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11-28-2012, 03:58 PM #19471
Mr. Mcleod, I was under the impression that a compromise would be EURO bearish, since the USD will gain strength from avoiding the fiscal cliff.
Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod
May you explain your reasoning, thanks.
with all regards sman1109.
11-28-2012, 04:05 PM #19472
Daily pivot point
Tomorow a little bit lower and give support.
Goodnight from Europe.
Good luck with the trades.
11-28-2012, 04:12 PM #19473
Politicians have always been playing their game like this - this game is several hundred years old - its like the stories you used to read about at school as a young boy - the fiscal cliff will be sorted and if they don't then economical impact will be minimal - and TV's job is to make it as extravagant as possible - making it like an action movie - but you need to remember that a politicians priority number one is to get re-elected and they will therefore do what ever needed to please the public. That why I am have been buying and this is something I have been communicating to the forum for the last few weeks.
Originally Posted by sebas
Central bankers do however what they want and if they tell you something then you should follow their lead - ask everyone that went short EUR/USD from the 1.22 level (if there are still anyone of those guys left in this forum). Wait for December and Ben Bernanke - if the politicians don't take action then Ben will - he will not allow them to mess up "his work" - he will most do whatever he can to avoid another recession and he strongly believes that what ever stimuli he has put forward so far is good for the economy so he will not hesitate. The market also believes that what he does is good so I will not stand in the way if we trade higher.
As an economist however I wish that they would let just let all companies/countries that can't stand on their on feet go bankrupt so we can get a fresh start - but that's my personal view and nothing that we can trade on right now.
Last edited by Alejandro Zambrano; 11-28-2012 at 04:38 PM.
11-28-2012, 05:03 PM #19474
Wow the spreads are sooo high right now... Looking at 14.6 spread for Eur/usd........
11-28-2012, 05:04 PM #19475
I agree bankruptcy would be the way to go for a few nations. The news is fun to watch, and can cause small moves. But the real picture, and better to watch is the larger time frames. Daily, Weekly.
Originally Posted by Alejandro Zambrano
EDIT: Big Ben is ready to go in Jan. The ECB is working on the EURO land banks. Draghi has a back stop in place to buy bonds. When I go short its just a fade.
Last edited by Luxuriant; 11-28-2012 at 05:15 PM.
Price waves which combine to produce the price movement do so by a process of simple addition.
11-28-2012, 05:26 PM #19476
Still high? Might be due to the rollover at 17:00 EST - mine are ok now - 2.1
Originally Posted by investrookie
11-28-2012, 05:31 PM #19477
At the moment on DailyFX i got a high @ 2967, on my broker it's 60, WTF
11-28-2012, 05:49 PM #19478
Do you mind explaining a little on the 3 colors rectangles you have on the chart following the prices, and what do WSI means?
Originally Posted by Summerset
Sorry if I cannot answer you immediately. I'm busy moving the market in the opposite direction...
11-28-2012, 05:57 PM #19479
Yea it went down. First time looking at the market at this hour. Normally sleeping.
Originally Posted by Alejandro Zambrano
11-28-2012, 07:44 PM #19480
weekly chart looks very interesting.
11-28-2012, 08:29 PM #19481
So now that everything went according to plan, what's next? The charts look quite tricky to me, in a way that nothing really would surprise me form this point. The 4H chart looks like a cup and handle (also on cable), but a trip to 1.2830 looks just as possible as one to 1.3050, we just need to find out which one will come first? At some point it would be good to finally close the gap in USD/CHF at 0.9183 but there's no guarantee it won't stay open for another 6 months...
Originally Posted by melbgirl
11-29-2012, 12:36 AM #19482
So far so good.. GOld made it to 1722.. Euro made it to 2950ish and cashing EJ for 100+ pips with one still intact..
Originally Posted by stryker
106.54-59 comes in as a possible neck on the inv HNS on EJ and selling here.. EUro shows a 2973-76 possibly to 2979 and I think may end up holding esp if EJ holds 106.60...
YEN 82.22 resis so let's get the ball rolling...
Patience is virtue. The sooner we learn this all, sooner we can start walking to the bank. Good Luck to all of us
The trick is to wait the price meet ur limits, instead of one jumping in.. however scalps is a totally different scenario and is not everyone's cup of tea
Disclaimer: I'm not at all suggesting trades when by either posting the graphs, or my entries. You can view it, but in the end you have to use your own logic and approach, as there is no certainty about this uncertain market...
11-29-2012, 01:00 AM #19483
Break of the bottom (i) on WSI momentum was the principal confirmation to go short. What it actually signals is that the momentum value of one lower degree cycle has been successfully contested & broken by a 5 wave impulse.
Originally Posted by Gpalstrader
This opens the way to a test of the top of the lower degree wave top level at (i) on price. That’s way I am trading the move down to such a level. Keep in mind this is a counter trend trade. By counter trend it is meant that this trade is supported by 2 cycle levels only. If it were more than 2 cycles, it would be a trending trade with much more potential.
In the current case, If you couple the principal confirmation spoken of above, with the confirmation that the w2-4 line of the last advance wave is broken, then you can envision the 2-cycle confirmations spoken of. To abort the trade, one of these 2 cycles would have to revert. This means that I would need to see a break > the top momentum value of the last advance wave broken above (>1.18 in this case), if I am to call the anticipated 3-move down trend, merely a smaller internal cyclic correction or flat.
Break > 1.18 in this case erodes one cycle, and calls the larger higher degree 3-wave corrective bear trend, (estimated to test 2835-2805)- that I am currently trading over. The position should then be aborted at market or slight retraction down towards entry levels.
Hope, the explanation helps, & I have not made it sound too confusing or complex.
11-29-2012, 01:35 AM #19484
2 points to watch
1.2930 - 1.2915
I"m bullish at the moment
Good luck with the trades today
11-29-2012, 02:05 AM #19485
Originally Posted by Paul Chin
I have attached some explanatory slides regarding the colored rectanges. After you veiw them, I would like to add that using i-day volatility measures for today, I think or "believe" that if the current position is successful, it should reach Tps in about 2 days time. Moreover, if volatility spikes in the reverse direction of the trade (more than 3 levels), then this is considered an omnious sign to abort the trade. - provided I am riding in profit of course.
WSI stands for wave segregation index. The indicator should be used to segregate between the different market cycles, by telling which cycle is moving in a 5 wave impulse at a specific time.
The concept is to multiply any oscillator by the ADx or DI of the ADx. By doing so this oscillator gets accelerated to show its Elliot structure (if the market or cycle is advancing). If it’s not advancing it will stay muted within it’s internal cyclic level bands (because it is simply not accelerating).
Because momentum leads price, Trade wise, the aim is to build an ea that engages the market once specific index #s or levels are breached on the WSI, signaling acceleration, coupled with such acceleration breaching a wave 2-4 line breach on momentum. The wave 2-4 line would also be imputed by specific momentum numeral values on the ea. On such a condition maturing, the trader is confirmed that a specific local support / resistance price “cycle” level will be tested, to take profits at (this too be manually imputed on the ea).
For longer term cycle trading, the breach of the specific local support / resistance price level, (3 ea parameters here) needs to concur, so that entries can be auto made.
Versions of the ea are still to be coded at codebase. And I intend to pass round for beta-testing if anyone would be interested.
For more theoertical reading on segregation analysis itself, please go to the blog - though I am sorry to say, that blog material gets removed on & off for updating and corrections, & I am some what back ward on this.