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Poll: EURUSD end of year target.

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Thread: EURUSD

  1. #23296
    lukes8 is offline Member
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    A VIEW ON WEEKLY

    I EXPECT SHORTS EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT THAT IS JUST MY OPINIONName:  dtWEEKLY.png
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  2. #23297
    akq0 is offline Member
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    Hello guys, back today to my laptop.. didnt resist to open charts (not trading anymore this week) did well in eur jpy around 250 pips

    i can see the announcement from ECB was the reason for so much sideways..i had no clue about this event all the week lol .. congrats to who caught the train.

    - looking at my 4h chart one of my indicators is showing a bearish butterfly
    - i can see resistance at 1.3490 (50% fib lvl from 1.493 - 1.20) a lvl I have a lot of respect..
    - looking to the past we can see this lvl was tested many times..
    - eur needs a little correction (some indicators in overbought .. and a few divergences)

    counter:
    - upside momentum
    - good data from germany

  3. #23298
    Alejandro Zambrano's Avatar
    Alejandro Zambrano is offline DailyFX Analyst and Forum Moderator
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  4. #23299
    Gregory McLeod's Avatar
    Gregory McLeod is offline DailyFX Moderator/Trader
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    Also a Blender of Coincidental Data

    Quote Originally Posted by Des24 View Post
    Thanks Greg.

    I understand that you are the master scalper .. looking forward to learning more from you.
    Thanks my friend. If you can come to the Pip and Run trading room Tues., Wed., and Thurs. 5:30AM ET 10:30AM GMT

    I am also the self-appointed head of Lunar Trading. We'll see how these markets do after the full moon.



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  5. #23300
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    Gregory McLeod is offline DailyFX Moderator/Trader
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    Quote Originally Posted by chaudhry View Post
    Thanks Greg, You are The Master Scalper.


    Price holding the Resistance on 4hr. This week has been amazing especially last two days when EU started the move out of its two weeks range.

    A song dedicated to all my fellow traders...






    Happy Weekend Everyone....
    Cheers...!!
    Is that baby Ben Bernanke practicing quantitative easing?

    Let's do this again on Monday!
    Have a good weekend!

    Cheers!

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  6. #23301
    FXTA's Avatar
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    Bullish Euro

    Final Weeks post, Like stated earlier, I exited my short from 1.3460 with a 9 pip loss and went long at 1.3459. Price action is showing strong signs of bullishness and it looks like we will be closing above the 1.3460ish Trend Line area, which to me, i will will stay Bull into next week, its still early with more than an hour to go till close but so far bulls holding it up. To backtrack on a previous analysis, the weekly falling wedge is still playing through so i would not be surprised to see 1.3800 - 1.4000 in the coming weeks/months. GL everyone and have a great weekend.
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  7. #23302
    Robert Eckert is offline Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dave. View Post
    Given that the European Union is by far the largest GDP region in the world, if it were to get “murdered” this year how do you see that working out countries including your home country?
    By "murdered" I mean somewhat worse than last year: Germany and the Low Countries near zero but maybe slightly plus; most contraction rates in the high single digits with only a couple countries like Greece breaking -10%. If Europe keeps doing this year after year all decade, it will of course ultimately drag the whole First World down.

  8. #23303
    Robert Eckert is offline Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alejandro Zambrano View Post
    I like this chart - Spanish unemployment rate is at a 19 year high (its now at 26%) - during the great depression in the US (1933) unemployment rate hit about 25%. So how high can the unemployment rate go in Spain - will it double to 52% or will it just go up a bit further and then peak?

    Yes things are bad in Spain but I would say that we will most likley not get so much worse.
    A massive spike up to 52% is not in the cards, but continuing to drift upward into the low 30's is likely. The main message from the LTRO repayments is that the banks have given up on finding any profitable lending opportunities; would-be entrepreneurs wanting to start up a new restaurant or dress shop or whatever are not going to find any financing. Established corporations capable of floating their own bonds can raise some capital for expansion, but with exports dead (meaning, exports outside the Eurozone; exports within the Eurozone now amount only to beggar-thy-neighbor results of expansion here at the price of contraction elsewhere) and overall demand weak, there is not going to be much of that.
    Quote Originally Posted by Alejandro Zambrano View Post
    I do however think that the EUR/USD could trade under 1.20 before trading over 1.50
    The ECB obviously is just never going to allow that, even though a return of the euro to some approximation of sane valuation is necessary before any economic growth is possible. The ECB's mandate is solely to protect the value of euro-denominated investments, and so they will goose EUR/USD everytime it approaches the "line of death" ~1.225 as we have seen in the past.
    Quote Originally Posted by Alejandro Zambrano View Post
    but this would probably not be because a collapse of the Eurozone rather because US GDP will outgrow the Eurozone's.
    My language seems to have suggested a more extreme view than I actually hold. I do not expect a "collapse" of the Eurozone, but just a prolonged decay.
    Quote Originally Posted by Alejandro Zambrano View Post
    In the long run we might look other at drivers as all the austerity measurements that the Eurozone is implementing NOW which is not seen in the US or Japan. So after we leave the lows the Eurozone will be in a very good shape over the next 15-20 year.
    You apparently believe that austerity measures are good things. I am one of those who think they leave lasting scars and accomplish nothing, which is why I do not expect the Eurozone to "leave the lows" at all, at least not as long as it is under the Treaty of Lisbon regime, which I see as a suicide pact, that everyone is eager to fulfill.

  9. #23304
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    [QUOTE=Gregory McLeod;1504916]Thanks my friend. If you can come to the Pip and Run trading room Tues., Wed., and Thurs. 5:30AM ET 10:30AM GMT

    I am also the self-appointed head of Lunar Trading. We'll see how these markets do after the full moon.


    Thanks.. I'll check it out..

  10. #23305
    Des24's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by FXTA View Post
    Final Weeks post, Like stated earlier, I exited my short from 1.3460 with a 9 pip loss and went long at 1.3459. Price action is showing strong signs of bullishness and it looks like we will be closing above the 1.3460ish Trend Line area, which to me, i will will stay Bull into next week, its still early with more than an hour to go till close but so far bulls holding it up. To backtrack on a previous analysis, the weekly falling wedge is still playing through so i would not be surprised to see 1.3800 - 1.4000 in the coming weeks/months. GL everyone and have a great weekend.
    Have a great weekend..

  11. #23306
    lukes8 is offline Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by stryker View Post
    I have something like this...
    Thick blues defining a 500 pips odd range and we at the top of it.. Top depending how soon or late.. If within Mon-Tues than somewhere around 3480-90 comes in as a top.. Blue dotted are current range play.. Red indicates the first correction point of a drop and a drop under can bring it somewhere around 2950-70...

    GL...
    I like that butchery thing on the chart quote

  12. #23307
    fxaprendiz's Avatar
    fxaprendiz is online now Forum Governor May 2014
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    With just one hour before closing time I'm fulfilling my pledge to post at least 5 times a week (maybe I already went over that limit LOL) to help keep the forum alive.
    I know, I know, pretty much everyone is gone for the weekend but as I wrote before, I'll post mostly after having traded/analyzed the markets.

    OK, random thoughts:
    EURUSD broke to the upside but not without first luring me into taking a last short trade as it made a fake spike down. That would be trade #8 in below Trading History chart.
    I closed the position for a loss of 103 pips few minutes ago. First +100 loss taken since the beginning of the year, but according to my New year resolutions, I'm not going to let this bad trade to put me down. Losses are part of the game and I'm still ahead for the month.
    EU may drift down to 1.3400 by Sun/Mon but I wasn't keen into letting this short open during the weekend: too close to the 1.3485 "death" line, a possible gap up and widening spreads made me uncomfortable holding this position with the only purpose of making it a smaller loss.

    Name:  th 01.25.2013.JPG
Views: 665
Size:  99.8 KB
    .........................................

    Besides, I opened a short position on EURJPY based on this Bearish Crab on the daily chart, and it's already 30pips on profit, with just a small retracement, so this position will probably offset the loss on EURUSD.

    Name:  eurjpy crab 01.25.2013.JPG
Views: 831
Size:  99.3 KB
    .........................................

    What now with EURUSD?

    Well, we have come withing only 7 pips from the 1.3485 line that I hold to keep my Long-Term bearish stance, so that really doesn't help much my confidence; but then again, precisely it is this kind of mental games that the "smart money" uses to discourage contrarian traders just before a big turn...

    This weekend I'll do some extensive analysis of USDCHF, EURUSD, EURJPY to see how valid my long term projections still are. These above charts are only the start of it...

    But I'll probably stay away from EURUSD for one or two days to see the Price Action in this pair first. One of the other things I'm trying to learn is to let go of my desire to catch the very top/bottom of trends, so this will be a good exercise to do that... I'll probably end up entering short again but not at the top. This time I need some reassurance of a strong move down, or at least a big Harmonic pattern like the ones on USDCHF and EURJPY... there is a bearish crab in the hourly EU chart, by the way, but it is too small to get me to go short again just before the weekend.

    OK, enough...
    Trade Safe

  13. #23308
    lukes8 is offline Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by fxaprendiz View Post
    With just one hour before closing time I'm fulfilling my pledge to post at least 5 times a week (maybe I already went over that limit LOL) to help keep the forum alive.
    I know, I know, pretty much everyone is gone for the weekend but as I wrote before, I'll post mostly after having traded/analyzed the markets.

    OK, random thoughts:
    EURUSD broke to the upside but not without first luring me into taking a last short trade as it made a fake spike down. That would be trade #8 in below Trading History chart.
    I closed the position for a loss of 103 pips few minutes ago. First +100 loss taken since the beginning of the year, but according to my New year resolutions, I'm not going to let this bad trade to put me down. Losses are part of the game and I'm still ahead for the month.
    EU may drift down to 1.3400 by Sun/Mon but I wasn't keen into letting this short open during the weekend: too close to the 1.3485 "death" line, a possible gap up and widening spreads made me uncomfortable holding this position with the only purpose of making it a smaller loss.

    Name:  th 01.25.2013.JPG
Views: 665
Size:  99.8 KB
    .........................................

    Besides, I opened a short position on EURJPY based on this Bearish Crab on the daily chart, and it's already 30pips on profit, with just a small retracement, so this position will probably offset the loss on EURUSD.

    Name:  eurjpy crab 01.25.2013.JPG
Views: 831
Size:  99.3 KB
    .........................................

    What now with EURUSD?

    Well, we have come withing only 7 pips from the 1.3485 line that I hold to keep my Long-Term bearish stance, so that really doesn't help much my confidence; but then again, precisely it is this kind of mental games that the "smart money" uses to discourage contrarian traders just before a big turn...

    This weekend I'll do some extensive analysis of USDCHF, EURUSD, EURJPY to see how valid my long term projections still are. These above charts are only the start of it...

    But I'll probably stay away from EURUSD for one or two days to see the Price Action in this pair first. One of the other things I'm trying to learn is to let go of my desire to catch the very top/bottom of trends, so this will be a good exercise to do that... I'll probably end up entering short again but not at the top. This time I need some reassurance of a strong move down, or at least a big Harmonic pattern like the ones on USDCHF and EURJPY... there is a bearish crab in the hourly EU chart, by the way, but it is too small to get me to go short again just before the weekend.

    OK, enough...
    Tried to send you a PM but couldn't, anyway I appreciate your analysis and look forward to what you see, GL

  14. #23309
    akq0 is offline Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by fxaprendiz View Post
    With just one hour before closing time I'm fulfilling my pledge to post at least 5 times a week (maybe I already went over that limit LOL) to help keep the forum alive.
    I know, I know, pretty much everyone is gone for the weekend but as I wrote before, I'll post mostly after having traded/analyzed the markets.

    OK, random thoughts:
    EURUSD broke to the upside but not without first luring me into taking a last short trade as it made a fake spike down. That would be trade #8 in below Trading History chart.
    I closed the position for a loss of 103 pips few minutes ago. First +100 loss taken since the beginning of the year, but according to my New year resolutions, I'm not going to let this bad trade to put me down. Losses are part of the game and I'm still ahead for the month.
    EU may drift down to 1.3400 by Sun/Mon but I wasn't keen into letting this short open during the weekend: too close to the 1.3485 "death" line, a possible gap up and widening spreads made me uncomfortable holding this position with the only purpose of making it a smaller loss.

    Name:  th 01.25.2013.JPG
Views: 665
Size:  99.8 KB
    .........................................

    Besides, I opened a short position on EURJPY based on this Bearish Crab on the daily chart, and it's already 30pips on profit, with just a small retracement, so this position will probably offset the loss on EURUSD.

    Name:  eurjpy crab 01.25.2013.JPG
Views: 831
Size:  99.3 KB
    .........................................

    What now with EURUSD?

    Well, we have come withing only 7 pips from the 1.3485 line that I hold to keep my Long-Term bearish stance, so that really doesn't help much my confidence; but then again, precisely it is this kind of mental games that the "smart money" uses to discourage contrarian traders just before a big turn...

    This weekend I'll do some extensive analysis of USDCHF, EURUSD, EURJPY to see how valid my long term projections still are. These above charts are only the start of it...

    But I'll probably stay away from EURUSD for one or two days to see the Price Action in this pair first. One of the other things I'm trying to learn is to let go of my desire to catch the very top/bottom of trends, so this will be a good exercise to do that... I'll probably end up entering short again but not at the top. This time I need some reassurance of a strong move down, or at least a big Harmonic pattern like the ones on USDCHF and EURJPY... there is a bearish crab in the hourly EU chart, by the way, but it is too small to get me to go short again just before the weekend.

    OK, enough...
    thanks for your analysis.

    just one thing about EUR USD.. my indicators are showing bearish butterfly 1H 4H and 1D TF

    using elemetaltrader1.62 and zupp_v117 indicators

    korharmonics doesnt show any butterfly

  15. #23310
    lukes8 is offline Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by FXTA View Post
    Final Weeks post, Like stated earlier, I exited my short from 1.3460 with a 9 pip loss and went long at 1.3459. Price action is showing strong signs of bullishness and it looks like we will be closing above the 1.3460ish Trend Line area, which to me, i will will stay Bull into next week, its still early with more than an hour to go till close but so far bulls holding it up. To backtrack on a previous analysis, the weekly falling wedge is still playing through so i would not be surprised to see 1.3800 - 1.4000 in the coming weeks/months. GL everyone and have a great weekend.
    Close under 60, much respect, GL

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