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Thread: Elliott Wave Trading Discussion

  1. #47206
    aerocom is offline Moderator
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    Quote Originally Posted by fazi View Post
    Hi Vincent,

    Geppy has already confirmed LTD bottom. If EU clears 1.3126 the following MTD count is most probable. IF so - MTD8 bottom may be in place, or MTD7 needs one more push, and MTD8 bottoms out near years end.

    LTD top is more likely with MTD9

    edit: fro EU -IMO a move above 1.3126 confirms MTD bottom

    Patryk
    Patryk;

    We have the same turn points as you but my count is different than yours. Would you be so kind as to post a chart from point 1. I am assuming the white letters are ITD turn points.

    TIA

    Good Luck.

  2. #47207
    aerocom is offline Moderator
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    Here is another perspective on the GBP$. In this scenario, C=A at 6226 and the invalidation point for the count is 1.6254.

    Let me add. I think this will probably complete Wave A of Z with a target above 1.64 and probably 1.6426.

    Good Luck.
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    Last edited by aerocom; 12-14-2012 at 02:09 PM.

  3. #47208
    aerocom is offline Moderator
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    Here is the Eur$ chart. It may have already completed wave A of Z. Price has exceeded the 5th wave principle target of the larger degree but the lesser degree wave 5 does not look complete. Another point of interest, if price does not move up from here, it will mark the 5th time that price has been rejected from this level. The level marks the 38% retracement of the entire move from 1.4939 to the low at 1.2031 and 50% retracement of what I am counting as diagonal that originated at 1.4246 and completed at 1.3281.

    According to Prechter, diagonals usually retrace 66% of the move which would consistent with Kennedy's guideline of a nearly complete retracement.

    Good Luck.
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  4. #47209
    fazi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by aerocom View Post
    Patryk;

    We have the same turn points as you but my count is different than yours. Would you be so kind as to post a chart from point 1. I am assuming the white letters are ITD turn points.

    TIA

    Good Luck.
    Hi,

    White are MTD points - looking at GJ and EU MTD3 could have been veery late (1.63) - then 4-5-6 to the bottom - now 7 top and possibly 8 bottom in place.

    Here are ITDs
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  5. #47210
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gizmo View Post
    Here is an attempt at a count for one more top in the dow. The chart below shows a top that could be in the 13500 range and a possible retest of the purple trendline which is of taken off the October 03,2011 low and the June 30,2012 low. In the attached chart I have labelled a wave 3 complete with 4 being a retest of the thin blue uptrend line and 5 completing as a retest of the longer term purple uptrend line. We could however be done and the top in after todays high with an ABC complete with wave equality having A = 538 pips and C = 563 pips. There is also some divergence on the stochastics I used between yesterdays high and todays closed candle high.

    So far so good but it can still be either way as shown in the chart below for one more high, or this could be the start of the first leg down after the top. Below I have both scenarios. For the up move I show price continuing higher after todays test of the channel with the daily candle closing a few pips above the trendline, and the low coming about 5 pips above the 38.2% retrace of wave 3 of C for a nice wave 4 end target. Wave 1 of this C wave was 331 pips so if wave 5 (green line up) is equal to this then the target would be around 13,447.

    The alterante scenario is in the bold black ABC letters. This scenario shows a top now in having A and C being fairly equal with a small difference of C being 25 pips longer than A. I am starting to lean more toward the bearish side, but until we get a break and close below the short term uptrend line we tested today, I will look for one more high or a retest of the underside of the long term uptrend line from the October 03,2011 low and the June 30,2012 low. This trendline acted as support for some time and price may retest it as resistance one more time. See how it plays out.
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  6. #47211
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    AUD/JPY

    Quote Originally Posted by Gray View Post
    A triangle or flat followed by a little more upside for AUD/JPY ?
    AUD/JPY Updated. We did complete a flat and have still more upside to come
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  7. #47212
    2_bits is offline Member
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    With price divergence on both the daily and weekly timeframes coupled with strong horizontal support at this level, I believe Swissie will rise and form a more complex structure, such as a triangle or flat, before gaining sufficient potential momentum to break the support below.


    Name:  USDCHF Weekly 12-15-2012.jpg
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    Here's a more detailed look at the possible count for a triangle.


    Name:  USDCHF_3HR_FORECAST_12_15_2012.jpg
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  8. #47213
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    CADJPY has been trading in what appears to be a triangle for the past three years. I think it will break to the upside based on the bullish action in the other yen pairs we've had lately. However, longer term it should continue to decline if we are indeed in Cycle Wave 4 as I've indicated in the possible count below.


    Name:  CADJPY WEEKLY 12-15-2012.jpg
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  9. #47214
    aerocom is offline Moderator
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    Quote Originally Posted by aerocom View Post
    Here is another perspective on the GBP$. In this scenario, C=A at 6226 and the invalidation point for the count is 1.6254.

    Let me add. I think this will probably complete Wave A of Z with a target above 1.64 and probably 1.6426.

    Good Luck.
    Here we have 2 equal legs up C being 4pips longer than A. The high probability trade has defined risk and reward near wave 2 of C which will also likely complete the correction in the area of wave B.

    Good Luck.

  10. #47215
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    Quote Originally Posted by 2_bits View Post
    CADJPY has been trading in what appears to be a triangle for the past three years. I think it will break to the upside based on the bullish action in the other yen pairs we've had lately. However, longer term it should continue to decline if we are indeed in Cycle Wave 4 as I've indicated in the possible count below.
    I'm pretty sure CAD/JPY is about to hit a wall by 86.00


    Last edited by brad_1199; 12-16-2012 at 07:44 PM.

  11. #47216
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    CAD/JPY Monthly Chart

    Historical Price Action For CAD/JPY ------->

    And my new preffered long term wave count....

    Looking for a big move down over the next few months...




    Last edited by brad_1199; 12-16-2012 at 07:46 PM.

  12. #47217
    asanav is offline Registered User
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    Someone has other options.
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  13. #47218
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    Quote Originally Posted by brad_1199 View Post
    I'm pretty sure CAD/JPY is about to hit a wall by 86.00
    You may very well be right Brad. After looking around tonight I see that the CADJPY pattern since the 2007 top closely parallels that of the NIKKEI 225. My count below for this index is calling for a sharp correction if not something bigger. One of my counts is obviously wrong. Thanks for responding.

    Attachment 170996

  14. #47219
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    $EURUSD Daily and 4 Hour Elliott Wave Counts

    $EURUSD Daily and 4 Hour Elliott Wave Counts
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  15. #47220
    aerocom is offline Moderator
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    Hi Greg;

    I can't argue with your software count. I am following the same count. But, here is an update on a chart I posted a while back. Historically, we can expect a top and turn in the Eur$ during the first quarter of the year. If this is an A-B-C then the top and turn should not occur until sometime between January 1 and 7. These estimates are base on wave equality. Wave A was 52 days in length; Wave B 60; so, wave C an A equality is January 3, 13. Additionally, 62% retracement of the time of the move down from 10/25 is January 7,13.

    If price is correcting the entire move down which took 447 days then a 62% retracement of time will not occur until April 26.

    Good Luck.
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