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Poll: EURUSD end of year target.

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Thread: EURUSD

  1. #18676
    melbgirl's Avatar
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    For all the event risk today was tight choppy range. Generally I still think this will be a market to sell into, but the S&P500 could climb a bit further. Today the EUR seem to be around the same level as the previous day ahead of the close. So can't rule out further gains and further losses for USD/CHF look likely. But not much. The AUD is struggling ahead of last week's highs and so it should as the broken trendline is now resistance. I closed short EJ for a tiny gain and will try again if US stocks top out. On the weekly EJ chart I'm watching a falling wedge pattern which would be very bullish but probably not yet.
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  2. #18677
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    ascending triangle 1 hr chart?
    - A game of Patience -

  3. #18678
    Gpalstrader is offline Member
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    well, Bernanke hasn't moved price so be careful with shorts because the range of today is being accepted and we aren't in a OTF's area. I'm out of market till tomorrow morning in Madrid. Have a good night and good luck!
    Volume is the soul of price.


  4. #18679
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    Quote Originally Posted by nikolas View Post
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    ascending triangle 1 hr chart?
    It broke the uptrend line so might drop to 1.2773. Advance looks to be slowing down and it might be forming a round top under trendline resistance at 1.2842.
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  5. #18680
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    The pair has been in a multiyear complex corrective down trend since Jul’08. We prefer to view the setback from 1.4945 (May’11 high) as a wave (Y) of the large corrective pattern which is likely to retest the key swing low at 1.1870 on multi-month basis (a break lower is also possible). The rally from 1.2040 (Jul’12 low) could test the 1.3285/1.3485 resistance before reversing. A reversal below 1.2465/1.2300 would renew the bear trend. Medium term downtrend view needs to be reassessed if the currency breaks above 1.3840 (61.8% retracement level).

    The short term pullback from 1.3170 could be a wave B which may be unfolding in a flat wave pattern. The pair is consolidating above 1.2665 in the near term in a wave (iv). The 1.2800/1.2920 resistance looks to cap now. A break below 1.2665 would test the key 1.2635/1.2465 support where bulls attempt to fight back. A reversal above 1.2920/1.3020 however refocuses on 1.3140/1.3170 initially.
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    Last edited by danko316; 11-20-2012 at 09:33 PM.

  6. #18681
    sman1109 is offline Member
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    Short Term Watch, Europe appears to open 11/21/2012 3 AM New York time bearish. MACD Divergence To Pivot Level S2 on Hourly Chart

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  7. #18682
    sman1109 is offline Member
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    Risking 18 pips for a take profit of 56 pips here for this short term trade.

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  8. #18683
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    Perfect catch!
    GL
    Quote Originally Posted by sman1109 View Post
    Short Term Watch, Europe appears to open 11/21/2012 3 AM New York time bearish. MACD Divergence To Pivot Level S2 on Hourly Chart

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  9. #18684
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joke View Post
    Took a short here and SL @ 1.2825

    Attachment 164315
    Morning, Stopped out with two pip and then down. Terrible.

  10. #18685
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    Eurogroup Fails to Reach Deal on Greece, Will Reconvene Nov. 26 - Statement [Dow Jones]
    When in doubt , stay out.

  11. #18686
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    Quote Originally Posted by melbgirl View Post
    I posted this yesterday, I hope your stops were at the right places. If history repeats itself, the rally will run out of puff ahead of the next ones (above 1.2830).
    LOL....

    Just another rejection ahead of TL resistance from the 200 DMA. I wonder how many more can the bulls handle? But we're back in no man's land which is not fun. We need to get either above 1.2830 or below 1.2715 to have some clarity. If today is the BOE minutes day (yes it is) then the pound might help to undo some of the damage but I would probably carefully start shorting again on bounces. Carefully because they might drag Draghi out to talk it up. Or might cling onto hope that on Monday they pull the rabbit out of the hat.
    Last edited by melbgirl; 11-21-2012 at 01:13 AM.
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  12. #18687
    sman1109 is offline Member
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    EURO USD hit my profit target before European Open at NYC time at 3 AM. I got 66 pip gain from it. So I think Europe will open Bullish now, by looking at technical channel, it is at bottom. Risking 27 pips for 78 pips, stop at 127250 and limit at 128300, entry now @ 127520

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  13. #18688
    sebas is offline Member
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    after downgrading France, and dooms day prediction my Morgan stanley , 8% fall going to come in s&p by gold man is all mean to cover the short position and build long position in the asian market and keep the traders in wrong foot.
    now dow is kept down and accumulation is going on in asian stock market. once the asian session is over, they pull the dow up..
    what a nice operation.

  14. #18689
    FastLayne is offline Member
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    So much for my stupid prediction of higher prices!

    Quote Originally Posted by melbgirl View Post
    I posted this yesterday, I hope your stops were at the right places. If history repeats itself, the rally will run out of puff ahead of the next ones (above 1.2830).
    Hey Melbgirl,

    Great call on your part! Terrible call on my part, predicting higher prices in the face of the bearish divergence you, and others, saw and I ignored. I'll start including MACD on my charts as it illustrated the divergence very well.

    Luckily, the fact that prices did not take off higher in a bullish manner prompted me to exit my long with only a 12 pip loss at 1.2812. Imaging my relief when I awoke from a nap to see things confirm the bearish direction about which you posted yesterday.

    Here is a 4 hour chart predicting eliot wave 5 completing at 1.2570, as per esignal's Make or Break indicator.

    Rsi is below 50, CCI is below -50, MACD has crossed lower, and bearish divergence is confirmed on rsi, cci, macd and stochastic/rsi.

    I'm currently short and will getter shorter as price retraces until a 4 hour bar closes back above the 35 sma with significant cci.
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  15. #18690
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    Something to the Thankful for this Thanksgiving: Limit Out !

    Quote Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod View Post
    Hello melbhrawe! Just a disclaimer that I am already short EURUSD at 1.2792 since the US equity open, so I have a bias. The recent moves higher have not exceeded my breakout range target in the 1.2825 area. So as long as the Euro trades below this area, I continue to be bearish the Euro.
    Quote Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod View Post
    $EURUSD 15-Minute Bearish Rising Wedge May Break South
    Quote Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod View Post
    $EURUSD Marking Out 1.2829-1.2794 Range: Weaker US Equity Futures Could Point to Break South I am waiting for a 5-minute candle close above 1.2829 to enter long or a break below 1.2794 below the range. I plan to place a top a couple of pips at the opposite side of the range.

    We'll see how that works out.
    Quote Originally Posted by tiktok View Post
    Having found the € key on my keyboard, I can confidently say that the €/$ is stuck in a range until it says otherwise . . . swing traders on the short time frames must be having a hay day . . . patience is the by-word for me until it breaks . . . and it will soon enough.
    Something to the Thankful for this Thanksgiving: Euro Short Limit Out !
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