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1. certainly thats one very bearish candle - i personally dont care which way it goes but i intend jumping on board for a few which ever way it may be

image hosting tiny pic

2. Originally Posted by stkelrey
...traders in the entire world watch my post and then have a meeting, that I don't know about, and decide how to make the market move agaisnt my trades and make me look bad. I know it, I just know.
x 27695799393

3. some more of my mind clutter

Originally Posted by biggari
imho an excellent chart analyst can lose money with bad MM and RR but an average chart analysis can still profit with good MM and RR (luckily for me)

some simple maths;

with consistent R/R of 1:3 and always having the same monetary risk for every trade (what ever the pips) you can lose 70% of your trades and still be profitable (ofcourse the profits are immense if you can achieve 50% win/lose)

RR and MM are the key to success in this business, and not the success of any individual trade

edit: to get a better RR i split my trade into two positions - i add the second position only when price has moved my way and created another swing high/low and preferably moved through a support to resistance / resistance to support level - in this way the initial position is moved to approx BE and the risk used for the second position

once PA allows the stops can be moved to half way between the two entrys - if the price moves against me after this the trades will be stopped with no overall loss

Originally Posted by biggari
i pinched this from CodyB:

Probabilities are the name of the game and will require you to buy into the following

1: Anything can happen
2: You don't need to know what is going to happen next to make money
3: There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any set of variables that define your edge
4: An edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another
5: Every moment in the market is unique

4. Originally Posted by Gino
Good to see you again my friend, been busy looking for a job. Well, it closed below your line, so?
Im looking at possibly 1.3020-40 area to attempt longs. Somewhere close to the monthly Pivot point.

5. i wonder who'l be proved right in time by reality

6. I think...only the Time will show...
Originally Posted by biggari
i wonder who'l be proved right in time by reality

7. Hello all. Looks like its gonna be a good one. I was heavy short as my charts at close pointed out and Ive decided to close half my positions at the gap open to secure profit. Now I have a running short at 1.3140 and a long Uchf at .9300. My targets are but not limited to EU 1.2960 and UCHF .9600 My charts are the same as they were when I posted Friday at close. Just a couple down if ya wanna take a look. Ill be adding to positions once these gaps close. Good luck

8. Originally Posted by lukes8
someone had a sl @3120, no disrespect meant.
In these uncertain markets 800 pip targets are crazy, thats why i scalp.

FXTA if u had cashed some longs this morning you would've been in profit, thats what i did altough i'm a perma bear.

got stuck with one long 3170 no sl for scalping but will close with loss as it is small.

Told ya'll about Greece last night, it's haunting us again.

GL.
I was thinking about cashing in the profit that i had but i would of reloaded on a pullback back down anyway around 1.317x. I definitely thought E/U would hold on around 1.317x level and you can see on the daily TF it had a nice bounce from there but Bulls gave it up Friday. Im thinking of trying some longs by the Monthly Pivot but being careful as the bears are lookin pretty strong.

9. Here is a weekly chart since June 2010 where we have had very bearish engulfing candles and continued with the down move. I have highlighted each one for viewing ease. 1.2450 and 1.18 keeps coming up on my long term charts. I see no reason why history would take a different turn this round. The red is my number one the green my number 2. I would not count out a strong bullmove after the 1.2950 area into 1.42

10. Originally Posted by Bignatx
Here is a weekly chart since June 2010 where we have had very bearish engulfing candles and continued with the down move. I have highlighted each one for viewing ease. 1.2450 and 1.18 keeps coming up on my long term charts. I see no reason why history would take a different turn this round. The red is my number one the green my number 2. I would not count out a strong bullmove after the 1.2950 area into 1.42
Nice outlook. Last week I was confident in 1.317x area holding support because you can see that a strong previous resistance was present. Euro bounced but fell through, so now im wondering if thats now going to be a strong resistance again and we come collapsing down. Very interesting times because my long term view for Euro is very bearish but i was looking for one more last rally to short this thing down below 1.2000.

11. Originally Posted by FXTA
Nice outlook. Last week I was confident in 1.317x area holding support because you can see that a strong previous resistance was present. Euro bounced but fell through, so now im wondering if thats now going to be a strong resistance again and we come collapsing down. Very interesting times because my long term view for Euro is very bearish but i was looking for one more last rally to short this thing down below 1.2000.
I really thought it was gonna hold last week too man, I even posted that i was long but it created a 15 min rising wedge i was fortunate enough to see and got out with a light profit. The current line in the sand for me is the green trend line you see on my chart here then 1.2780ish. A break of that im looking for 1.2450 and then 1.18.

12. Intermediate member
Join Date
Mar 2013
Posts
448
Global

Hey

FXTA, BigNat really good info but tht question is how do you trade it. The weekly Tf takes a while to yield its true direction. lots of news this week and if countries wanted to inject money in to turn the tides this week would be the week.

Join Date
Feb 2008
Posts
306
Blog Entries
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June 24: Dollar rises on QE withdrawal expectation

Market Review - 22/06/2013 00:44GMT

Dollar rises on QE withdrawal expectation

The greenback strengthened broadly on Friday due to expectation that the Federal Reserve will reduce its monetary easing by the end of this year. The single currency came under further pressure on renewed political uncertainty in Greece as Greece's small Democratic Left party decided to pull its ministers from the three-party ruling coalition.

Despite euro's brief rise to 1.3255 in European morning, price fell below Thursday's low at 1.5415 in New York morning due to the renewed political turmoil in Greece together with the expectation of QE withdrawal in U.S.. Price eventually hit session low at 1.3098 at New York midday before staging a recovery to 1.3159 on weekend short-covering.

Although the British pound staged a recovery from Thursday's low at 1.5415 to 1.5531 in European morning, the pair fell sharply in tandem with euro and then pierced through 1.5415 support to a low of 1.5368 in New York morning but rebounded strongly to 1.5456 in U.S. afternoon.

Versus the Japanese yen, although the greenback staged a strong rebound from Australian low at 96.87 to 98.13 in European morning on active cross selling of yen versus other currencies, offers at Thursday's top at 98.29 capped its upside and price retreated to 97.27. Later, despite dollar's brief fall to 97.33 in New York morning, price staged a rebound to 97.99 at New York before stabilising.

In other news, Fed's Bullard said in a statement 'felt Fed should have more strongly signaled willingness to defend inflation target; also felt FOMC decision to lay out a more elaborate plan to reduce pace of bond purchases was "inappropriately timed"; felt more prudent for FOMC to wait for clearer signs U.S. economy strengthening and inflation moving toward Fed target before making tapering announcement.' EU's Rehn said 'important to stabilize Greece political situation; important Greece review to be completed in July.'

On the data front, U.K. PSNCR in May came in at 3.1B, versus the forecast of -2.5B, previous reading was revised to -11.0B. U.K. public sector net borrowing in May was released at 10.5B, versus the expectation of 13.75B, previous reading was revised to 6.6B.

Data to be released next week :

German Ifo business climate, current assessment, Italy consumer confidence, U.S. Chicago Fed index on Monday.

France business climate, EU retail sales, US. Durable goods, retail sales, house price index, consumer confidence, new home sales on Tuesday.

Germany Gfk consumer confidence, Swiss UBS consumption indicator, France GDP, U.K. CBI distributives trades, U.S. GDP, personal consumption, PCE core on Wednesday.

New Zealand, trade balance, import, export, Japan all industry index, France consumer confidence, U.K. current account, GDP, EU economic sentiment, business climate, consumer confidence, U.S. personal income, personal spending, PCE index, PCE core, jobless claims, pending home sales on Thursday.

Japan unemployment rate, CPI, industrial production, retail sales, housing starts, construction orders, U.K. consumer confidence, France PPI, Italy, HICP, PPI, Swiss KOF indicator, Germany CPI, HICP, Canada GDP, PPI, U.S. Chicago PMI, University of Michigan consumer confidence on Friday.

14. Originally Posted by Global Money
FXTA, BigNat really good info but tht question is how do you trade it. The weekly Tf takes a while to yield its true direction. lots of news this week and if countries wanted to inject money in to turn the tides this week would be the week.
Well too be honest I dont really even consider fundamentals during my analysis, too many times I have seen the fundamentals play into the proper technical analysis, so I just automatically assume if my Tech is right it will travel to the projected points anyway. I got short at the last 15 min rising wedge which is also what I hope to be a right shoulder on a 4hour time frame. Ill add to shorts at the gap fill and hold them as long as we hold under the neckline I pointed out in previous posts. From that point I have mentioned my lines in the sands for the bulls and my targets. How you trade it and see it is up to you.

15. This is what I did for few hours, 50 pips gain, banked and I'm in chill mode.
Good play on A/U...could gain more though! E/U and U/J out with very small profit.