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Thread: EURUSD H1 2013

  1. #27616
    Gino's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod View Post
    I got short Euro just before the close at 1.2999 and 1.2982 with a 50 pip stop and 100 pip limit. US stock market has been bearish on Mondays pretty consistently and the Euro may be all bear Monday as well. I'm up 8 pips on one lot and down -9.5 on the other. I seldom hold over the weekend, but Cyprus meltdown seemed to be a good enough reason. I think good news will reverse it big time on Tuesday or Wednesday and we could see Euro back at 1.3150 +
    Did you see the news, what is your intake?

  2. #27617
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod View Post
    I got short Euro just before the close at 1.2999 and 1.2982 with a 50 pip stop and 100 pip limit. US stock market has been bearish on Mondays pretty consistently and the Euro may be all bear Monday as well. I'm up 8 pips on one lot and down -9.5 on the other. I seldom hold over the weekend, but Cyprus meltdown seemed to be a good enough reason. I think good news will reverse it big time on Tuesday or Wednesday and we could see Euro back at 1.3150 +
    good luck with your trade Greg

    shame you didnt also take the opertunity to explain to any new traders that if the market were to gap up 100 points (certainly not saying it will but anything is possible) your fifty point stop does not protect you

    your trade will be closed at the opening price -100, or -200 or what ever - nothing wrong with trading over the weekend when you know thw risks - imho your assumed RR of 1:2 is not realistic on a weekend when there is such a high probability of a gap. it would be interesting to see if your limit works at +100 if it were to gap down 150 pips - you should ofcourse be closed 150 pips up

    most brokers are on the other end of their clients trades (sometimes indirectly through their partner bank) and profit when their clients lose. so good idea not to score any own goals - even if te intention wasnt there

    side note: saw a film again the other day, used to scare the crap out of me when i was a kid - about a time traveler who lands at a place in time where it appears humanity has evolved into a peaceful comune style society - he later discovers it is infact a farm of obediant humans that the Morlocks feed off - anyway probably a rubish film compared to nowadys standards but i like it
    Last edited by biggari; 03-23-2013 at 05:10 AM.
    Remember: your stop is also your brokers take profit

  3. #27618
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    Quote Originally Posted by Andie View Post
    Slow stochastic on 4hr is only 55, plenty of room for a POSSIBLE Penetration and also very thin cloud. Daily stoch and cloud is what I'm watching. But with whats happening in Europe, techs take 2nd place.

    ps. Only MY views, and just sharing MY thoughts, hope no one shoots me for this.
    yeah, makes sense, i agree with you, all tech analysis is less reliable with the current particuar/additionally uncertainties

    (important: please take this as an agreement/compliment to your view point - for the record it is in no way, and should not be interpritted as, an attempt to ''shoot you'')

    ps. i thought it was established that no one ''shot'' you (in which case there would have been no thought of a likelyhood of anyone starting shooting now). i see that i am wrong and that you feel you were 'right' all along - very unfortunate imo
    Last edited by biggari; 03-23-2013 at 06:50 AM.
    Remember: your stop is also your brokers take profit

  4. #27619
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    Quote Originally Posted by credit index FT View Post
    anything worthwhile in life is done with passion - wars are won with passion, courage etc

    yet so called pro traders ask us, train us to be robot like, emotionless

    inverted truths puts you on the wrong side of market
    well i agree with ''taking emotion out of my trading'' side of the conversation

    my ''war'' is not with the markets - my passion and emotion or ''war'' is more directed to providing a good life for myself and my family

    trading is the weaponary i am using to achieve my goals and win my war

    i'm not saying i'm right i'm just saying that we are all motivated in different ways

    right, i think iv taken up enough forum space for one weekend - off to get some stuff for my 3rd ski trip to alps this season (dont go till week on tuesday so probably a bit organised/excited)
    Last edited by biggari; 03-23-2013 at 07:05 AM.
    Remember: your stop is also your brokers take profit

  5. #27620
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    Apologies i cant post charts...i have tried..but i just cant switch it over to my damn saved
    files yet..-

    This is what iam potentially seeing..

    I have to look very differntly on the euro/dollar now...it absolutely hit a brick wall @1.2841
    on wed..very well defended..Central banks/soveriegns/whoever ..and 1.2877 looks rock solid now...

    My daily stochs have miles to run upside before oversold and pointing directly up..
    and the weekly are starting turn bullish-


    I have gone over and over the charts on all time frames looking for a bull target.
    If you do draw a fib from the recent 1.2840 low to the 1.3711 high...50% retr is 1.3275..
    u may disagree price wont get there...but if you look on the weekly charts i think
    it does however point to a strong case for a valid poss head and shoulders formation forming pattern play @1.3275
    to resume the current downtrend -



    It was very hard being a bear on thur/fri...frequently stopped out..
    and i should of gone long the second test of 1.2940..IMO im not going to
    fight the tape..and just go with the line on least resistance.
    I will look for a long entry tue poss to hold into the next ecb meeting....


    Cyprus can change everything..however i just feel now the bulls maybe in charge..
    How many people are tryna short the eur/usd?..am looking for bulls to overshoot
    the obvious bear targets..

    As for now switching to Eur/jpy for intraday pips..as it does trend of decent support/res

    Have a great weekend !
    Last edited by tapereader; 03-23-2013 at 08:49 AM.
    "The market taught me the market....and it didn"t spare me the rod"

  6. #27621
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    Alejandro Zambrano is online now DailyFX Analyst and Forum Moderator
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    Hello,

    Yes you are right Gregory should have pointed out the higher risk with a weekend trade given last week's gap but I also understand if he forgot to mention that - it has happened to me too that I assume that other people will know about things that I take for common knowledge.

    I would also like to point out that the post was made after the market close so none could have acted on it and I also want to point out that FCXM is a non dealing desk broker - so any losses of clients are not to the benefit of FXCM - yet if you trade with a market maker - which most people do then your broker could make money on your losses.

    So if the trader goes short at 1.30 with a stop at 1.3050 and the markets opens at 1.3060 then the 60 pips loss could go straight to the broker - this is not so strange - because I don't understand how people can assume that a broker will make money if the spread is 0.7 or lower - trading against the client is the only option?

    I hope this makes sense and have a good weekend

    Thanks
    Alejandro

    Quote Originally Posted by biggari View Post
    good luck with your trade Greg

    shame you didnt also take the opertunity to explain to any new traders that if the market were to gap up 100 points (certainly not saying it will but anything is possible) your fifty point stop does not protect you

    your trade will be closed at the opening price -100, or -200 or what ever - nothing wrong with trading over the weekend when you know thw risks - imho your assumed RR of 1:2 is not realistic on a weekend when there is such a high probability of a gap. it would be interesting to see if your limit works at +100 if it were to gap down 150 pips - you should ofcourse be closed 150 pips up

    most brokers are on the other end of their clients trades (sometimes indirectly through their partner bank) and profit when their clients lose. so good idea not to score any own goals - even if te intention wasnt there

    side note: saw a film again the other day, used to scare the crap out of me when i was a kid - about a time traveler who lands at a place in time where it appears humanity has evolved into a peaceful comune style society - he later discovers it is infact a farm of obediant humans that the Morlocks feed off - anyway probably a rubish film compared to nowadys standards but i like it
    biggari likes this.
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  7. #27622
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    I really didn't want to comment on Cyprus situation during the past week as I was more focused on my trading but there is something that got me thinking and worried for that matter. First of all I feel sorry for the people in Cyprus and woke up Monday morning with their money frozen. You'd think your money are safe in the bank until they are not. Some will say it's just a small country with not a whole lot of money on steak but what if this was done as a test to see if something like that can be done. And most importantly to see if they can get away with it. And that does raise the main question - what guaranties do we have that the same thing won't happen to bigger countries like Greece, Portugal, Spain and any other country in EU for that matter? Or United States or any other county? Think about it - ones the government gets a green light to legally confiscate people's money there's no stopping how far they can go.

    And it got me thinking - what's the best way to protect our money if something like that happens here? I'm sure there are few options but the first which comes to my mind is gold. And I mean physical gold not some options from your bank of broker. Then we can easily see the price rocket to $2000-3000 and maybe higher in no time....

    Again this is just my opinion and don't expect anyone to agree with me and more importantly to scare anyone but think about it.....
    Andie and Skypro like this.

  8. #27623
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    And there goes.....just saw that on the wires....


    Bank Of Cyprus Accounts May Be Taxed 25%, Deal Possible Saturday

  9. #27624
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    Quote Originally Posted by biggari View Post
    good luck with your trade Greg

    shame you didnt also take the opertunity to explain to any new traders that if the market were to gap up 100 points (certainly not saying it will but anything is possible) your fifty point stop does not protect you

    your trade will be closed at the opening price -100, or -200 or what ever - nothing wrong with trading over the weekend when you know thw risks - imho your assumed RR of 1:2 is not realistic on a weekend when there is such a high probability of a gap. it would be interesting to see if your limit works at +100 if it were to gap down 150 pips - you should ofcourse be closed 150 pips up

    most brokers are on the other end of their clients trades (sometimes indirectly through their partner bank) and profit when their clients lose. so good idea not to score any own goals - even if te intention wasnt there

    side note: saw a film again the other day, used to scare the crap out of me when i was a kid - about a time traveler who lands at a place in time where it appears humanity has evolved into a peaceful comune style society - he later discovers it is infact a farm of obediant humans that the Morlocks feed off - anyway probably a rubish film compared to nowadys standards but i like it

    Actually reaching a deal in Cyprus is a positive news as the uncertainty is no longer in the market. But you are right - that trade can go either way and one should know the risks of holding a trade over the weekend especially when gaps are likely and stops are not guaranteed.

    No matter what the outcome is I'm sure Grag will be fine.....

  10. #27625
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    Perhaps pole about monday Tokyo open?

    There are 5 factors, that are for the second big DROP:
    1) Initial LEVY was supposed to be 6,5 <100'000 Eur and 10% on > 100'000. Now (11 p.m. GMT) we hear that there will be "20% tax on deposits over EUR 100K at Bank of Cyprus and 4% in other banks". Not to mention, that rise in EUR (since the drop) was because of the fact, that Parliment rejected ANY levy...
    No now we have instead of:
    NON LEVY
    6,5, 10 %
    .... 20% on the biggest bank in Cyprus :|

    2) On Ichimoku, on 4H chart we have touched the cloud, what means good opportunity to revese.

    3) People are afraid in Spain and Italy that this might also there happen.

    4) In Spain and Italy there is SUCH A BIG unemployment, that more that 50% of 18-30 y.o. live with their parents, no kids, salary max 1000 Euro with no future for higher incomes. This means, dropping in retail sales...

    5) Stock exhanges are overheated in Europe (DAX/FTSE).

    Thus I'm short since friday, and expect 1,2850 open 10.00 p.m. GMT sunday (Tokyo open).
    -----------------
    Ok, lets, list some factors for going up in EURUSD....:
    1) UDS_I is at channel line - might drop, so EUR wil rise

    2) Sone blind people, that do not know anything about what's going on in Europe (Spain, Italy, UK) will expect 5% GDP in 2013

    3) positive divergence in MCAD

    ----------------
    Neutral OPEN - yes, possible.... will make next 24h move much stronger... I would like to mention, that in Cyprus most of grocery stories are running out of goods and have no possibility to pay for new orders...

    I think, we face now end of financial world we have lived in. Now we see, that EU and Banksers can shut down Banks, steal in bright day, and pay bonuses for their self...

    Ps. What would You do, if You were Rybolovlev (app. 9'000'000'000 USD) with .... lagre part in frozen now Cyprus Bank... ???

  11. #27626
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    Don't know what to think of Cyprus but staying on to the technical would like to see a move towards 324D..........
    รูป รูป      
    FXTA, lukes8, Skypro and 1 others like this.
    Patience is virtue. The sooner we learn this all, sooner we can start walking to the bank. Good Luck to all of us—
    The trick is to wait the price meet ur limits, instead of one jumping in.. however scalps is a totally different scenario and is not everyone's cup of tea
    Disclaimer: I'm not at all suggesting trades when by either posting the graphs, or my entries. You can view it, but in the end you have to use your own logic and approach, as there is no certainty about this uncertain market...

  12. #27627
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    Quote Originally Posted by monkeyp View Post
    There are 5 factors, that are for the second big DROP:
    1) Initial LEVY was supposed to be 6,5 <100'000 Eur and 10% on > 100'000. Now (11 p.m. GMT) we hear that there will be "20% tax on deposits over EUR 100K at Bank of Cyprus and 4% in other banks". Not to mention, that rise in EUR (since the drop) was because of the fact, that Parliment rejected ANY levy...
    No now we have instead of:
    NON LEVY
    6,5, 10 %
    .... 20% on the biggest bank in Cyprus :|

    2) On Ichimoku, on 4H chart we have touched the cloud, what means good opportunity to revese.

    3) People are afraid in Spain and Italy that this might also there happen.

    4) In Spain and Italy there is SUCH A BIG unemployment, that more that 50% of 18-30 y.o. live with their parents, no kids, salary max 1000 Euro with no future for higher incomes. This means, dropping in retail sales...

    5) Stock exhanges are overheated in Europe (DAX/FTSE).

    Thus I'm short since friday, and expect 1,2850 open 10.00 p.m. GMT sunday (Tokyo open).
    -----------------
    Ok, lets, list some factors for going up in EURUSD....:
    1) UDS_I is at channel line - might drop, so EUR wil rise

    2) Sone blind people, that do not know anything about what's going on in Europe (Spain, Italy, UK) will expect 5% GDP in 2013

    3) positive divergence in MCAD

    ----------------
    Neutral OPEN - yes, possible.... will make next 24h move much stronger... I would like to mention, that in Cyprus most of grocery stories are running out of goods and have no possibility to pay for new orders...

    I think, we face now end of financial world we have lived in. Now we see, that EU and Banksers can shut down Banks, steal in bright day, and pay bonuses for their self...

    Ps. What would You do, if You were Rybolovlev (app. 9'000'000'000 USD) with .... lagre part in frozen now Cyprus Bank... ???
    When you paint a picture like this; it sure comes out scary looking......... Bur alas...... it's only fundamentals............... So I can sleep tight..........
    Instead of calling the end of financial world.............. just sleep tight........ Whatever needs to happen will happen.....

    GL...
    Patience is virtue. The sooner we learn this all, sooner we can start walking to the bank. Good Luck to all of us—
    The trick is to wait the price meet ur limits, instead of one jumping in.. however scalps is a totally different scenario and is not everyone's cup of tea
    Disclaimer: I'm not at all suggesting trades when by either posting the graphs, or my entries. You can view it, but in the end you have to use your own logic and approach, as there is no certainty about this uncertain market...

  13. #27628
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    Contagion
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    (='.'=) ..... ABC: Always Be Counting !!
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  14. #27629
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    Quote Originally Posted by SkiBunny View Post
    Contagion
    There is another save the world meeting today and tomorrow in Brussels, they might try to announce a positive development before the markets open .
    stryker likes this.

  15. #27630
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    Quote Originally Posted by monkeyp View Post
    There are 5 factors, that are for the second big DROP:
    1) Initial LEVY was supposed to be 6,5 <100'000 Eur and 10% on > 100'000. Now (11 p.m. GMT) we hear that there will be "20% tax on deposits over EUR 100K at Bank of Cyprus and 4% in other banks". Not to mention, that rise in EUR (since the drop) was because of the fact, that Parliment rejected ANY levy...
    No now we have instead of:
    NON LEVY
    6,5, 10 %
    .... 20% on the biggest bank in Cyprus :|

    2) On Ichimoku, on 4H chart we have touched the cloud, what means good opportunity to revese.

    3) People are afraid in Spain and Italy that this might also there happen.

    4) In Spain and Italy there is SUCH A BIG unemployment, that more that 50% of 18-30 y.o. live with their parents, no kids, salary max 1000 Euro with no future for higher incomes. This means, dropping in retail sales...

    5) Stock exhanges are overheated in Europe (DAX/FTSE).

    Thus I'm short since friday, and expect 1,2850 open 10.00 p.m. GMT sunday (Tokyo open).
    -----------------
    Ok, lets, list some factors for going up in EURUSD....:
    1) UDS_I is at channel line - might drop, so EUR wil rise

    2) Sone blind people, that do not know anything about what's going on in Europe (Spain, Italy, UK) will expect 5% GDP in 2013

    3) positive divergence in MCAD

    ----------------
    Neutral OPEN - yes, possible.... will make next 24h move much stronger... I would like to mention, that in Cyprus most of grocery stories are running out of goods and have no possibility to pay for new orders...

    I think, we face now end of financial world we have lived in. Now we see, that EU and Banksers can shut down Banks, steal in bright day, and pay bonuses for their self...

    Ps. What would You do, if You were Rybolovlev (app. 9'000'000'000 USD) with .... lagre part in frozen now Cyprus Bank... ???
    Cypress is basically a haven for tax evaders from the EU. Its a totally different situation from Spain and Italy. There is no levy on deposits anywhere else in the EU and none on small depositors in Cypress. The Germans figure they shouldn't have to bail out crooks and thieves which is understandable.
    If the supermarkets have run out of goods in Cypress people will go the Greece or somewhere else nearby to buy stuff. You'd be surprised the extent to which people in these smaller Mediterranean islands make due in these situations...A lot of them just live off the land in agrarian communities.
    stryker likes this.

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