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Thread: Elliott Wave Trading Discussion

  1. #49516
    aerocom is offline Moderator
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    Quote Originally Posted by aerocom View Post
    Here is an update to yesterdays post. I am still expecting a move down to complete the correction. You can see wave (c) of c is near the 1.618 projection of wave a and .618 of the retracement. However, there may be one more move up before the leg down gets underway. My downside target is in the area of 1.3045.

    The alternate here is bullish into 9/12. Therefore, I am trailing stops manually for maximum gain.

    Good Luck.
    Here is a follow up on the Eur$. It may make 1.3290 before the reversal occur. If this count is correct the final move will be a blow-off late tonight or early morning.

    Good Luck.
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  2. #49517
    aerocom is offline Moderator
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    Quote Originally Posted by aerocom View Post
    Here is a follow up on the Eur$. It may make 1.3290 before the reversal occur. If this count is correct the final move will be a blow-off late tonight or early morning.

    Good Luck.
    This count is invalidated. I am currently viewing the move as an expanded flat pattern. I am watching 1.3230 for a reversal if one occurs.

    Good Luck.

  3. #49518
    schmittstroem is offline Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by aerocom View Post
    This count is invalidated. I am currently viewing the move as an expanded flat pattern. I am watching 1.3230 for a reversal if one occurs.

    Good Luck.
    edt already complete?

  4. #49519
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    Quote Originally Posted by aerocom View Post
    I agree. But, think it is going higher. I run a 20 sma with 2 standard deviation on this pair for help. The bands are moving up in a nice trending fashion. I see some rsi divergence starting to form but it is real early.

    Here is the count continuation from last night. You will notice that price is out of the x-B corrective channel. I am thinking at least the 1.58 area overnight. If you channel the entire move and split it down the middle, the mid point comes in on 5-11 at 1.5783.

    Good Luck.
    Thank you. I went ahead and took that GBP/CAD short with a wide stop.
    “Amateurs want to be right. Professionals want to make money.” Gann SQ

  5. #49520
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    Franosh is offline Member
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    Only minor change of the details. Same plan.

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  6. #49521
    aerocom is offline Moderator
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    Quote Originally Posted by aerocom View Post
    I agree. But, think it is going higher. I run a 20 sma with 2 standard deviation on this pair for help. The bands are moving up in a nice trending fashion. I see some rsi divergence starting to form but it is real early.

    Here is the count continuation from last night. You will notice that price is out of the x-B corrective channel. I am thinking at least the 1.58 area overnight. If you channel the entire move and split it down the middle, the mid point comes in on 5-11 at 1.5783.

    Good Luck.
    Her is an update on the Gbp$ chart. I think the move is near completion. The red lines are sqrt progressions from the low of 1.4812. On this chart the lower line is sqrt 3 at 1.5551. The upper red line is 4 and comes in at 1.5801. Others sqrt progressions of interest are 5 at 1.6054 and 1.6308.

    The price points are good indications of support and resistance. You can see that the first attempt at 1.5801 was smashed then the fight back. If 1.5801 hold the next move would be into 1.6054.

    One thing we can take away from today's price action is that the move down was not wave 1 thus the triangle has not completed. We are in wave E and a likely target is at least .618 of C.

    Good Luck.
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    Last edited by aerocom; 09-11-2013 at 08:05 PM. Reason: added confirmation of wave
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  7. #49522
    aerocom is offline Moderator
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    Thought I'd revisit the Loonie. The red lines are Sqrt Root progressions from the low at 9623. You can see that the 3rd Sqrt root progression is closely related to the channel bottom which is also about the correct area for wave equality.

    We are in a 5 wave move down to complete a flat correction near 1.0203 but, price may carry to 1.0188 before reversing. Lets see what tomorrow brings.

    Good Luck.
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  8. #49523
    turmaz is offline Member
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    there is some sharp price action going in AUD/USD atm

    any updates?

    Mr A!?!

    thx
    Have a plan and stick to it.

  9. #49524
    aerocom is offline Moderator
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    Quote Originally Posted by turmaz View Post
    there is some sharp price action going in AUD/USD atm

    any updates?

    Mr A!?!

    thx
    Here is what I think it is. It is either complete or has completed the initial three wave move. In any event a pull back is in order.

    Good Luck.

    I changed chart after looking at Loonie. The red count is probably the correct one. Wave 5 is longer than wave 3 but, it is still just .8 times waves 1-3 and fits. Price is in a wave 4 decline.
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    Last edited by aerocom; 09-11-2013 at 10:47 PM.

  10. #49525
    aerocom is offline Moderator
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    Quote Originally Posted by aerocom View Post
    Here is what I think it is. It is either complete or has completed the initial three wave move. In any event a pull back is in order.

    Good Luck.

    I changed chart after looking at Loonie. The red count is probably the correct one. Wave 5 is longer than wave 3 but, it is still just .8 times waves 1-3 and fits. Price is in a wave 4 decline.
    If this pair corrects as deep as I am anticipating, there will be 2-4 overlap which would indicate a diagonal of the leading variety. Wave 2 is going to be deep to close the gap up on the open after the truncated 5th wave in the diagonal. Price has to decline to 8906 to close the gap.

    Good Luck.
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  11. #49526
    Mozart is offline Advanced Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by aerocom View Post
    If this pair corrects as deep as I am anticipating, there will be 2-4 overlap which would indicate a diagonal of the leading variety. Wave 2 is going to be deep to close the gap up on the open after the truncated 5th wave in the diagonal. Price has to decline to 8906 to close the gap.

    Good Luck.
    Hy aerocom

    You didnt expect this yesterday ...what happend??

  12. #49527
    aerocom is offline Moderator
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mozart View Post
    Hy aerocom

    You didnt expect this yesterday ...what happend??
    I don't know what you are talking about.

    On 9/9 I posted a chart where I showed a move down was eminent. In that post I stated that "I would wait." In an attempt to clarify, I posted that Seasonality suggests that the aussie would trend from early Sept to Early Oct. The trend has not changed.

    I hope my words are not confusing you or maybe I am anticipating too far ahead. Last night I posted a chart showing the potential for another rise after a possible overlap. If there is an overlap and then a wave 5, price would likely correct back to close the gap after the final move up.

    There are 3 possible counts here. Only one is possibly complete. One as posted and one, would be an a-b-c, A then a zig-zag pattern to complete the move up. If this is the case, the move down is B then wave C would equal A. Afterwards, any correction should be expected to close the gap.

    Hope this helps.

    Good Luck.

  13. #49528
    Daniel at DailyFX is offline Moderator
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    HELLO!

    Hello everyone!

    My name is Daniel Giardina, I recently came abroad from NY to help finish my studying as well as pursue passion for the FX market. I recently did an internship with FXCM where I developed macro reports, as well traded during the US session, and talked to FXCM's clients!

    I'm very interested in learning more about the FX market, and will be sharing my thoughts, ideas, and contributing my reports on this forum, so please don't hesitate to ask questions, or comment on anything that I may post.

    I will be working Tuesday, and Thursdays, and Fridays, and want to help create a talkative and a good hub for anyone wanting to learn or trade the FX market at the end of the UK session.
    Best,
    Daniel Giardina
    Feel free to ask me questions about the markets. I am usually available Tuesday and Thursday between 14:00-18:00 GMT.

  14. #49529
    turmaz is offline Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by aerocom View Post
    I don't know what you are talking about.

    On 9/9 I posted a chart where I showed a move down was eminent. In that post I stated that "I would wait." In an attempt to clarify, I posted that Seasonality suggests that the aussie would trend from early Sept to Early Oct. The trend has not changed.

    I hope my words are not confusing you or maybe I am anticipating too far ahead. Last night I posted a chart showing the potential for another rise after a possible overlap. If there is an overlap and then a wave 5, price would likely correct back to close the gap after the final move up.

    There are 3 possible counts here. Only one is possibly complete. One as posted and one, would be an a-b-c, A then a zig-zag pattern to complete the move up. If this is the case, the move down is B then wave C would equal A. Afterwards, any correction should be expected to close the gap.

    Hope this helps.

    Good Luck.

    yes this helps, if new updated charts are added that will be more help

    thx!
    Have a plan and stick to it.

  15. #49530
    aerocom is offline Moderator
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    Quote Originally Posted by turmaz View Post
    yes this helps, if new updated charts are added that will be more help

    thx!
    I posted one last night. Here is another.

    Good Luck.
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