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Thread: EURUSD H1 2013

  1. #20626
    CodyB's Avatar
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    From JPMorgan FYI only

    This is in no way to be used for any trade advise, This is all that pertains to the Eur/Usd

    J.P. Morgan Outlook for Volatility and Correlations in 2013

    For the first time in seven years there were no large spikes in the VIX as low volatility in 2012 surprised investors. The key drivers of volatility were the European debt crisis in H1, central banks actions in late summer, and concerns about the US fiscal cliff in the fall. Scratching below the surface of the low S&P 500 volatility, one discovers a troubling picture of record low stock volatility and high correlations – both damaging to fundamental stock investors. This environment was a result of a downward spiral of low volumes, macro uncertainty, declining participation of fundamental investors, and fund outflows.

    Given the sharp bounce we've had from Friday's lows we thought we'd run just the topside through our spreadsheet to see how the topside stacks up as potential overbought levels develop. We ran 15 different M/As between very short term (24-120-hrs) and very long term (144 days-55-wks)The blended result tells us a rudimentary moving average model used as a core base for most momentum models, tells us 2 important things.
    First off, these models are fully loaded up long EUR/USD above 1.3005; secondly 1.3175/1.3315 drives the entire model into overbought territory - meaning it will most likely correct after that as the long term averages push the models ability to reach higher levels. Short term models 24-hrs to 13 days reveal overbought levels 1.3045/1.3175 with the upper range hard to achieve as it's +3.0 Bolli band reading on 200-hr thru 13-d M/As.
    Short term cycle delineators - 21 thru 55 DMAs - reveal 1.3120 the most likely peak and under extreme price action 1.3230 (+3.0 Bollingers) longer term models get overbought 1.3210/1.3385 and the very long term models 1.3395/1.3710 ... anything 21-days and up rarely hits +3.0 Bolli band readings so 1.3210/1.3395 should cap any serious price surge. The blended model's average resides at 1.2898 so whilst price action is north of there we are bullish.
    The model returns to neutral (+1/-1 unit EUR/USD) at 1.2930/1.2915 which gives us a sense what the algos are looking at when prices dip below 1.2900. Basically you buy until we break 1.2880 and if we close below there momentum models are building shorts. Topside, once we start hitting 1.3045 and higher, shorter models are hitting overbought levels and will start paring back longs. Depending on which way you're set you can base your strategy around what those momentum based systems will do at progressively higher (or lower) levels.
    Don't Chase the market let the market come to you

  2. #20627
    naskosdeal is offline Member
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    LIKE !!!!

  3. #20628
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    Daily View

    My view of the daily chart. I've read a few times where someone commented about a false breakout; it depends on the TL you are looking at as if you look at the bigger picture, price has not even reached to TL to breakout. The screenshot below if all the same time frame, just zoomed in.

    Name:  EU-Daily.2012.12.11.png
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    Brian
    -Good things come to those who are persistent.

  4. #20629
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    Hoo
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    Shorted from 2995, stopped at 3007 while sleeping. Seems that bulls still not giving up, and several test to break 1.3 level, I think we may see another quick spike to 1.303 (61.8%) to satisfy the needs of the bulls before heading down. 1.308 which I projected earlier may not be reached within the next hours given that stochastic already high enough for some resting.
    Never rush, missed the bulls, wait for the bears, plenty of opportunities out there

  5. #20630
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    Quote Originally Posted by blackbell View Post
    Hi Hoo,
    I'm waiting patiently to load short around .500 to .786 fibo from last swing that is between 1.30-3070
    On Aussie, also waiting to short 1.0568-70 to complete the bearish bat on 4H chart.
    Edit : If AU can't pass 1.0520 the .786 of the swing from 1.0622 to the low 1.0147, then possibility PA forming bearish butterfly on Daily chart. However, I could be completely wrong.
    GL
    Morning Blackbell, you are right that it crossed 1.052 indeed, I am already short with SL above 1.057. GL!
    Never rush, missed the bulls, wait for the bears, plenty of opportunities out there

  6. #20631
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hoo View Post
    Morning Blackbell, you are right that it crossed 1.052 indeed, I am already short with SL above 1.057. GL!
    What was your entry Hoo? Becareful it touch your stop then go down. I'm still waiting 10568-70 the 1.618 from 1.0147 to 1.0409

    GL to us.

  7. #20632
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    Quote Originally Posted by blackbell View Post
    What was your entry Hoo? Becareful it touch your stop then go down. I'm still waiting 10568-70 the 1.618 from 1.0147 to 1.0409

    GL to us.
    Enter at around 1.052, risk for 50 over pips but I am looking for a longer term return of 2-4 times.
    Never rush, missed the bulls, wait for the bears, plenty of opportunities out there

  8. #20633
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    Above 1.3012 we might see a Bullish move to 1.3050

  9. #20634
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    60' chart.

    Morning,

    D day FOMC

    Name:  d8.png
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    Good luck today.

  10. #20635
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    Quote Originally Posted by KUTERO View Post
    HaS on H4 and multitops at 1,2997 on H1



    06:25 utc
    H4



    http://shar.es/6P9lZ
    Last edited by KUTERO; 12-12-2012 at 01:38 AM.

  11. #20636
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    EUR on 2 hrs

    While 4 hrs favors a drop while been under 3020, 2 hrs can squeeze it higher to around 3047-50..
    Still feeling a correction possible to around 2945-47 esp if we drop under 2980...

    GL...
    รูป รูป  
    Patience is virtue. The sooner we learn this all, sooner we can start walking to the bank. Good Luck to all of us—
    The trick is to wait the price meet ur limits, instead of one jumping in.. however scalps is a totally different scenario and is not everyone's cup of tea
    Disclaimer: I'm not at all suggesting trades when by either posting the graphs, or my entries. You can view it, but in the end you have to use your own logic and approach, as there is no certainty about this uncertain market...

  12. #20637
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    Today is exceptional quiet. My view is that, as long as staying above 1.3, we might see 3030 or even 3080 first. Is like yesterday, stayed flat in Asia session, and then a spike in Europe session which I think is possible.
    Never rush, missed the bulls, wait for the bears, plenty of opportunities out there

  13. #20638
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hoo View Post
    Today is exceptional quiet. My view is that, as long as staying above 1.3, we might see 3030 or even 3080 first. Is like yesterday, stayed flat in Asia session, and then a spike in Europe session which I think is possible.
    Market needs to move... So far did two trades up +3 pips so quiet in the market.

  14. #20639
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    Quote Originally Posted by investrookie View Post
    Market needs to move... So far did two trades up +3 pips so quiet in the market.
    My "quiet" means not only in the market, but also in the forum. Indeed I felt so lonely with my AU short, so I closed it and take some loss . EU wise longing, with a SL at my entry, so is a safe trade, because wasn't sure where should the market react. Just that my hands are too too too itchy.
    Never rush, missed the bulls, wait for the bears, plenty of opportunities out there

  15. #20640
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    Seems market just wake up.
    Never rush, missed the bulls, wait for the bears, plenty of opportunities out there

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