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Thread: Elliott Wave Trading Discussion

  1. #45271
    stanchiam is offline Banned
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    Quote Originally Posted by stanchiam View Post
    hmmm....another complex count

    i prefer a clean count, here is mine, less headache for newbies
    KISS...cheers

    ps:back to hiding mode
    as expected and boom
    รูป รูป  

  2. #45272
    2_bits is offline Member
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    All right. I was wrong and Mr. Market spanked me good tonight and temporarily muted my bullish enthusiasm. I will work up a new count and post tomorrow. One question I have to you is what you mean when you say a leading diagonal cannot be internally 3 waves. I had it as a 3-3-3-3-3 wave as shown in the 30 minute chart and I though the wave 2 was an expanded flat, which I thought did not break any rules. Any advice would be appreciated as I've been stuck with about a 50% W/L ratio for about a year now and I'd like to have higher probability counts.

  3. #45273
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    Nzd pattern may be ABCDE. What do you think ? Guys. I want to go for short and still waiting for pull back. This is crazy. 3000 pips in this year.
    Last edited by JoeyLee; 05-06-2012 at 10:09 PM.
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  4. #45274
    stanchiam is offline Banned
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    Quote Originally Posted by 2_bits View Post
    All right. I was wrong and Mr. Market spanked me good tonight and temporarily muted my bullish enthusiasm. I will work up a new count and post tomorrow. One question I have to you is what you mean when you say a leading diagonal cannot be internally 3 waves. I had it as a 3-3-3-3-3 wave as shown in the 30 minute chart and I though the wave 2 was an expanded flat, which I thought did not break any rules. Any advice would be appreciated as I've been stuck with about a 50% W/L ratio for about a year now and I'd like to have higher probability counts.
    oh boy, leading diagonal is internally 5-3-5-3-5, ending diagonal is 3-3-3-3-3
    can you refer to the book that teach u leading diagonal can be internally 3 waves?? I want to know which book say that
    you want to have a better W/L ratio using ew, then my advise is get your basic foundation solid first.
    Last edited by stanchiam; 05-06-2012 at 10:36 PM.

  5. #45275
    aerocom is offline Moderator
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    Quote Originally Posted by JoeyLee View Post
    Nzd pattern may be ABCDE. What do you think ? Guys. I want to go for short and still waiting for pull back. This is crazy. 3000 pips in this year.
    It could be. But, if you examine that closely, you will see a potential H&S pattern that is indicating a minimum move of 1575p when it breaks.

    Good Luck.

  6. #45276
    2_bits is offline Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by stanchiam View Post
    oh boy, leading diagonal is internally 5-3-5-3-5, ending diagonal is 3-3-3-3-3
    can you refer to the book that teach u leading diagonal can be internally 3 waves?? I want to know which book say that
    you want to have a better W/L ratio using ew, then my advise is get your basic foundation solid first.
    Here we go. I had to go up into my attic to find my copy as I haven't referred to it in a long time. From page 40 of the Elliott Wave Principle by Frost and Prechter,

    "Leading Diagonal

    It has recently come to light that a diagonal occasionally appears in the wave 1 position of impulses and in the wave A position of zigzags. In the few examples we have, the subdivisions appear to be the same: 3-3-3-3-3, althought in two cases, they can be labeled 5-3-5-3-5, so the jury is out on a strict defintion...."

    Elsewhere in the book it states that ending diagonals have to be 3-3-3-3-3 waves, although in the real world I've seen what appeared to me to be 5-3-5-3-5 ending diagonals too.

    Anyway, it's clear now that it was not a leading diagonal.

  7. #45277
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    Quote Originally Posted by aerocom View Post
    It could be. But, if you examine that closely, you will see a potential H&S pattern that is indicating a minimum move of 1575p when it breaks.

    Good Luck.

    Can you show me your long term count ? It is seldom to have this type of condition expanding diagonal but i suspected it when the wave D moved away from trend line. Past few years back it has the possibility of moving 3000 pips below in a year. Expanding diagonal on for moving upward but in this case is weird. Need more confirmation from you all. Thanks.

  8. #45278
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    Quote Originally Posted by aerocom View Post
    I think what you mean is Jay's count has been invalidated because the price of wave e cannot extend beyond the price of wave c.

    Good Luck.
    no - when I wrote this price was ok yet, but rsi broken triangle

    I see many hard bears here. I will be this kind of bear too, but there are few things:

    1) look on peak on oil - for me this is 3 waves. This is not a top - looks like flat from top.



    2) look on copper. How many swing do you see from low ? I see 5 - we need 7



    3) I see 1,7 area on GBPUSD - there is no triangle on weekly any more. Rsi not confirming this - rsi for point E of this triangle is higher than rsi for point C.

    your charts about usdchf - we corrected less than 23% of all move. It can be, but it's ugly for me. I see new low after bigger correction - even flat with new top.

  9. #45279
    aerocom is offline Moderator
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    Quote Originally Posted by szaman1977 View Post
    no - when I wrote this price was ok yet, but rsi broken triangle

    I see many hard bears here. I will be this kind of bear too, but there are few things:

    1) look on peak on oil - for me this is 3 waves. This is not a top - looks like flat from top.



    2) look on copper. How many swing do you see from low ? I see 5 - we need 7



    3) I see 1,7 area on GBPUSD - there is no triangle on weekly any more. Rsi not confirming this - rsi for point E of this triangle is higher than rsi for point C.

    your charts about usdchf - we corrected less than 23% of all move. It can be, but it's ugly for me. I see new low after bigger correction - even flat with new top.
    You need to check your oil chart. Oil just completed a 3 wave down move followed by a 3 wave up move. A flat is under way in wave c that should carry to the 69 area.

    That is not a 5 wave up move as you have it labeled. it is a 5-3-5. Your 1 is A; your 2 is B and 3 is C; 4 is b then A-B and a 5 wave wave C. All correcting the previous 5 wave down move that I would label as 1.

    There is no triangle pattern in the RSI. But, price is what you should be watching for patterns. I only use indicators for confirmation. The GBP$ is in what I am cautiously calling wave c of D of a triangle and possibly wave 1. I maintain that it should carry to the 1.4800 area at a minimum. The reason why I am cautious is because I think the cycle low should not come until 2017.

    PM me your email address.

    Good Luck.

  10. #45280
    aerocom is offline Moderator
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    Quote Originally Posted by JoeyLee View Post
    Can you show me your long term count ? It is seldom to have this type of condition expanding diagonal but i suspected it when the wave D moved away from trend line. Past few years back it has the possibility of moving 3000 pips below in a year. Expanding diagonal on for moving upward but in this case is weird. Need more confirmation from you all. Thanks.
    I don't have a long term count. I will do one tomorrow for you. Until then, look at Ahmeds. He posts here as TraderFringez and posted today his kiwi count. I started to short the kiwi but, decided to wait until the H&S pattern neckline broke. Still waiting.

    Good Luck.

  11. #45281
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    At first I could not believe it that was the end. I thought that was expanding diagonal. It is quite difficult to count in smaller time frame. Thus I use daily chart and see the bear sign. Check with the portion that i circle. It supports each action of the price.

  12. #45282
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    [QUOTE=aerocom;1136882]You need to check your oil chart. Oil just completed a 3 wave down move followed by a 3 wave up move. A flat is under way in wave c that should carry to the 69 area.

    That is not a 5 wave up move as you have it labeled. it is a 5-3-5. Your 1 is A; your 2 is B and 3 is C; 4 is b then A-B and a 5 wave wave C. All correcting the previous 5 wave down move that I would label as 1.

    QUOTE]

    About oil - with chart everthing is ok. look on tf and date. it's h1 until middle of march. I want to show only that 110 on oil it's not a top.

    and about 5 waves - you mean on copper.
    I wrote about swings - not waves . min for corrections there is 7 swings. I expect one more leg up.

    on spx I expect also more high after bigger correction. where this correction can end ? maybe 1250 ? I see gap on spx future in this area.

    eurusd ? few possibililies
    lower - but without new low and 3700 area
    lower - with new low 2400-2200 area and then 3700 (which is similar with your cable).
    look on usdx - for now we have 5 swings. we can read it as LD. If we will make new top now it can be flat after LD ... or WXY (not LD). In both case I expect new high.

  13. #45283
    aerocom is offline Moderator
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    Quote Originally Posted by JoeyLee View Post
    At first I could not believe it that was the end. I thought that was expanding diagonal. It is quite difficult to count in smaller time frame. Thus I use daily chart and see the bear sign. Check with the portion that i circle. It supports each action of the price.
    Here is what I am watching. You will see perfect symmetry in both price and RSI.

    Good Luck.
    รูปขนาดเล็ก รูปขนาดเล็ก Elliott Wave Trading Discussion-nzdusd-05-07-12.jpg  


  14. #45284
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    Quote Originally Posted by aerocom View Post
    Here is what I am watching. You will see perfect symmetry in both price and RSI.

    Good Luck.
    Yeah that's great. I am waiting for your long term count.

  15. #45285
    tomek0111 is offline Member
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    eur/usd

    fourth wave in support of
    รูปขนาดเล็ก รูปขนาดเล็ก Elliott Wave Trading Discussion-eurusdh12.jpg  

    Elliott Wave Trading Discussion-eurusddaily.jpg  

    Last edited by tomek0111; 05-07-2012 at 02:47 AM.

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