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Thread: EURUSD H1 2013

  1. #23176
    CodyB's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Robert Eckert View Post
    I've tried that as well. Since December, when they finally got the money to Greece that was needed six months earlier, I have stopped reading any news from Europe. Just looking at how the market was bouncing up and down, I thought it would be in a range for a while, shorted a couple times during the 300-pip surge, went long for a 60-pip drop, and so on.

    Yes, I see that. I don't post here much anymore because everything I think is such a strong contrarian indicator.

    I have to think in terms of macro-economics in terms of its possible impact on my life. Europe, apparently, is determined to drop out of the "First World" economy, which will have a serious impact on the whole planet. Possibly they will do no worse than the "lost decade" scenario that played out in Japan, returning to positive growth c. 2018 (projections that Europe will grow in 2013 are simply absurd), but I am coming to think that is over-optimistic. Nothing, of course, can change until the euro stops being overvalued by 20%; and that, apparently, will not be allowed to change until the middle class is liquidated completely.
    Mr. Eckert, its nice to see you still around and not holding such a strong bias anymore. All you need to do is learn to read charts and TBH, thats not all that difficult to do. My PDF I shared breaks it down into simple baby steps that if taken one step at a time I feel anyone can profit from this market....Patience, pick your price and wait.
    I use to scalp away all day everyday on the 5 min charts and loved it, still do some but it can and will wear you out. I went from 5220 trades in 11 months(average over 4300 in 8 yrs) to 1578 the last 11 months and from 82.30% average to 84.36 and the last 11 was better ROI too.
    You have the understanding of the financials to a point, all you need to do is step back and look at the entire market, the 6 drivers of the $index and the 6 global drivers. When all of these align you know where the market is headed with little doubt, same goes as some align and others are not, your chances of success grow as the numbers in alignment also grows. Its really a no brainer then. That and a strong understanding of S/R aka Supply/Demand and Fibs can give one a comfortable living from this market. No need for squiggly lines. I've made the suggestion before and am again because I think if you, you more than most 'newbies' I see can make it in this business..BUT...not until you let go of the fundi bias you hold. and remember that there are 2, yes 2 pairs being traded on all currencies.
    Don't Chase the market let the market come to you

  2. #23177
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    Strange day !

    Personally today my preference was short, US data and politics declarations push Eu up but it don't break 34. Personally I think that was an opportunity for many traders to open short positions in a good point. My view remain short, we remain in the range at the moment....wait the break

  3. #23178
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    Still in a range

    Took me a while to find that trendline...



    Today is Friday, trendy day.... hard to decide. Good luck!

    Sorry if I cannot answer you immediately. I'm busy moving the market in the opposite direction...

  4. #23179
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    Quote Originally Posted by jimmy highwire View Post
    since i had some time on my hands ( market makers cleaned my clocks )

    why i think one more go at 34000 is in the works

    Attachment 177943

    not sure the analysis was correct, but the trade worked out fine
    out of the 33336 long @33754

    still unsure as to the definite nature of this move up. although closing above 3365 on a couple of the hourly bars stems well for further advance i chose to cash in the pips

  5. #23180
    Fx(MIA) is offline Member
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    Break out area

    I do not recommend following this prediction I am testing a new indicator but we will see what happens posting it for documention only.....
    Attachment 178143

  6. #23181
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fx(MIA) View Post
    I do not recommend following this prediction I am testing a new indicator but we will see what happens posting it for documention only.....
    Attachment 178143
    Elaborate please? I don't understand...

    Sorry if I cannot answer you immediately. I'm busy moving the market in the opposite direction...

  7. #23182
    Fx(MIA) is offline Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by Paul Chin View Post
    Elaborate please? I don't understand...
    expecting price to break 1 min range and head south to 1.3333.....currently 80% accurate.... so after 18:23 i expect a breakout

  8. #23183
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fx(MIA) View Post
    expecting price to break 1 min range and head south to 1.3333.....currently 80% accurate.... so after 18:23 i expect a breakout
    LIKE O~o LIKE.

    Sorry if I cannot answer you immediately. I'm busy moving the market in the opposite direction...

  9. #23184
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    meanwhile in europe tomorrow,.. LTRO data


  10. #23185
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    Quote Originally Posted by CodyB View Post
    Mr. Eckert, its nice to see you still around and not holding such a strong bias anymore.
    Well, I'm not really around very much anymore. Once in a while I throw a couple hundred more bucks in, and watch it evaporate fairly quickly.
    Quote Originally Posted by CodyB View Post
    All you need to do is learn to read charts and TBH, thats not all that difficult to do.
    For someone with a knack for it, maybe. I am still worse than coin toss.
    Quote Originally Posted by CodyB View Post
    remember that there are 2, yes 2 pairs being traded on all currencies.
    I assume you meant to say "2 currencies being traded on all pairs". I remember last summer you chiding me when I saw grave weaknesses for the euro, but neglected to give equal weight to weaknesses for the dollar. Well, from the turn of the year I was seeing dollar looking poised for a great runup, and it was-- if only I had, say, gone long USD/JPY or USD/CAD. But I saw euro poised for a sharp drop, and thought finally that EUR/USD was the matchup of weakest vs. strongest in the same pair, and was completely blind-sided by the 300-pip jump.

  11. #23186
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    [QUOTE=CodyB;1503381]Mr. Eckert, its nice to see you still around and not holding such a strong bias anymore. All you need to do is learn to read charts and TBH, thats not all that difficult to do. My PDF I shared breaks it down into simple baby steps that if taken one step at a time I feel anyone can profit from this market....Patience, pick your price and wait.


    Hi CodyB,
    I haven't been on this thread for a while, but saw you mention a PDF. Would it be possible to tell me the location of where you shared it as I am unable to find it in back-posts?
    Thanks

  12. #23187
    Robert Eckert is offline Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by oztrader View Post
    Hi CodyB,
    I haven't been on this thread for a while, but saw you mention a PDF. Would it be possible to tell me the location of where you shared it as I am unable to find it in back-posts?
    Thanks
    Here is one on trendline drawing that I think I got from Cody:
    TDTL.pdf

  13. #23188
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    **Long term**

    the Euro is very Bearish. There isn't much of a basis to argue otherwise, except "how someone feels". The numbers and fundamentals always determine the price action **eventually**. The E.U. banks are still leveraged three times to that of the United States and have made no attempt to recap and reduce risk like the U.S. has over the last four years. That "tail risk" you hear about is still very much there.

    The countries that have been dragging on the Euro are getting heavier, not lighter. You are just starting to see the larger economies begin to feel the pull, with Spain on the chopping block soon and France to come shortly after. Look up the fundamentals on the French economy some time; they're in trouble. The only reason you haven't heard it is because there are more pressing matters.

    But this can take years to unravel.



    **Short term**

    The Euro is a solid bull. I'm definitely playing it to the upside this week even though it's been jumping up already. The Euro and the U.S. Dollar are both bulls to me for the next few days against pretty much all other pairs (a trend that I expected to start today), but I believe the Euro will push up against the USD for a variety of reasons.

    Remember that daily price movement is mostly determined by the business cycle and investor sentiment but in the long run, the fundamentals will eventually get the price to where it belongs. Hell, this was the entire basis for the infamous Keynes quote, "In the end, we're all dead" as a reference to using spending to speed the business cycle along and remove investor fear before the fundamentals took their sweet time to push it there.


    As always, click that Rep button for me and provide me with any feedback you have as long as it's constructive!
    Last edited by Blake_X; 01-25-2013 at 01:23 AM.

  14. #23189
    Talus is offline Member
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    I am going to fade this rally..

  15. #23190
    ali_l is online now Member
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    wait for ifo

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