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Poll: EURUSD to breakDOWN or breakOUT?

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Thread: EURUSD

  1. #23311
    lukes8 is online now Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by fxaprendiz View Post
    With just one hour before closing time I'm fulfilling my pledge to post at least 5 times a week (maybe I already went over that limit LOL) to help keep the forum alive.
    I know, I know, pretty much everyone is gone for the weekend but as I wrote before, I'll post mostly after having traded/analyzed the markets.

    OK, random thoughts:
    EURUSD broke to the upside but not without first luring me into taking a last short trade as it made a fake spike down. That would be trade #8 in below Trading History chart.
    I closed the position for a loss of 103 pips few minutes ago. First +100 loss taken since the beginning of the year, but according to my New year resolutions, I'm not going to let this bad trade to put me down. Losses are part of the game and I'm still ahead for the month.
    EU may drift down to 1.3400 by Sun/Mon but I wasn't keen into letting this short open during the weekend: too close to the 1.3485 "death" line, a possible gap up and widening spreads made me uncomfortable holding this position with the only purpose of making it a smaller loss.

    Attachment 178446
    .........................................

    Besides, I opened a short position on EURJPY based on this Bearish Crab on the daily chart, and it's already 30pips on profit, with just a small retracement, so this position will probably offset the loss on EURUSD.

    Attachment 178449
    .........................................

    What now with EURUSD?

    Well, we have come withing only 7 pips from the 1.3485 line that I hold to keep my Long-Term bearish stance, so that really doesn't help much my confidence; but then again, precisely it is this kind of mental games that the "smart money" uses to discourage contrarian traders just before a big turn...

    This weekend I'll do some extensive analysis of USDCHF, EURUSD, EURJPY to see how valid my long term projections still are. These above charts are only the start of it...

    But I'll probably stay away from EURUSD for one or two days to see the Price Action in this pair first. One of the other things I'm trying to learn is to let go of my desire to catch the very top/bottom of trends, so this will be a good exercise to do that... I'll probably end up entering short again but not at the top. This time I need some reassurance of a strong move down, or at least a big Harmonic pattern like the ones on USDCHF and EURJPY... there is a bearish crab in the hourly EU chart, by the way, but it is too small to get me to go short again just before the weekend.

    OK, enough...
    Tried to send you a PM but couldn't, anyway I appreciate your analysis and look forward to what you see, GL

  2. #23312
    akq0 is offline Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by fxaprendiz View Post
    With just one hour before closing time I'm fulfilling my pledge to post at least 5 times a week (maybe I already went over that limit LOL) to help keep the forum alive.
    I know, I know, pretty much everyone is gone for the weekend but as I wrote before, I'll post mostly after having traded/analyzed the markets.

    OK, random thoughts:
    EURUSD broke to the upside but not without first luring me into taking a last short trade as it made a fake spike down. That would be trade #8 in below Trading History chart.
    I closed the position for a loss of 103 pips few minutes ago. First +100 loss taken since the beginning of the year, but according to my New year resolutions, I'm not going to let this bad trade to put me down. Losses are part of the game and I'm still ahead for the month.
    EU may drift down to 1.3400 by Sun/Mon but I wasn't keen into letting this short open during the weekend: too close to the 1.3485 "death" line, a possible gap up and widening spreads made me uncomfortable holding this position with the only purpose of making it a smaller loss.

    Attachment 178446
    .........................................

    Besides, I opened a short position on EURJPY based on this Bearish Crab on the daily chart, and it's already 30pips on profit, with just a small retracement, so this position will probably offset the loss on EURUSD.

    Attachment 178449
    .........................................

    What now with EURUSD?

    Well, we have come withing only 7 pips from the 1.3485 line that I hold to keep my Long-Term bearish stance, so that really doesn't help much my confidence; but then again, precisely it is this kind of mental games that the "smart money" uses to discourage contrarian traders just before a big turn...

    This weekend I'll do some extensive analysis of USDCHF, EURUSD, EURJPY to see how valid my long term projections still are. These above charts are only the start of it...

    But I'll probably stay away from EURUSD for one or two days to see the Price Action in this pair first. One of the other things I'm trying to learn is to let go of my desire to catch the very top/bottom of trends, so this will be a good exercise to do that... I'll probably end up entering short again but not at the top. This time I need some reassurance of a strong move down, or at least a big Harmonic pattern like the ones on USDCHF and EURJPY... there is a bearish crab in the hourly EU chart, by the way, but it is too small to get me to go short again just before the weekend.

    OK, enough...
    thanks for your analysis.

    just one thing about EUR USD.. my indicators are showing bearish butterfly 1H 4H and 1D TF

    using elemetaltrader1.62 and zupp_v117 indicators

    korharmonics doesnt show any butterfly

  3. #23313
    lukes8 is online now Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by FXTA View Post
    Final Weeks post, Like stated earlier, I exited my short from 1.3460 with a 9 pip loss and went long at 1.3459. Price action is showing strong signs of bullishness and it looks like we will be closing above the 1.3460ish Trend Line area, which to me, i will will stay Bull into next week, its still early with more than an hour to go till close but so far bulls holding it up. To backtrack on a previous analysis, the weekly falling wedge is still playing through so i would not be surprised to see 1.3800 - 1.4000 in the coming weeks/months. GL everyone and have a great weekend.
    Close under 60, much respect, GL

  4. #23314
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    Quote Originally Posted by lukes8 View Post
    Tried to send you a PM but couldn't, anyway I appreciate your analysis and look forward to what you see, GL
    Thanks, it's good to be appreciated...

    Quote Originally Posted by akq0 View Post
    thanks for your analysis.

    just one thing about EUR USD.. my indicators are showing bearish butterfly 1H 4H and 1D TF

    using elemetaltrader1.62 and zupp_v117 indicators

    korharmonics doesnt show any butterfly
    I don't rely on indicators for Harmonic fractals as most of them are too lenient with the requisites to show a valid pattern, and call almost everything on the charts a "butterfly", that's why they are showing so many of such figures in your charts.
    Korharmonics does a better job of weeding out invalid fractals and that's why it isn't showing anything in your screen.
    As I said, I'm just starting to look at the charts but at first glance I can only see the hourly bearish Crab in EURUSD... there were a couple butterflies on the 4hr charts but those are gone days ago along with their effect.
    A much clearer picture can be seen on USDCHF with a gigantic Shark on the daily and the posted EURJPY crab on daily as well...
    EURUSD was developing a bearish Shark of its own on the daily too but it was invalidated as Euro was taken above 1.3408...
    I have seen these many times with EU though: itself not showing any major fractal but its opposite, USDCHF showing the way with a valid fractal that should be present also in EU. That tell us the common wisdom of EU being a "little" more manipulated than other pairs and being taken to the extremes may hold some truth to it.

    Back to the Harmonic patterns.. I'm not against indis for those per se, but it would be a good idea for you to learn what are the minimum requirements for them and their valid ratios so you could double check manually when the indis show you something before you decide to trade based on the patterns.

    Hope this helps... have a good weekend now
    Trade Safe

  5. #23315
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    Quote Originally Posted by fxaprendiz View Post
    As I said, I'm just starting to look at the charts but at first glance I can only see the hourly bearish Crab in EURUSD... there were a couple butterflies on the 4hr charts but those are gone days ago along with their effect.
    The trading software with the charts I use is offline for maintenance but before it went offline I could glimpse a bearish Deep Crab in the daily TF of EURUSD, which by its size looks way more promising than the hourly Crab...
    I'll resume work on the charts tomorrow when they are back online...
    Trade Safe

  6. #23316
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    Thumbs up

    Quote Originally Posted by fxaprendiz View Post
    With just one hour before closing time I'm fulfilling my pledge to post at least 5 times a week (maybe I already went over that limit LOL) to help keep the forum alive.

    This weekend I'll do some extensive analysis of USDCHF, EURUSD, EURJPY to see how valid my long term projections still are. These above charts are only the start of it...

    OK, enough...
    Makes 2 of us.. Very interested in EJ........... But in order to tame this bad boy, you should also be looking into USDYEN.. This is another bad boy that if it wants to can do a pretty decent numbers on all the pairs combined together...
    By Late Sunday, I should have something.. Will be watching for your end as well..

    GL...
    Patience is virtue. The sooner we learn this all, sooner we can start walking to the bank. Good Luck to all of us—
    The trick is to wait the price meet ur limits, instead of one jumping in.. however scalps is a totally different scenario and is not everyone's cup of tea
    Disclaimer: I'm not at all suggesting trades when by either posting the graphs, or my entries. You can view it, but in the end you have to use your own logic and approach, as there is no certainty about this uncertain market...

  7. #23317
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    Aerocom made Moderator


    C O N G R AT S...................

    GL...Name:  congratulations1.gif
Views: 882
Size:  30.5 KB
    Patience is virtue. The sooner we learn this all, sooner we can start walking to the bank. Good Luck to all of us—
    The trick is to wait the price meet ur limits, instead of one jumping in.. however scalps is a totally different scenario and is not everyone's cup of tea
    Disclaimer: I'm not at all suggesting trades when by either posting the graphs, or my entries. You can view it, but in the end you have to use your own logic and approach, as there is no certainty about this uncertain market...

  8. #23318
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    ROUGH SKETCH - MORE TO COME

    This is just a rough sketch.. Heading out and may complete it later tonite.. But for now looking over daily, this is the picture that seems to be coming on the charts.. Also 3630-50 comes in as a way bigger imp lvl that 3490-3520... As that could be the neck of the ins HNS..
    anyways once I be back I be doing more thorough analysis...
    This for now is the major break structure one after another building up a bullish move...
    What I can see and assuming now is that a break higher to mid 36XX would cause a big surge on euro..
    Also a move higher to 3520-35 would be initially bullish as well..

    I still can't post charts.. Will ask someone later to do it for me..


    GL...
    Patience is virtue. The sooner we learn this all, sooner we can start walking to the bank. Good Luck to all of us—
    The trick is to wait the price meet ur limits, instead of one jumping in.. however scalps is a totally different scenario and is not everyone's cup of tea
    Disclaimer: I'm not at all suggesting trades when by either posting the graphs, or my entries. You can view it, but in the end you have to use your own logic and approach, as there is no certainty about this uncertain market...

  9. #23319
    lukes8 is online now Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by fxaprendiz View Post
    The trading software with the charts I use is offline for maintenance but before it went offline I could glimpse a bearish Deep Crab in the daily TF of EURUSD, which by its size looks way more promising than the hourly Crab...
    I'll resume work on the charts tomorrow when they are back online...
    Waiting on that from you, so are we near or at that D point?, GL

  10. #23320
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    Quote Originally Posted by lukes8 View Post
    Waiting on that from you, so are we near or at that D point?, GL
    The exact D point comes at 1.3487, but the Area I use for a potential reversal extends from 1.3461 to 1.3513; so once we enter this area the Fibonacci pattern can be said to be complete and you can expect some sort of reaction:
    1. a swift reaction and strong reversal;
    2. some struggle and back and forth within the potential reversal area, then the actual reversal;
    3. a continuation of the trend after initial struggle to past this area;
    4. no strong reaction in this area and price action passing swiftly through to continue the trend.

    Scenarios 1 & 2 happen when the fractal is successful;
    In scenarios 3 & 4 the fractal fails;
    I always prefer scenarios 1 and 4 because you know fairly soon if you got a valid or a failed fractal, and can decide whether to place a trade or not with relative certainty.
    The problem is scenarios 2 and 3, that can drag for days before resolution, and you don't know whether to wait it out or enter a position before a confirmed break out... not easy at all.
    Trade Safe

  11. #23321
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    Trade plan for next week

    Here is my first attemp at a Trade plan, normally I just post my position. Been in a long position from 1.3354, went in first at 1.328, tried adding at 1.334 then started experiencing the whipsaw and messed up a great trade. Anyhow still up 80 pips and decided to hold the long through the weekend. I expect Asia to take us higher Sunday Afternoon maybe to 1.3515-1.3530. I expect range trading after that making higher highs and higher lows, maybe 1.355-1.358 tops till NFP. Think we will get a sell off with the Non Farm report as everyone will be in buying mode if we touch 1.358. Sell off may be a retracement or it may be a deeper correction, will analyse that then. Will try to attach chart.
    รูป รูป  
    Last edited by Andie; 01-26-2013 at 08:25 PM. Reason: spelling

  12. #23322
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    if Asia jumps on then 1.3525 is it, then retreat 13460 I think ( lets see) too many with itchy sell fingers. no chart because showing same trend lines as you are seeing on site. eur/jpy showing signs of strain!
    Last edited by garr70; 01-26-2013 at 04:02 PM.

  13. #23323
    GuyMenashe is offline Registered User
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    EURJPY short looks promissing also if you consider the RSI on daily chart

  14. #23324
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    EUR/USD & USD/CHF correlation

    I posted this the other day in my journal here
    http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/my-tr...ml#post1500345

    Over on the Elliot Wave thread Gregg pondered the question about which way the USD/CHF is headed.
    I ran the lines and I see it heading up to around .9515 with a minimum of .9433.
    Currently at .9300. Stops would be around .9089. Slightly better than a 1:1 ratio.
    This is based on a 4h chart so time wise it would take a while.
    Might keep an eye on it for it to get to the 50% retrace of the 01/02-01/04 climb which is .92 but a better entry looks to be .9250 which is where it should intersect another down trend line (4).
    If that happens than I need to look out for .9220 area or a bit lower.


    Currently (01/26/13, 10:20 PM EST) USD/CHF is at .9259.
    Early Friday morning it hit .9222 per netdania (my charts are down for maintenance by FXCM).
    I was told that the E/U and USD/CHF have an opposite correlation. Meaning typically if one goes up the other goes down.
    Here is my question.
    If it is true that one goes up and the other goes down than shouldn't the EUR/USD be about to take a huge dive as the USD/CHF takes the 250+- pip climb?
    I am tempted to bet the farm on the USD/CHF.
    Is it possible for the USD/CHF to climb 250 pips while the EUR/USD also moves up or even sideways?
    Thanks

  15. #23325
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    Here's an article on JPY


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