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Thread: Elliott Wave Trading Discussion

  1. #47251
    aerocom is offline Moderator
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    Quote Originally Posted by JimboFX View Post
    Aero, I see it to 1.60 being 61.8% retracement form 1.58xx to 1.63xx and also wave (c) = wave (a). Going much bellow 1.60 would be a stretch in my opinion.
    Thanks Jimbo;

    As you correctly deduced, I used the elliott guidelines. Actually, I have c=a at 1.5996 and may have made a typing error. Based on the lesser wave (a) of c, the target is a few pips lower at 5980. But, there is still the H&S pattern and the guideline is to measure from the neckline which gives the lower boundary of the target area.

    Good Luck.

  2. #47252
    Gray's Avatar
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    CAD/JPY

    CAD/JPY may find some resistance soon. Here is a link to view it better http://ow.ly/i/1iPVY/original
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  3. #47253
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    AUD/JPY

    AUD/JPY showing a similar pattern to CAD/JPY
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  4. #47254
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    EUR/AUD

    Quote Originally Posted by Gray View Post
    EUR/AUD 4hr updated
    Updated from nearly 2 months ago. Flat correction scenario has worked a treat so far
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  5. #47255
    Howdyy is offline Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by fazi View Post
    Hi Vincent,

    lunar 32 (5) - no.5 top is due on average 4-7 days after the fullmoon - if MTD8 bottom is in we shouldn`t look for LTD top until mid jan.

    Patryk
    Looking at your 12 point ITD.

    http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/tradi...ml#post1479150

  6. #47256
    Gray's Avatar
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    EUR/AUD

    Quote Originally Posted by Gray View Post
    Updated from nearly 2 months ago. Flat correction scenario has worked a treat so far
    Here is a look at a shorter term chart for this pair. The move down from the recent high is clearly in three waves. Wave 4 may still develop into a flat or triangle but three waves down is a corrective move. This tells us to look for at least one more high maybe around 1.2900 which is the c=162.8% a area.
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    Last edited by Gray; 12-29-2012 at 07:13 AM.

  7. #47257
    asanav is offline Registered User
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    Gray please lay out your markup on all forex pairs Cross, I like your layout.

  8. #47258
    Gray's Avatar
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    EUR/USD

    Quote Originally Posted by aerocom View Post
    Hi Greg;

    I can't argue with your software count. I am following the same count. But, here is an update on a chart I posted a while back. Historically, we can expect a top and turn in the Eur$ during the first quarter of the year. If this is an A-B-C then the top and turn should not occur until sometime between January 1 and 7. These estimates are base on wave equality. Wave A was 52 days in length; Wave B 60; so, wave C an A equality is January 3, 13. Additionally, 62% retracement of the time of the move down from 10/25 is January 7,13.

    If price is correcting the entire move down which took 447 days then a 62% retracement of time will not occur until April 26.

    Good Luck.
    Quote Originally Posted by aerocom View Post
    Maybe a short term top is in place. The attached chart is just a possibility. In this count a top should be in in the 3226 area and price has exceeded the equality measure. Additionally, if the count is as depicted, it is possible that the 5 up in wave c is complete. Therefore, a short term top could be in place.

    However, looking at charts posted yesterday, the final high is a ways away. If this was truly a wave 5, there should be divergence between waves 3 and waves 5. That is not present here as RSI has risen above the RSI down trend line. In the short term RSI rose with price. But, RSI has not exceeded the previous RSI extreme. On the daily chart a new extreme would be in the 81 area.

    I posted yesterday, the anticipated time for a turn as January 3 to 7. As additional evidence, the average turn in trading days after the next full moon date Dec. 28, is 4 with a standard deviation of 3 trading days. Based on this analysis, price could top and turn any time between January 2 and January 10. Based on time analysis a long term top should not occur until early to mid January, 13.

    Good Luck.
    Two excellent posts from 18-19 December Sir I think most Elliottitions concentrate far to much on price only and don't consider TIME in their analysis, myself included! "When price and time square change is inevitable." - WD Gann
    Early January still looking good .
    Here is one of a number of scenarios I have for EUR/USD. Good Luck
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  9. #47259
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    CAD/JPY

    CAD/JPY has left another shooting star in place on the daily chart...

    However, this one looks a lot better than the last one I noted a few weeks back...

    This shooting star pattern could be the top of this rally....

    But there is still chance for price to rally up above the top of this pattern to create the final top....

    I take note there is a major fibonacci resistance level at 88.67 ...

    We may see the market try to test that level for solid resistance....

    Either way, after that shooting star pattern on the daily chart, the top is in place, or will be very soon....


  10. #47260
    morob is offline Member
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    Hi

    Hello

    I am new to EW

    Could someone help me with count those two charts ?

    Thank You in advance
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  11. #47261
    Gray's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by morob View Post
    Hello

    I am new to EW

    Could someone help me with count those two charts ?

    Thank You in advance
    It is very hard to apply an Elliott wave count when you do not know the chart time frame and cannot see smaller time frames to count minor waves or have any historical data or be able to apply fib. ratio's. What I can tell from both charts is that they are displaying 7 major swings which means those moves are corrective.
    On the chart I have labelled,if in fact we have seen 5 waves down from the high that I have labeled green 1/A, we know from EW rules that 2/B cannot go beyond that high. If it does the count is wrong and we need to try something else. Above that high would be a good place to put your stop if attempting to short the market don't you think. That's the beauty of EW !

    Here is an attempt at counting the first chart. Good Luck
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    Last edited by Gray; 12-30-2012 at 09:41 PM.

  12. #47262
    Dic Tracy is offline Member
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    Check the bottom of the page - homework posting... someone's fooling you, Gray!

    http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...69574&page=318

    Quote Originally Posted by Gray View Post
    It is very hard to apply an Elliott wave count when you do not know the chart time frame and cannot see smaller time frames to count minor waves or have any historical data or be able to apply fib. ratio's. What I can tell from both charts is that they are displaying 7 major swings which means those moves are corrective.
    On the chart I have labelled,if in fact we have seen 5 waves down from the high that I have labeled green 1/A, we know from EW rules that 2/B cannot go beyond that high. If it does the count is wrong and we need to try something else. Above that high would be a good place to put your stop if attempting to short the market don't you think. That's the beauty of EW !

    Here is an attempt at counting the first chart. Good Luck

  13. #47263
    Gray's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dic Tracy View Post
    Check the bottom of the page - homework posting... someone's fooling you, Gray!

    http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...69574&page=318
    I just did someone else's homework....I hate homework!! I guess I don't have to contribute to this forum..DO I...

    The "Teacher" follows me on Twitter....funny that...
    Last edited by Gray; 12-31-2012 at 03:02 AM.

  14. #47264
    morob is offline Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gray View Post
    It is very hard to apply an Elliott wave count when you do not know the chart time frame and cannot see smaller time frames to count minor waves or have any historical data or be able to apply fib. ratio's. What I can tell from both charts is that they are displaying 7 major swings which means those moves are corrective.
    On the chart I have labelled,if in fact we have seen 5 waves down from the high that I have labeled green 1/A, we know from EW rules that 2/B cannot go beyond that high. If it does the count is wrong and we need to try something else. Above that high would be a good place to put your stop if attempting to short the market don't you think. That's the beauty of EW !

    Here is an attempt at counting the first chart. Good Luck
    Thanks for that

  15. #47265
    morob is offline Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dic Tracy View Post
    Check the bottom of the page - homework posting... someone's fooling you, Gray!

    http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...69574&page=318
    Dont worry about this

    If I going to show them his work they will know the real autor

    I dont wont steal his work

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