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09-21-2013, 07:59 PM #49576
Last week showed what I was following as an alternate count in the GBP$. In that count price would likely travel to 1.83. However, the primary count is a triangle. In order for this count to be valid, price cannot exceed the terminus of wave C at 1.6744.
Is the price of the Cable likely to remain below the terminus of wave C at 1.6744? By inference the rule is "In a triangle, wave E cannot exceed the terminus of wave C." Is the price of wave E likely to exceed the terminus of wave C?
As the chart below shows, we have plenty of data to assist in answering this question. By looking at previous movements in the price of the pair, we can see it is likely the price of the Cable will move to a minimum of .618 of wave C at 1.6393. But, the .618 retracement would only give a minimum expectation.
The pair has formed a double bottom, we can turn to the double bottom measurement to determine a likely target. Here, the range of price movement from low to high and back is 693p. By adding the total of the range to the break point, we get a target expectation of 1.6673. This price target is considered a maximum movement and is below the terminus of wave C.
Finally, we can turn to Elliott principles for assistance in determining a target. If the black count is the correct count, the likely target will be less than wave equality but at least .618 of waves 1 to 3. Here, the likely price is at least 1.6330 but below 1.6612. However, if the the red count is the operative count, the principle of wave equality comes into play and the probable price is at least 1.6612.
Based on this analysis, I would say the probable price target for the Cable is 1.6673. Since this price is below the terminus of wave C of the triangle, the Cable is likely in a triangle as opposed to an A-B-C zig-zag pattern.
09-21-2013, 08:14 PM #49577
The AudUsd traced out a Killroy (inverted H&S) bottom and is in an uptrend. The price indicated by the inverted H&S pattern .9618, has not been attained therefore, I expect more upside. However, price is likely correcting in a wave 4 or b and will likely close the gap at .9222. As a result, I have labeled the count as an A-B-C with wave a complete and wave b underway.
Based on the range of the wave a move of 681p and the anticipated low at .9222, I expect the corrective move to complete in the .9900 area maybe, a little higher but not above 1.00.
09-21-2013, 08:28 PM #49578
Here is my view of the Loonie. This is one of the resource pairs. I mention that because the resource pairs are drawn to the .707 ratio in corrective moves. Since I expect the Aussie to correct an additional 173p, I think a comparable move in the loonie is also likely and would indicate a price in the area of 1.0475. This price is between the .618 and .707.
Afterwards, I expect wave C down to complete in the area of parity or slightly below.
09-21-2013, 08:57 PM #49579
The Swissy has clearly broken down below a 9 month uptrend line. I have labeled the moves as A-B-C with C under way. Any retracement will likely be held by the 9 month uptrend line. Based on my count waves (A) and (C) will be equal in the area of .8884. However, the current move indicates a price below .8800 into the .8789 area.
09-22-2013, 01:58 AM #49580
gbp/usd wave E is now in progress
Here is my approach to gbp/usd wave analysis
Firstly weekly chart shows that wave D has finished
with 1.4812 (115weeks).
Now wave E is in progress and it will be zigzag ABC
pattern. I think that it takes at least 20 weeks because
wave A takes 28 weeks and wave D takes 115 weeks.
Here is the daily chart updated, I think that wave A finished
with 1.6162 and now wave B is in progress , I thinks its target
is 1.5751 or 1.5427 level with 4-6 weeks.
And finally wave C will start at that level, its target 1.6360-80
level with 6-8 weeks.
09-22-2013, 03:07 PM #49581
Here is my view of the usdjpy pair. I think the pair is in wave 4 which should be limited to the 90.84 area. Afterward, I expect a rise in price to about 1.10 to 1.11.
09-22-2013, 07:34 PM #49582
I unliked your post because wave 3 cannot be the shortest wave of the waves 1,3 and 5 as you have depicted in your daily chart. Otherwise, I think your position is well reasoned. You target is valid and may be the final target.
Originally Posted by yoshi0123
09-22-2013, 10:15 PM #49583
Here is my charts,i think usdjpy is runing triangle of b since 103.72 of top.
09-22-2013, 10:56 PM #49584
In a running triangle wave b should extend beyond the end of wave A. That is why it is called running. You don't have a running triangle depicted in the chart you posted.
Originally Posted by delicate
If you have the tenth edition of EWP by Frost and Prechter, look at page 49 and 50. If not you can google it or go to Bulkowski and look at the pattern.
Last edited by aerocom; 09-22-2013 at 10:59 PM.
09-23-2013, 12:37 AM #49585
Thanks for your comment about my update.
Yes, I had unliked because wave 3 is shortest
moreover wave 1 and wave 4 is overwrapped.
But I thought again that if it was wave A it could
happened because of 5 waves inside wave A.
And my alternative idea was that 1.5101-1.6162 was
wave 3 and now wave 4 is in progress. But I thought
that if wave 4 was in progress, wave 5 would end in
early-Nov. I thought that wave E itselt would be shorter
than expected. Moreover wave E couldn't seemed to
be ZigZag. So I canceled the alternative idea
09-23-2013, 04:43 AM #49586
Sorry,sorry,my depiction is mistake.Because my English is not good.Wave b is a triangle in the chart.
09-23-2013, 12:48 PM #49587
Anyone have a silver count I would appreciate a perspective or 2
Just cleaning up all the leftover pips
09-23-2013, 03:53 PM #49588
I have been trying to post this for a while now. It appears we have been having network problems since about 10am. Anyway, price may be in wave iii of 5 down now. The fibs will give you an indication of where to expect a bottom.
Originally Posted by captester
09-23-2013, 05:04 PM #49589
Hey guys here is a wave study and it is not traditional but it is auto Generated, I designed it around a wave theory I came up with which counts the waves and subtracts the correction. please feel free to rip holes in it.... criticism is welcome
09-23-2013, 11:42 PM #49590
AUDUSD,Daily chart,yellow wave 3 equal 3.618 of wave 1,wave 4 equal 0.382 of wave 3,i think wave 5 price will go 0.86 area.
Last edited by delicate; 09-23-2013 at 11:59 PM.