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Thread: Elliott Wave Trading Discussion

  1. #45256
    zmissler is offline Registered User
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    Patryck,

    The sltd in gbp fits with 13 as a low. Eur inverts for extension in sltd 2...why not?

    Z

  2. #45257
    fazi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by zmissler View Post
    Patryck,

    The sltd in gbp fits with 13 as a low. Eur inverts for extension in sltd 2...why not?

    Z
    Hi zmissler,

    eurgbp monthly chart - so that would imply important bottom here (C wave of the triangleto form?) - GBP slowly dropping and the EU slowly rising? - possible. The problem is why would this happen?

    Patryk
    รูปขนาดเล็ก รูปขนาดเล็ก Elliott Wave Trading Discussion-eur-gbp-daily.jpg  


  3. #45258
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    Quote Originally Posted by fazi View Post
    Hi Jay,

    Timewise this count is hardly possible. Cable has max 5-10 days to finnish its up move (SLTD top) - in fact the top may be in place (confirmation <1.6074). Since Cable will most likely be dragged down by the EU, this one one looks like even better short.

    from dialyfx real time news:

    GREEK PASOK HEAD VENIZELOS: May 6 elections determine fate of country and will judge if Greece stays in Euro.
    4 May 19:18:26

    edit: I`m not sure which elections are riskier - French or Greek?
    edit2: there are also regional elections in Germany -tripple whammy over the weekend

    Next week could be really wild.

    Patryk
    Hi Patryk. Regardless, I will be taking a long with a 1.40 target in the coming days. The sentiment is still far too bearish for the Euro. Hope all is well. Jay
    Last edited by apipintime; 05-04-2012 at 03:37 PM.

  4. #45259
    Franosh's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by fazi View Post
    Hi zmissler,

    eurgbp monthly chart - so that would imply important bottom here (C wave of the triangleto form?) - GBP slowly dropping and the EU slowly rising? - possible. The problem is why would this happen?

    Patryk
    Hi, Patryk

    Going by the original Delta solution for cable futures, Cable's low in April might have put in a low of MTD1 and LTD13. The significant rise seems fit well into the nature of the end/beginning of a new cycle for rotation. By that account, MTD2 is in mid-June.

    Best

    F

  5. #45260
    fazi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Franosh View Post
    Hi, Patryk

    Going by the original Delta solution for cable futures, Cable's low in April might have put in a low of MTD1 and LTD13. The significant rise seems fit well into the nature of the end/beginning of a new cycle for rotation. By that account, MTD2 is in mid-June.

    Best

    F

    I trust rotation I`m using, and it rarely happens we have such a clear sittuation as now.

    Patryk

  6. #45261
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    This nasty chf really makes me puzzle. I have to count over and over again from monthly to daily. Some more i have to refer to other people count. It is a steady long term investment type. 20000 pips in the future for wave 4.

    Aud is going to form ABC. Small range target.

    I believe that it is the end at this stage for JPY.
    Last edited by JoeyLee; 05-06-2012 at 01:17 AM.

  7. #45262
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    Boom

    Competent Trades: Weekend Elliott wave Update

    This is a long one, so grab a cup of coffee.

    Unfortunately I wont be able to post as often this week, I'm catching up on some reading. Very interesting books regarding forecasting.

  8. #45263
    aerocom is offline Moderator
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    Quote Originally Posted by Traderfringez View Post
    Competent Trades: Weekend Elliott wave Update

    This is a long one, so grab a cup of coffee.

    Unfortunately I wont be able to post as often this week, I'm catching up on some reading. Very interesting books regarding forecasting.
    Interesting analysis here. As always, very thorough. Thanks.

    Good Luck.

  9. #45264
    aerocom is offline Moderator
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    Here is my latest view on the USDJPY. If the pair is in a wave 4 decline, price should terminate between .6863 and .6550.

    I have an alternate view which has the current move in a wave 2 decline that if it is accurate, will end near .7800. In this view, wave 3 is 1.414% of wave 1 and the entire move is 2% of wave 1. In my studies, I find these ratios more associative with an "a:c" corrective relationship therefore, my primary count.

    Caution is advised!!

    Good Luck.
    รูปขนาดเล็ก รูปขนาดเล็ก Elliott Wave Trading Discussion-usdjpy-05-05-12.jpg  


  10. #45265
    aerocom is offline Moderator
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    Quote Originally Posted by JoeyLee View Post
    This nasty chf really makes me puzzle. I have to count over and over again from monthly to daily. Some more i have to refer to other people count. It is a steady long term investment type. 20000 pips in the future for wave 4.

    Aud is going to form ABC. Small range target.

    I believe that it is the end at this stage for JPY.
    There is no puzzle for the usdchf. The pair has completed a diagonal that started in 1970. The 5th wave terminated just shy of the .62(.6195) ratio of the price of wave 3 with a throw over. Wave 2 of the diagonal is in the area of 2.9301.

    Wave 2 of the move up is complete with a triangle as the 3rd move in a tripple 3. The count posted on Thursday is valid. According to Balen, this is acceptable and the thrust should beyond a normal thrust. Even if it is a B wave, price should exceed 1.1300.

    Good Luck.

  11. #45266
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    Another Possibility

    Quote Originally Posted by aerocom View Post
    There is no puzzle for the usdchf. The pair has completed a diagonal that started in 1970. The 5th wave terminated just shy of the .62(.6195) ratio of the price of wave 3 with a throw over. Wave 2 of the diagonal is in the area of 2.9301.

    Wave 2 of the move up is complete with a triangle as the 3rd move in a tripple 3. The count posted on Thursday is valid. According to Balen, this is acceptable and the thrust should beyond a normal thrust. Even if it is a B wave, price should exceed 1.1300.

    Good Luck.
    Here is another potential short term count for Swissie, which would jive with the Euro count i posted a few days ago. Swissie could be in the final stages of completing wave e of a B wave triangle, which would see it weaken to around the 86 level before resumption of the uptrend.
    รูปขนาดเล็ก รูปขนาดเล็ก Elliott Wave Trading Discussion-swissie-d-050612.jpg  


  12. #45267
    aerocom is offline Moderator
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    Quote Originally Posted by apipintime View Post
    Here is another potential short term count for Swissie, which would jive with the Euro count i posted a few days ago. Swissie could be in the final stages of completing wave e of a B wave triangle, which would see it weaken to around the 86 level before resumption of the uptrend.
    In my view what is wrong with this count is that both wave 3 and 5 would have to be extended. Since wave 3 is extended, it is probable that wave 5 would be equal to 1. In my alt count (red) count wave 5 is 105% of wave 1. The rest is an irregular correction; another indication of a strong market.

    I could be wrong on my count. However, in my view, too many conditions line up. But, in the end the price will let us know.

    Good Luck.

  13. #45268
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    Quote Originally Posted by apipintime View Post
    Here is another potential short term count for Swissie, which would jive with the Euro count i posted a few days ago. Swissie could be in the final stages of completing wave e of a B wave triangle, which would see it weaken to around the 86 level before resumption of the uptrend.
    there is no triangle any more
    rsi negated in h4 and daily

  14. #45269
    aerocom is offline Moderator
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    Quote Originally Posted by szaman1977 View Post
    there is no triangle any more
    rsi negated in h4 and daily
    I think what you mean is Jay's count has been invalidated because the price of wave e cannot extend beyond the price of wave c.

    Good Luck.

  15. #45270
    stanchiam is offline Banned
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    Quote Originally Posted by 2_bits View Post
    Hey guys. I haven't posted in a while because not much has changed with my count. What has changed is that I am no longer just mildly bullish. I am now wildly bullish for the next year at least. I think the EURO is headed back up to the 1.50 level and beyond before any big crash occurs; it could even make new all time highs! I'm buying some for the ride up right now. Very good R/R with an obvious stop loss point. Good luck bears.

    Quote Originally Posted by stanchiam View Post
    nice 5 wave down on the white wave 2, hmm... although still valid, but later we shall find out
    good luck bulls perhaps?

    "think the EURO is headed back up to the 1.50 level "
    wow
    Quote Originally Posted by stanchiam View Post
    maybe you can help to explain why u are sure it is ending diagonal (I am)
    there is someone who think this is a leading diagonal and looking at it as wave 1 with a projected target of 1.5 (WOW!!)

    "Perhaps the opportunity is a good one that should not be missed." quoted from Summerset
    "I'm buying some for the ride up right now. Very good R/R with an obvious stop loss point. Good luck bears. " quoted from 2 bits
    The reason why i say there is always a bullish and bearish count/view at the same time, although only one is correct.....lol

    i like honey bears cause they serve me honey juice and pepper steak
    back to honey bear sleep
    Quote Originally Posted by 2_bits View Post
    I'm always up for a challenge, except my wife wants me to come to bed in 15 minutes so here's my best shot.


    Quote Originally Posted by stanchiam View Post
    nice try, trying to turn ending diagonal into leading diagonal, turn those internal count into 5 waves and u will be right
    that is why most using ew fail badly and think ew sucks, this is one example, anyway, good post.
    Cheers

    ps: i am not saying it cannot turn bullish, it can still mutate, but that is another topic
    Summary: learning only the pattern alone is not enough, internal count plays an important role, seeing a diagonal and straight away conclude it is leading diagonal, then you will miss a great move.
    Even though i repeatedly told u it is internally 3 waves but u still insist it is a leading diagonal.
    A full vase cannot accept input, empty some out, be humble, learn from the books , that is how u become stronger.
    Last edited by stanchiam; 05-06-2012 at 08:09 PM.

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