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Poll: Will EURUSD trade to 1.3200? or Bounce back above 1.3330

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Thread: EURUSD

  1. #19471
    sman1109 is offline Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod View Post
    Congressman Boehner's Optimism for a Fiscal Cliff Compromise Gives Euro Bulls Something to Love
    Mr. Mcleod, I was under the impression that a compromise would be EURO bearish, since the USD will gain strength from avoiding the fiscal cliff.

    May you explain your reasoning, thanks.

    with all regards sman1109.

  2. #19472
    Joke's Avatar
    Joke is online now Member
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    Daily pivot point
    Tomorow a little bit lower and give support.
    Goodnight from Europe.

    Good luck with the trades.

  3. #19473
    Alejandro Zambrano's Avatar
    Alejandro Zambrano is online now DailyFX Analyst and Forum Moderator
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    Quote Originally Posted by sebas View Post
    this cliff talk happening in US is a golden duck for few people funds.
    they keep on changing the statement aiming to create fluctuation and making good money out of it.
    all these statement have one aim i feel, first create a big fall in commodities and asian stock market and give a public statement in the evening and keep the net next day to catch the big fish who shorted in the market or creat heavy long in future market and next day dump all long and reap the profit.
    is other countries not watching this dramma?
    Politicians have always been playing their game like this - this game is several hundred years old - its like the stories you used to read about at school as a young boy - the fiscal cliff will be sorted and if they don't then economical impact will be minimal - and TV's job is to make it as extravagant as possible - making it like an action movie - but you need to remember that a politicians priority number one is to get re-elected and they will therefore do what ever needed to please the public. That why I am have been buying and this is something I have been communicating to the forum for the last few weeks.

    Central bankers do however what they want and if they tell you something then you should follow their lead - ask everyone that went short EUR/USD from the 1.22 level (if there are still anyone of those guys left in this forum). Wait for December and Ben Bernanke - if the politicians don't take action then Ben will - he will not allow them to mess up "his work" - he will most do whatever he can to avoid another recession and he strongly believes that what ever stimuli he has put forward so far is good for the economy so he will not hesitate. The market also believes that what he does is good so I will not stand in the way if we trade higher.

    As an economist however I wish that they would let just let all companies/countries that can't stand on their on feet go bankrupt so we can get a fresh start - but that's my personal view and nothing that we can trade on right now.
    Last edited by Alejandro Zambrano; 11-28-2012 at 04:38 PM.

  4. #19474
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    Wow the spreads are sooo high right now... Looking at 14.6 spread for Eur/usd........

  5. #19475
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    Luxuriant is offline Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alejandro Zambrano View Post
    Politicians have always been playing their game like this - this game is several hundred years old - its like the stories you used to read about at school as a young boy - the fiscal cliff will be sorted and if they don't then economical impact will be minimal - and TV's job is to make it as extravagant as possible - making it like an action movie - but you need to remember that a politicians priority number one is to get re-elected and they will therefore do what ever needed to please the public. That why I am have been buying and this is something I have been communicating to the forum for the last few weeks.

    Central bankers do however what they want and if they tell you something then you should follow their lead - ask everyone that went short EUR/USD from the 1.22 level (if there are still anyone of those guys left in this forum). Wait for December and Ben Bernanke - if the politicians don't take action then Ben will - he will not allow them to mess up "his work" - he will most do whatever he can to avoid another recession and he strongly believes that what ever stimuli he has put forward so far is good for the economy so he will not hesitate. The market also believes that what he does is good so I will not stand in the way if we trade higher.

    As an economist however I wish that they would let just let all companies/countries that can't stand on their on feet go bankrupt so we can get a fresh start - but that's my personal view and nothing that we can trade on right now.
    I agree bankruptcy would be the way to go for a few nations. The news is fun to watch, and can cause small moves. But the real picture, and better to watch is the larger time frames. Daily, Weekly.

    EDIT: Big Ben is ready to go in Jan. The ECB is working on the EURO land banks. Draghi has a back stop in place to buy bonds. When I go short its just a fade.
    Last edited by Luxuriant; 11-28-2012 at 05:15 PM.
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  6. #19476
    Alejandro Zambrano's Avatar
    Alejandro Zambrano is online now DailyFX Analyst and Forum Moderator
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    Quote Originally Posted by investrookie View Post
    Wow the spreads are sooo high right now... Looking at 14.6 spread for Eur/usd........
    Still high? Might be due to the rollover at 17:00 EST - mine are ok now - 2.1
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  7. #19477
    lukes8 is offline Member
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    At the moment on DailyFX i got a high @ 2967, on my broker it's 60, WTF

  8. #19478
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    Quote Originally Posted by Summerset View Post
    I think it’s possible to do more than a scalping short with this.
    On Chart below (hourly), there is a shown Ema dead cross, together with momentum breaking below top of (i), which confirms that a higher degree 3-wave correction triggered. It becomes possible now (on a short term basis) to sell the 38%-61.8% fibs shown (red ellipse) <2930-2953> with stops above top of (v) <3020>, & take profit at <2835-2805> (green ellipse). It’s is not recommended to hold shorts beyond this point. A bounce is expected at the neckline. There is a possibility though to see spikes till 2765-70/80 (Top of i). Which should be used to place limit buys at, - stops below A.
    Do you mind explaining a little on the 3 colors rectangles you have on the chart following the prices, and what do WSI means?

    Thanks!

    Sorry if I cannot answer you immediately. I'm busy moving the market in the opposite direction...

  9. #19479
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alejandro Zambrano View Post
    Still high? Might be due to the rollover at 17:00 EST - mine are ok now - 2.1
    Yea it went down. First time looking at the market at this hour. Normally sleeping.

  10. #19480
    chopin is offline Member
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    weekly chart looks very interesting.

    Name:  Screen Shot 2012-11-29 at 00.40.45.png
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  11. #19481
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    Quote Originally Posted by melbgirl View Post
    We might not see the day's low until NY comes in (unless we have seen it already)...then we'll find out what the end of month flows will do together with a full moon. It is often a EUR bullish time in a big way but not always. I think cable also has some upside potential.
    So now that everything went according to plan, what's next? The charts look quite tricky to me, in a way that nothing really would surprise me form this point. The 4H chart looks like a cup and handle (also on cable), but a trip to 1.2830 looks just as possible as one to 1.3050, we just need to find out which one will come first? At some point it would be good to finally close the gap in USD/CHF at 0.9183 but there's no guarantee it won't stay open for another 6 months...
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  12. #19482
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    Quote Originally Posted by stryker View Post
    lol...... but what you don't know is that USD faltered at the neck and euro higher to 2929 min and possibly can try new high at around 2950ish..
    We caight this move rt me on EJ longs and gold longs.. I missed my yen longs by 2 pips...
    Today got hit on gold and spx...... but back on gold once again off 1706.8...

    [8:25:26 PM] tahirkhan989: [8:17 PM] tahirkhan989:
    i think it wont break lower to 1702 in any case
    [8:17:40 PM] tahirkhan989: but 1722 now would be a good spot
    [8:17:54 PM] tahirkhan989: watch euro it pops higher to 2900 things can change in a jiffy
    [8:18:06 PM] tahirkhan989: but at the moment dont put too much on stake
    [8:18:17 PM] tahirkhan989: i have got a nasty bite on spx and gold already for the day
    [8:18:31 PM] tahirkhan989: EJ grabber now is to hold for a while for me

    <<< USD rejects all reverse
    even so these could be the lows for next few days,,,,,,,

    GL..
    So far so good.. GOld made it to 1722.. Euro made it to 2950ish and cashing EJ for 100+ pips with one still intact..
    106.54-59 comes in as a possible neck on the inv HNS on EJ and selling here.. EUro shows a 2973-76 possibly to 2979 and I think may end up holding esp if EJ holds 106.60...
    YEN 82.22 resis so let's get the ball rolling...

    GL..
    Patience is virtue. The sooner we learn this all, sooner we can start walking to the bank. Good Luck to all of us—
    The trick is to wait the price meet ur limits, instead of one jumping in.. however scalps is a totally different scenario and is not everyone's cup of tea
    Disclaimer: I'm not at all suggesting trades when by either posting the graphs, or my entries. You can view it, but in the end you have to use your own logic and approach, as there is no certainty about this uncertain market...

  13. #19483
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gpalstrader View Post
    Do you think EUR/USD will go down just for the confirmation you draw on the WSI?? And, the Top of I on the WSI Indicator, was not a confirmation?
    Break of the bottom (i) on WSI momentum was the principal confirmation to go short. What it actually signals is that the momentum value of one lower degree cycle has been successfully contested & broken by a 5 wave impulse.

    This opens the way to a test of the top of the lower degree wave top level at (i) on price. That’s way I am trading the move down to such a level. Keep in mind this is a counter trend trade. By counter trend it is meant that this trade is supported by 2 cycle levels only. If it were more than 2 cycles, it would be a trending trade with much more potential.

    In the current case, If you couple the principal confirmation spoken of above, with the confirmation that the w2-4 line of the last advance wave is broken, then you can envision the 2-cycle confirmations spoken of. To abort the trade, one of these 2 cycles would have to revert. This means that I would need to see a break > the top momentum value of the last advance wave broken above (>1.18 in this case), if I am to call the anticipated 3-move down trend, merely a smaller internal cyclic correction or flat.

    Break > 1.18 in this case erodes one cycle, and calls the larger higher degree 3-wave corrective bear trend, (estimated to test 2835-2805)- that I am currently trading over. The position should then be aborted at market or slight retraction down towards entry levels.

    Hope, the explanation helps, & I have not made it sound too confusing or complex.
    Sincere Regards
    Summerset
    www.wave-segregation.blogspot.com
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  14. #19484
    Joke's Avatar
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    Goodmorning everyone

    2 points to watch

    1.2930 - 1.2915

    I"m bullish at the moment

    Good luck with the trades today

  15. #19485
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    Quote Originally Posted by Paul Chin View Post
    Do you mind explaining a little on the 3 colors rectangles you have on the chart following the prices, and what do WSI means?

    Thanks!
    Hello Paul,
    I have attached some explanatory slides regarding the colored rectanges. After you veiw them, I would like to add that using i-day volatility measures for today, I think or "believe" that if the current position is successful, it should reach Tps in about 2 days time. Moreover, if volatility spikes in the reverse direction of the trade (more than 3 levels), then this is considered an omnious sign to abort the trade. - provided I am riding in profit of course.

    WSI stands for wave segregation index. The indicator should be used to segregate between the different market cycles, by telling which cycle is moving in a 5 wave impulse at a specific time.

    The concept is to multiply any oscillator by the ADx or DI of the ADx. By doing so this oscillator gets accelerated to show its Elliot structure (if the market or cycle is advancing). If it’s not advancing it will stay muted within it’s internal cyclic level bands (because it is simply not accelerating).

    Because momentum leads price, Trade wise, the aim is to build an ea that engages the market once specific index #s or levels are breached on the WSI, signaling acceleration, coupled with such acceleration breaching a wave 2-4 line breach on momentum. The wave 2-4 line would also be imputed by specific momentum numeral values on the ea. On such a condition maturing, the trader is confirmed that a specific local support / resistance price “cycle” level will be tested, to take profits at (this too be manually imputed on the ea).

    For longer term cycle trading, the breach of the specific local support / resistance price level, (3 ea parameters here) needs to concur, so that entries can be auto made.

    Versions of the ea are still to be coded at codebase. And I intend to pass round for beta-testing if anyone would be interested.

    For more theoertical reading on segregation analysis itself, please go to the blog - though I am sorry to say, that blog material gets removed on & off for updating and corrections, & I am some what back ward on this.
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    Sincere Regards
    Summerset
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