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Thread: EURUSD H1 2013

  1. #18691
    sebas is offline Member
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    after downgrading France, and dooms day prediction my Morgan stanley , 8% fall going to come in s&p by gold man is all mean to cover the short position and build long position in the asian market and keep the traders in wrong foot.
    now dow is kept down and accumulation is going on in asian stock market. once the asian session is over, they pull the dow up..
    what a nice operation.

  2. #18692
    FastLayne is offline Member
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    So much for my stupid prediction of higher prices!

    Quote Originally Posted by melbgirl View Post
    I posted this yesterday, I hope your stops were at the right places. If history repeats itself, the rally will run out of puff ahead of the next ones (above 1.2830).
    Hey Melbgirl,

    Great call on your part! Terrible call on my part, predicting higher prices in the face of the bearish divergence you, and others, saw and I ignored. I'll start including MACD on my charts as it illustrated the divergence very well.

    Luckily, the fact that prices did not take off higher in a bullish manner prompted me to exit my long with only a 12 pip loss at 1.2812. Imaging my relief when I awoke from a nap to see things confirm the bearish direction about which you posted yesterday.

    Here is a 4 hour chart predicting eliot wave 5 completing at 1.2570, as per esignal's Make or Break indicator.

    Rsi is below 50, CCI is below -50, MACD has crossed lower, and bearish divergence is confirmed on rsi, cci, macd and stochastic/rsi.

    I'm currently short and will getter shorter as price retraces until a 4 hour bar closes back above the 35 sma with significant cci.
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  3. #18693
    Gregory McLeod's Avatar
    Gregory McLeod is offline DailyFX Moderator/Trader
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    Something to the Thankful for this Thanksgiving: Limit Out !

    Quote Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod View Post
    Hello melbhrawe! Just a disclaimer that I am already short EURUSD at 1.2792 since the US equity open, so I have a bias. The recent moves higher have not exceeded my breakout range target in the 1.2825 area. So as long as the Euro trades below this area, I continue to be bearish the Euro.
    Quote Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod View Post
    $EURUSD 15-Minute Bearish Rising Wedge May Break South
    Quote Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod View Post
    $EURUSD Marking Out 1.2829-1.2794 Range: Weaker US Equity Futures Could Point to Break South I am waiting for a 5-minute candle close above 1.2829 to enter long or a break below 1.2794 below the range. I plan to place a top a couple of pips at the opposite side of the range.

    We'll see how that works out.
    Quote Originally Posted by tiktok View Post
    Having found the € key on my keyboard, I can confidently say that the €/$ is stuck in a range until it says otherwise . . . swing traders on the short time frames must be having a hay day . . . patience is the by-word for me until it breaks . . . and it will soon enough.
    Something to the Thankful for this Thanksgiving: Euro Short Limit Out !
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  4. #18694
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    melbgirl is offline Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by sman1109 View Post
    EURO USD hit my profit target before European Open at NYC time at 3 AM. I got 66 pip gain from it. So I think Europe will open Bullish now, by looking at technical channel, it is at bottom. Risking 27 pips for 78 pips, stop at 127250 and limit at 128300, entry now @ 127520

    Attachment 164407
    Yes, watch out for another surprise rally which will probably be the last one this week. I thought SP500 will have less trouble to continue the rise to 1,400/1,410, but it can still get there. What happens there could bring an ugly risk off move.
    People prefer certainty over truth.
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  5. #18695
    FastLayne is offline Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by sman1109 View Post
    EURO USD hit my profit target before European Open at NYC time at 3 AM. I got 66 pip gain from it. So I think Europe will open Bullish now, by looking at technical channel, it is at bottom. Risking 27 pips for 78 pips, stop at 127250 and limit at 128300, entry now @ 127520

    Attachment 164407
    Congratulations, Sman, on a fantastic trade setup and execution! I wish I had seen your post earlier so I could participate.

    Your track record is perfect today and mine is 0 for 1 so I swallowed heavily when I saw this most recent post of yours, which makes a lot of sense. If you are correct, in predicting this bottom, we'll get a 4 hour close above the 35 sma, with significantly high cci and then I'll cancel my shorts and join you going long.

    My feeling is that significant bearish divergence, as seen on the 1 and 4 hour charts, is not so easily reversed by a single and quick trip below rsi of 50 and cci below -50. In light of the chart showing an elliot wave 4 put in between the .25 and .38 fibonacci retracement levels, and price below the 35 sma, I'm optimistic that price will continue lower to a new low at 1.2600 or 1.2570, as predicted by the make or break indicator.

    Good luck to you but not so much as to turn the tide higher.
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  6. #18696
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    I went to sleep and this is what happens.

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  7. #18697
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    goodmoring...yeap it actually went a lot more down...lol...so it wasn't a continuation pattern afterall...are you stil short since 275ish?

    Quote Originally Posted by melbgirl View Post
    It broke the uptrend line so might drop to 1.2773. Advance looks to be slowing down and it might be forming a round top under trendline resistance at 1.2842.
    Market is never slow ...
    We're the ones in a hurry ... nsync with it

  8. #18698
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    3-Wave Correction or Beginning of 5-Wave Decline?

    3-Wave Correction or Beginning of 5-Wave Decline?- The 12784 level may hold the key.
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  9. #18699
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    Quote Originally Posted by FastLayne View Post
    Congratulations, Sman, on a fantastic trade setup and execution! I wish I had seen your post earlier so I could participate.

    Your track record is perfect today and mine is 0 for 1 so I swallowed heavily when I saw this most recent post of yours, which makes a lot of sense. If you are correct, in predicting this bottom, we'll get a 4 hour close above the 35 sma, with significantly high cci and then I'll cancel my shorts and join you going long.

    My feeling is that significant bearish divergence, as seen on the 1 and 4 hour charts, is not so easily reversed by a single and quick trip below rsi of 50 and cci below -50. In light of the chart showing an elliot wave 4 put in between the .25 and .38 fibonacci retracement levels, and price below the 35 sma, I'm optimistic that price will continue lower to a new low at 1.2600 or 1.2570, as predicted by the make or break indicator.

    Good luck to you but not so much as to turn the tide higher.
    You said it a lot more eloquently and faster than me!
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  10. #18700
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    Quote Originally Posted by investrookie View Post
    I went to sleep and this is what happens.
    The next southbound bus should be along.
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  11. #18701
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod View Post
    The next southbound bus should be along.
    Great learning experience for me. Sit and wait for the next bus and not be the old me and run it down.

  12. #18702
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    Morgan Stanley outlook

    Morgan Stanley have lost no time putting out their 2013 forecasts even though it is still November, and among their standout predictions are hefty slides in the yen and Australian dollar.
    On Tuesday it said both the Japanese and Australian currencies would lose more than 10% of their value each against the dollar over the course of next year.
    Morgan Stanley said it expects the yen to weaken to Y90 against the dollar by year-end from about Y81.57 now and for the Aussie dollar to drop to $0.90 from $1.0377.
    In the case of the yen, the Bank of Japan is likely to face greater pressure to ease monetary policy following snap elections on Dec. 16., the world's ninth-largest currencies-dealing bank said. That is because opposition leader Shinzo Abe, a former prime minister whose Liberal Democratic Party is ahead in the opinion polls, has been very vocal about defeating deflation and reversing the yen's long-term appreciation trend.
    "With the Bank of Japan likely to engage in a much more aggressive easing, this should catalyze yen weakening," the U.S. bank said.
    As a result, Morgan Stanley predicted a sea-change next year in the way the yen was perceived inside foreign exchange circles.
    On the one hand, the yen's safe-haven status would probably weaken, so there would be less buying of the currency during times of market stress, Morgan Stanley said. On the other hand, the yen's role as a so-called funding currency--that is, a currency sold to fund investments in higher-yielding currencies--would increase, it said.
    For the Australian dollar, higher foreign investment outflows would likely drive the expected currency decline as the Australian economy weakens and interest rates fall.
    In particular, Morgan Stanley highlighted the potential for U.S.-based investors to bring capital home.
    "With growth differentials between the U.S. and the rest of the world shrinking and interest rate differentials having been reduced there is less of an incentive for U.S. investors to seek returns overseas," the bank said.
    Morgan Stanley said it also expected the euro to lose ground against the buck because more monetary easing and a weaker exchange rate was needed to improve growth and competitiveness in the euro zone.
    But it warned against betting against the euro too early in the year as the European Central Bank activated its bond-buying program to help ease the borrowing costs of some its weaker members.
    "By the end of 2013, the euro should trade lower, but could rise early in the year due to positive portfolio valuation effects stemming from the activation of the OMT [outright monetary transactions]," it said.
    Morgan Stanley forecast a decline in the euro to $1.20 against the dollar by the end of next year
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  13. #18703
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    Silly question..... I take it that its not wise to trade for the next two days???

  14. #18704
    FastLayne is offline Member
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    Predictive ability of Elliot Waves and Esignal's Make Or Break indicator

    One of the things I love about Elliot Waves and Esignal's Make Or Break indicator (MOB) is their predictive ability.

    The chart I'm posting is of GBP/JPY, which, yes, is not the subject of this forum, which shows the prediction made 8 days ago that price would rise in elliot wave 5 to approximately 130.59 from the then price of 126.26.

    Price made 130.51 this morning, just 8 pips shy of the predicted price, so far.

    On the subject of this forum, the same MOB indicator on eur/usd 4 hours, predicts a wave 5 terminating at 1.2570.

    Color me short.
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  15. #18705
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    Quote Originally Posted by FastLayne View Post
    One of the things I love about Elliot Waves and Esignal's Make Or Break indicator (MOB) is their predictive ability.

    The chart I'm posting is of GBP/JPY, which, yes, is not the subject of this forum, which shows the prediction made 8 days ago that price would rise in elliot wave 5 to approximately 130.59 from the then price of 126.26.

    Price made 130.51 this morning, just 8 pips shy of the predicted price, so far.

    On the subject of this forum, the same MOB indicator on eur/usd 4 hours, predicts a wave 5 terminating at 1.2570.

    Color me short.
    Sigh I have been having issues putting Elliot waves on my chart. Hoping one day I will get it to work to test drive it.

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