comune style society - he later discovers it is infact a farm of obediant humans that the Morlocks feed off - anyway probably a rubish film compared to nowadys standards but i like it
    Those are the risks that we face as traders every day. We could, if we had time write a multi-paragraph disclaimer for every trade we take because those risks are present at every moment we are in the market. Remember March 11 2011 and the 2008 financial meltdown, and 1997 Asia meltdown. No announcement, just gaps of several hundred pips. But you so eloquently explained the risks involved with this trade and any over-the-weekend trade. In fact, a normal trade with a stop during the week has the same risks as well as stop orders become market orders when touched and are filled at the next available price. This fill price can be hundreds of pips away from the intended price as stops aren't guaranteed. So even when one trails a stop to "lock in gains", that stop could be jumped and filled at a far worse price. This is slippage in the worse sense and is part and parcel of all trading markets from lumber to IBM to Euro and e-mini contracts.
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  4. #27634
    biggari's Avatar
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    DO NOT READ THIS IF YOU ARE EASILY BORED OR OFFENDED

    .
    .


    Ah, some interesting responses, good meaningful conversation we are having this weekend, if maybe a little defensive.

    I would have thought a market maker could hedge its long clients against its short clients, for any individual instrument. This would possibly mean they would only have to hedge and finance the difference on the underlying market. Any savings could then be passed on to clients in the form of lower spreads. Great idea providing there is no cheating involved. IG is a market maker, I use their charts and I use charts found on dailyfx and cannot see any significant differences where an accusation of ''cheating'' could be made. Doesnt mean it doesn go on in another way ofcourse.

    A non dealing desk broker could, through the use of a partner bank, trade against their clients. And ofcourse there is nothing wrong with this provided there is no cheating involved. I cant see how such an activity by such a broker could be beneficial to their customers.

    Imo a broker being on the other end of a clients trade is quite acceptable as they will have to pay out if the trade goes in favour of the client. It is only unacceptable when there is any cheating involved.

    One of the most recent scandals in the banking industry is the manipulation of libor rates, deemed acceptable by the sort of people the business attracts, to achieve short term gains. Of course like all short term profits from scams the long term pain is worse (or certainly should be).

    I am completely sold on the Forex business and the freedom it can provide to those that achieve profits, through trading, from it. But I will always ask questions and look for dishonesty because there is money involved. The industry does after all have form.

    Greg, iv got a lot of respect for you and a learnt a huge amount from both you and AZ.

    I am not sure how you relate a market gap during a brokers open hours from unexpected news to a market gap during a brokers closed hours from highly anticipated news

    I hear much repeated basic trading information in webinars that people in the know could argue are already common knowledge. I have never heard anybodys webinars explain weekend gaps and their effect on stops.

    Anyone not believing this is an issue should maybe look back at some of the posts after weekend gaps due to the Greek situation. There you will find traders who have learnt the hard and expensive way that their stop cant be effective when their broker is closed over the weekend.

    Anyway, my point is, opening a trade on a Friday afternoon, before a weekend full of anticipated but unknown news, is very risky and should only be taken with full knowledge of the possible consiquenses.

    Right, if youv got this far, thanks for bearing with me and sorry if I bored you, I'm off to do interesting and enjoyable things for the rest of the day.

    Oh and a note for JumboFX: might be an idea to read a post before commenting on it.
    Remember: your stop is also your brokers take profit

  5. #27635
    SkiBunny's Avatar
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    ^
    Not to diminish the risk from a gap opening, but of course the Stop Limit protects your position from being sold-on-Stop for a price worse than you wish – and crystallizing the loss.
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  6. #27636
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mary R View Post
    Cypress is basically a haven for tax evaders from the EU. Its a totally different situation from Spain and Italy. There is no levy on deposits anywhere else in the EU and none on small depositors in Cypress. The Germans figure they shouldn't have to bail out crooks and thieves which is understandable.
    If the supermarkets have run out of goods in Cypress people will go the Greece or somewhere else nearby to buy stuff. You'd be surprised the extent to which people in these smaller Mediterranean islands make due in these situations...A lot of them just live off the land in agrarian communities.
    Hi Mary,
    I agree with some of your view as in the tax evasion bit. most of the big money in Cyprus is Russian other countries considered tax havens are Luxembourg, Switzerland and isle of man( part of the uk). there is farming on cypress but not to the extent that you seem to think as most property owned is by foreigners, a lot of agricultural land was bought by developers and promoted by the government. Traveling to Greece to get products? your having a laugh Syria is closer or maybe just take the ferry to turkey (lol). The government are the real criminals in cypress they were even selling eu citizenship to anyone outside of Europe who could afford to buy property over a certain amount.

  7. #27637
    SkiBunny's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mary R View Post
    Cypress is basically a haven for tax evaders from the EU. Its a totally different situation from Spain and Italy. There is no levy on deposits anywhere else in the EU and none on small depositors in Cypress. The Germans figure they shouldn't have to bail out crooks and thieves which is understandable.
    Are the Brits or American companies "crooks and thieves"? No matter what propaganda the Troika liars spew, many deposits in Cyprus are not from dirty Russian money. Regardless, government theft of bank accounts is not the proper process to pursue anti-money-laundering. That is like indiscriminately firing all civil servants just because many civil servants are counterproductive parasites.

    Even in the case of a bank bankruptcy there should be "due process of law" where decisions are made by the Judiciary and not mandated by Parliament. Further, not all of the deposits in Cyprus are in troubled banks. There are many French banks, Emirates banks, Swiss banks, several Israeli banks, some Asian and UK banks and even one Canadian bank etc, that are not troubled nor launderers for "tax evaders" and dirty Russian money, yet the EU demands that the bank accounts in these healthy banks have depositors’ money stolen too.

    Also, what happened to “rule of law” and subordinating BOND HOLDERS to depositors?? Apparently, the bondholders of the insolvent Cyprus banks are not being hit because Cyprus bank bonds are pledged as collateral at the ECB. Thus, if the Cyprus banks default on their bonds, then Cyprus (which has guaranteed the debt) must also default, which has guaranteed $11.6 billion of collateral at the ECB, which exceeds the equity capital of the ECB – thus wiping out the ECB too.

    At the end of the day, excessive leverage at the ECB and Fed, combined with the dubious assets on their balance sheets, will force them to either “print” recklessly and/or steal from depositors. The Troika’s shenanigans with Cyprus serves as a warning bell to all:.. Take your money and run! (into other real assets)
    Last edited by SkiBunny; 03-24-2013 at 07:55 AM.
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  8. #27638
    Mary R's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SkiBunny View Post
    Are the Brits or American companies "crooks and thieves"? No matter what propaganda the Troika liars spew, many deposits in Cyprus are not from dirty Russian money. Regardless, government theft of bank accounts is not the proper process to pursue anti-money-laundering. That is like indiscriminately firing all civil servants just because many civil servants are counterproductive parasites.

    Even in the case of a bank bankruptcy there should be "due process of law" where decisions are made by the Judiciary and not mandated by Parliament. Further, not all of the deposits in Cyprus are in troubled banks. There are many French banks, Emirates banks, Swiss banks, several Israeli banks, some Asian and UK banks and even one Canadian bank etc, that are not troubled nor launderers for "tax evaders" and dirty Russian money, yet the EU demands that the bank accounts in these healthy banks have depositors’ money stolen too.

    Also, what happened to “rule of law” and subordinating BOND HOLDERS to depositors?? Apparently, the bondholders of the insolvent Cyprus banks are not being hit because Cyprus bank bonds are pledged as collateral at the ECB. Thus, if the Cyprus banks default on their bonds, then Cyprus (which has guaranteed the debt) must also default, which has guaranteed $11.6 billion of collateral at the ECB, which exceeds the equity capital of the ECB – thus wiping out the ECB too.

    At the end of the day, excessive leverage at the ECB and Fed, combined with the dubious assets on their balance sheets, will force them to either “print” recklessly and/or steal from depositors. The Troika’s shenanigans with Cyprus serves as a warning bell to all:.. Take your money and run! (into other real assets)
    Perhaps I am somewhat ignorant about what is really going on in Cyprus - I did not know there were so many other banks there that the troika was demanding liens on. However the amount of money Cyprus is asking from the EFSF is still relatively small and the amount of controversy it is causing may result in some type of compromise from the two parties.
    The ECB couldn't be wiped out from only $11.6 billion, they deal in much larger numbers than that.

    The US government is already making billions from the financial shenanigans of the last decade - look at the fines these big banks are paying - $600 million from Citigroup, $1 billion from Goldman Sachs, JP MOrgan and CSFB $417 million, another $600 million from SAC...if they keep fining all the wrongdoings in the financial sector they could probably keep the government solvent another 100 years

    As far as gaps are concerned, people have to manage their risk appropriately. Don't hold a big position over a weekend event risk there is always a chance it will gap in the opposite direction

  9. #27639
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    Mix Bag

    Sensing YEN a bit lower only to be higher later on.. Similar view on EJ.. however if we take the view that YEN on 8 hrs has put up a massive Bull Fag and so does the EJ.. In that case YEN retrace could extend well around to 92.XX (2 hrs yen chart) and for EJ upto 117.XX, which also means the symmetrical wedge both of them forming breaks to the lower side..
    GOLD looking a bit higher somewhere to 1635-42..
    AUD going bearish on it.

    GL..
    รูป รูป          
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    Patience is virtue. The sooner we learn this all, sooner we can start walking to the bank. Good Luck to all of us—
    The trick is to wait the price meet ur limits, instead of one jumping in.. however scalps is a totally different scenario and is not everyone's cup of tea
    Disclaimer: I'm not at all suggesting trades when by either posting the graphs, or my entries. You can view it, but in the end you have to use your own logic and approach, as there is no certainty about this uncertain market...

  10. #27640
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    Quote Originally Posted by biggari View Post
    Oh and a note for JumboFX: might be an idea to read a post before commenting on it.
    Apologies for inappropriate quoting you. However I did post on the subject right after that...

    Now I'd like to take that "gap" discussion a bit further. Those gaps you see are really rare like the one happened last Sunday when market opened. You have to understand that there are brokers that open earlier than 9pm GMT (5pm EST) and most of the time their opening price is the same as Friday's closing.

    Sure that wasn't the case on the 17th but as you can see the opening price at 6pm GMT was 1.2952 and by the time the other brokers opened the price was already down to 1.2905.

    So if someone wants to keep a trades during the weekend especially when there's big events coming up I strongly suggest you find a broker that let's you trade few hours earlier then the others. That way at least you'll have more control over your position.

    P.S. I'm attaching a screen short at the prices at 2.25pm EST for anyone to compare with their opening price later.
    รูป รูป    
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  11. #27641
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mary R View Post
    Perhaps I am somewhat ignorant about what is really going on in Cyprus - I did not know there were so many other banks there that the troika was demanding liens on. However the amount of money Cyprus is asking from the EFSF is still relatively small and the amount of controversy it is causing may result in some type of compromise from the two parties.
    The ECB couldn't be wiped out from only $11.6 billion, they deal in much larger numbers than that.
    Well according to the ECB website (last updated December 2012):

    “The capital of the ECB comes from the national central banks (NCBs) of all EU Member States. It amounts to €10,760,652,402.58 (as of 29 December 2010). From 29 December 2010, the ECB increased its capital from €5.76 billion to €10.76 billion. The capital paid to the ECB by the euro area NCBs amounts to €7,529,282,289.35"

    http://www.ecb.europa.eu/ecb/orga/ca.../index.en.html

    Thus while the total subscribed ECB capital is €10.76 billion, the ECB's paid-in capital is only €7.5B or about US$10-billion (the difference is owed by individual EU NCBs).

    In addition there are collateral guarantees by the NCBs to the ECB. Cyprus’ guarantee to ECB is $11.6B, which as you see exceeds the ECB’s paid-in capital base, so Cyprus matters.

    Yes, the ECB deals in large amounts, which shows how over-leveraged it is to capital base. Because of that, even Cyprus matters.

    Why else are the Troika dictating that bank bondholders lose zero, while depositors lose savings? Rule of law requires that bondholders take losses before depositors. What a mess!
    Last edited by SkiBunny; 03-24-2013 at 03:11 PM.

  12. #27642
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    I had not been to this thread for a while, and wow, there are now so many happy doom-sayers.

    Relax, people, there have been plenty of people calling for the end of the financial world for as long as there has been mass media. And the world is still here. Don't be part of the contrarian indicator.

    And what's all the self-righteous angst about bank deposits. Many people tend to think that money deposited in bank accounts as still just their own money logged in a different electronic space. Technically speaking, money deposited in a bank is a loan to the bank (otherwise why you think banks would pay interest to hold your stuff for you while in reality you would have to pay for a safety box). There is always risk on a loan. If anyone doesn't like this form of making a loan to others, they should have evaluated properly beforehand and acted accordingly. No financial instrument is risk free, including stuffing notes under your mattress (you risk losing value upon inflation).
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  13. #27643
    Mary R's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SkiBunny View Post
    Well according to the ECB website (last updated December 2012):

    “The capital of the ECB comes from the national central banks (NCBs) of all EU Member States. It amounts to €10,760,652,402.58 (as of 29 December 2010). From 29 December 2010, the ECB increased its capital from €5.76 billion to €10.76 billion. The capital paid to the ECB by the euro area NCBs amounts to €7,529,282,289.35"

    http://www.ecb.europa.eu/ecb/orga/ca.../index.en.html

    Thus while the total subscribed ECB capital is €10.76 billion, the ECB's paid-in capital is only €7.5B or about US$10-billion (the difference is owed by individual EU NCBs).

    In addition there are collateral guarantees by the NCBs to the ECB. Cyprus’ guarantee to ECB is $11.6B, which as you see exceeds the ECB’s paid-in capital base, so Cyprus matters.

    Yes, the ECB deals in large amounts, which shows how over-leveraged it is to capital base. Because of that, even Cyprus matters.

    Why else are the Troika dictating that bank bondholders lose zero, while depositors lose savings? Rule of law requires that bondholders take losses before depositors. What a mess!
    The banking system in Cyprus is insolvent - they need to borrow money from the rest of the Eurozone or else the depositors will lose everything. Its a lose-lose situation if you have money in a bank in Cyprus. But why would anyone put that much money in a bank in Cyprus to begin with, particularly foreigners who don't live in Cyprus?

  14. #27644
    cashcattle is offline Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mary R View Post
    The banking system in Cyprus is insolvent - they need to borrow money from the rest of the Eurozone or else the depositors will lose everything. Its a lose-lose situation if you have money in a bank in Cyprus. But why would anyone put that much money in a bank in Cyprus to begin with, particularly foreigners who don't live in Cyprus?
    you do moneylaundry its very easy
    it works like this way for example you from russia and own oil
    then you have 3 companies
    one in russia A one in niederlands B or other staat
    and the last one in cyprus C just a mailadress not more

    now A sells to B for under the market price Its possible the same company name, owner and
    B sells for the real market price in the world and the bill goes to C

    so you pay no taxes on your profits or less in Cyprus
    and even get up your profit because b gets it 10 times cheaper from a if you do it the real way

    or to save to pay taxes
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  15. #27645
    Andie is offline Member
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    But over the years these depositors were earning very attractive rates on their money, Is it all that bad to repay some of the "kindness". Anyhow, my greatest concern however is that this is a big test. If successful, it can happen to any of us, and that would definitely be thief as I really have not been earning anything to talk about here in the states.

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