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Thread: EURUSD H1 2013

  1. #18646
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    Thanks for the good laugh Cody, I'm copying this joke so that I can memorize it.
    "If...should" If the market is at support/resistance then it should react, if not get OUT!

  2. #18647
    fx calculator is offline Member
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    hello traders,

    i have been stoped out at 1,2815.... now no posi... this is not touch zone for me now. Regarding euro/jipiii.... same thing. Will wait till dust settle.

    GL/GT Calc.

  3. #18648
    fx calculator is offline Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by fx calculator View Post
    hello traders,

    i have been stoped out at 1,2815.... now no posi... this is not touch zone for me now. Regarding euro/jipiii.... same thing. Will wait till dust settle.

    GL/GT Calc.
    by the way.... we are now in sideways market till year end. It is swing what can you make some money, pips.

    GL/GT Calc

  4. #18649
    Alejandro Zambrano's Avatar
    Alejandro Zambrano is offline DailyFX Analyst and Forum Moderator
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    Sloowwww!

    Daily Average range for the last 14 days is at the same levels as end of 2007 - its boring in the short term but could lead to explosive moves as soon as we leave the range. I did some more investigation of the AUD/CAD setup published earlier today and statistical models warrants a move lower as Rate spreads, Base metals and Crude Oil gives us a fair value close to 1.01/2 - currently close to 1.04


    If we look at the relationship between interest rates – the markets are currently pricing in cuts of about -59 basis points by the Central bank of Australia – this in upper part of the range between -113 and -48 basis points – thus expectations about less interest rates cuts is overextend. In the case of BoC its to some extent the opposite - the likelyhood is higher that we see the market pricing in interest rates increases. The current value is +14 - the range is -42 to +50.

    For more about this setup read - http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/aud-n...ml#post1435171


    First panel is price and the second panel is the ATR indicator setup on 14 days.

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  5. #18650
    Gregory McLeod's Avatar
    Gregory McLeod is offline DailyFX Moderator/Trader
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    Euro Technical Analysis Report for 11/19/2012

    Analysis

    Mon 11/19/12

    Bollinger Bands Indicator:

    Conventional Interpretation: The Bollinger Bands are indicating an overbought market. An overbought reading occurs when the close is nearer to the top band than the bottom band.

    Additional Analysis: Volatility appears to be declining, as evidenced by a decreasing distance between the upper and lower bands over the last few bars. The market appears overbought, but may continue to become more overbought before reversing. Look for some price weakness before taking any bearish positions based on this indicator.

    Mov Avg 3 lines Indicator:

    Note: In evaluating the short term, plot1 represents the fast moving average, and plot2 is the slow moving average. For the longer term analysis, plot2 is the fast moving average and plot3 is the slow moving average

    Conventional Interpretation - Short Term: The market is bullish because the fast moving average is above the slow moving average.

    Additional Analysis - Short Term: Even though based on conventional interpretation the market is technically bullish, we will not classify it as extremely bullish until the following occurs: the slow moving average slope is up from previous bar.

    Conventional Interpretation - Long Term: The market is bearish because the fast moving average is below the slow moving average.

    Additional Analysis - Long Term: Recently the market has been extremely bearish, however currently the market has lost a some of its bearishness due to the following: price is above the fast moving average. Its possible that we may see a market rally here. if so, the rally might turn out to be a good short selling opportunity.

    Mov Avg-Exponential Indicator:

    Conventional Interpretation: Price is below the moving average so the trend is down.

    Additional Analysis: Market trend is DOWN.

    RSI Indicator:

    Conventional Interpretation: RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 47.40). This indicator issues buy signals when the RSI line dips below the bottom line into the oversold zone; a sell signal is generated when the RSI rises above the top line into the overbought zone.

    Additional Analysis: RSI is somewhat oversold (RSI is at 47.40). However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence here before getting too bullish here.

    Stochastic - Fast Indicator:

    Conventional Interpretation: The SlowK line crossed above the SlowD line; this indicates a buy signal.

    Additional Analysis: The long term trend is DOWN. The short term trend looks a little bottomy. A possible short term up move may occur. A good downward move is possible without SlowK being oversold. However, an upmove in SlowK for this bar is a little concerning short term.

    Stochastic - Slow Indicator:

    Conventional Interpretation: The stochastic is bullish because the SlowK line is above SlowD line.

    Additional Analysis: The long term trend is DOWN. The short term trend looks a little bottomy. A possible short term up move may occur. A good downward move is possible without SlowK being oversold. However, an upmove in SlowK for this bar is a little concerning short term.

    Swing Index Indicator:

    Conventional Interpretation: The swing index has crossed zero, identifying this bar as a short term pivot point.

    Additional Analysis: No additional interpretation.

    Volatility Indicator: Volatility is in a downtrend based on a 9 bar moving average.

    Volume Indicator:

    Conventional Interpretation: No indications for volume.

    Additional Analysis: The long term market trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is DOWN. The short term market trend, based on a 5 bar moving average, is UP. Volume is trending lower. In general this is bearish.

    ADX Indicator:

    Conventional Interpretation: ADX measures the strength of the prevailing trend. A rising ADX indicates a strong underlying trend while a falling ADX suggests a weakening trend which is subject to reversal. Currently the ADX is falling.

    Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is down. A falling ADX indicates that the current trend is weakening and may possibly reverse. Look for a choppy market ahead.

    Comm Channel Index Indicator:

    Conventional Interpretation: CCI (-37.62) is in neutral territory. A signal is generated only when the CCI crosses above or below the neutral center region.

    Additional Analysis: CCI often misses the early part of a new move because of the large amount of time spent out of the market in the neutral region. Initiating signals when CCI crosses zero, rather than waiting for CCI to cross out of the neutral region can often help overcome this. Given this interpretation,CCI (-37.62) is bearish, but has begun showing some strength. Begin looking for an attractive point to cover short positions and return to the sidelines.

    DMI Indicator:

    Conventional Interpretation: DMI+ is less than DMI-, indicating a downward trending market. A signal is generated when DMI+ crosses DMI-.

    Additional Analysis: DMI is in bearish territory.

    MACD Indicator:

    Conventional Interpretation: MACD is in bearish territory, but has not issued a signal here. MACD generates a signal when the FastMA crosses above or below the SlowMA.

    Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is DOWN. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is DOWN. MACD is in bearish territory. However, the recent upturn in the MacdMA may indicate a short term rally within the next few bars.

    Momentum Indicator:

    Conventional Interpretation: Momentum (0.00) is above zero, indicating an overbought market.

    Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is DOWN. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is DOWN. Momentum is indicating an overbought market. However the market may continue to become more overbought. Look for some evidenced weakness before getting too bearish here.

    Open Interest Indicator: Open Interest is trending up based on a 9 bar moving average. This is normal as delivery approaches and indicates increased liquidity.

    Rate of change Indicator:

    Conventional Interpretation: Rate of Change (0.14) is above zero, indicating an overbought market.

    Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is DOWN. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is DOWN. Rate of Change is indicating an overbought market. However the market may continue to become more overbought. Look for some evidenced weakness before closing long positions here.

    Important: This commentary is designed solely as a training tool for the understanding of technical analysis of the financial markets. It is not designed to provide any investment or other professional advice.
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  6. #18651
    Gpalstrader is offline Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by Macplauz View Post
    The recent high at 1.2830 might be an important top and a turn around could start. We have an ABC retracement on the daily chart (100% Fib extension at 1.2831), the low of October 11th and an ending diagonal/ three drives pattern on the hourly. Lets see how things develop...
    First target might be below the daily pivot point.

    This is no trade recommendation
    In my opinnion, we could have a spike throw 1.2855 to catch all stops and then go down. I'm waiting a short on 1.2852. GL
    Volume is the soul of price.


  7. #18652
    Gregory McLeod's Avatar
    Gregory McLeod is offline DailyFX Moderator/Trader
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    Be careful out there as Ben Bernanke will be speaking in 10 minutes (12:15pm ET)
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  8. #18653
    melbhrawe is offline Member
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    what about expected Bernanke Speaks??

  9. #18654
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    Quote Originally Posted by melbhrawe View Post
    what about expected Bernanke Speaks??
    Bernanke says that the effects of the financial crisis reduces the potential of the economy to recover. Traders are looking for reassurances of more QE. If Fed has to raise rates sooner due to inflation, this could send dollar higher. Look for possible change in guidance of US rates going forward.
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  10. #18655
    Gpalstrader is offline Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by melbhrawe View Post
    what about expected Bernanke Speaks??
    Bearish move
    Volume is the soul of price.


  11. #18656
    didoda's Avatar
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    Waiting for heavy short.....or long........it depends of movements of this hours...

  12. #18657
    Gpalstrader is offline Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by didoda View Post
    Waiting for heavy short.....or long........it depends of movements of this hours...
    Protraders are positioned before Bernanke speaks... Maybe we could have a spike throw 1.2855 but the BIAS is bearish with nice Iceberg Orders at the highs that means distribution.
    Volume is the soul of price.


  13. #18658
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    Took a short here and SL @ 1.2825

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  14. #18659
    didoda's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gpalstrader View Post
    Protraders are positioned before Bernanke speaks... Maybe we could have a spike throw 1.2855 but the BIAS is bearish with nice Iceberg Orders at the highs that means distribution.
    Short is my preference but I'm waiting for sure signal

  15. #18660
    Gregory McLeod's Avatar
    Gregory McLeod is offline DailyFX Moderator/Trader
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    $EURUSD 15-Minute Bearish Rising Wedge May Break South

    $EURUSD 15-Minute Bearish Rising Wedge May Break South
    รูป รูป  
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