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04-24-2012, 02:09 PM #45121
Euro - B wave triangle
B wave triangular consolidation continues. We look to be in the midst of wave (d) of B. Expecting a move up soon.
04-24-2012, 09:29 PM #45122
Hi Todd, Great observations. Gold may lead the metals up from here. Here's the way I have counted the correction.
Originally Posted by Todd Gordon
04-25-2012, 06:17 AM #45123
Thanks aerocom for the details, I will do some numbers next week. By the way, it seems that my 1.6166 has reported some valuable pips to someone, ironically not me. That was an easy number as it's 61.8 of wave d and clear resistance level of the last top on daily. Despite the 80 pips down, I'm not totally convinced of wave e complete, what do you think boys and girls?
Originally Posted by xtura
04-25-2012, 07:47 AM #45124
Market is moving up. S&P is going to form another Z if you obeserve it properly. Last week GBP already showed the strong bullish sign of moving up as well as other pairs. This is beginning only. It will reach 1.66.
04-25-2012, 11:27 AM #45125
S&P 500 H4 25 April 2012
I suspected last week ago that it would go up. yupee
04-25-2012, 11:42 AM #45126
04-25-2012, 11:52 AM #45127
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04-25-2012, 03:07 PM #45128
The market is currently doing an ascending triangle, to take out the 50% fib of the fall that occurred during the credit bust of summer 2008. The current ascending triangle alternates with a similar situation back in March 1999,
when the market failed and formed an ending diagonal during the George Sorros affair. This time around, the current ascending triangle not only runs in alternation as a pattern with the pervious “Sorros” ending diagonal,
but further alternates with the broadening top (blow out) that formed with the credit bust.
The market is driven by fundamentals. It seems that sooner than later the BOE will be cornered into raising interest rates to combat stagflation or inflation, much before the FED has any need to. This will make the Sterling a higher yield currency via the Dollar. Remember, that already - the FED has played its hand on this matter by pledging to hold near zero rates unto 2014. Further more the amount of quantitative easing that the BOE is engaged in dwindles in magnitude, when compared to what the FED has guaranteed to unleash to keep the US recovery on track.
These two fundamental premises are keeping the Sterling ticking higher against the Dollar. Whichever of them gets announced first, will see break out of the ascending triangle, in a Wave-3 spike. It therefore becomes prudent to trade the market’s coming test of the 50% fib resistance zone into <1.6750 into 1.720> levels. This is a good 600 – 1000 pts from current levels, and is analyzed on the Daily frame, Chart -2. Note that a 1-4 line (labeled in blue) appears to be holding on the Monthly chart and gives the appearance of a continued market advance. On the shown Monthly chart-1 below, The principle count is shown in Black, & the Alternate count in red.
A segregation of the waves labeled (b) - (1) & (2) on the monthly chart is shown on the Daily chart-2. The primary count is shown in black, and should continue in blue. Where as specific bearish fundamentals affecting the British economy would cause a protraction in Wave-II, to form a complex H&S at “C” = the alternate count showing in Red. The region covered by the ascending triangle is shaded in grey. A pitchfork is thrown to cover a bullish translated amplitude for Wave-I, and confirms that the market could easily run up to 1.6750 values, and still be in the lower bearish section of the fork. This means that we could easily see spikes into 1.6700 levels, and yet dip again to 1.60 or even 1.5365 levels, cause the market could be still doing Waves-b & c of II.
On Chart-3, a detailed segregation of the current bull drive from bottom “C” is shown. This is the primary count, to trade. Momentum wise it shows that the market is doing iii of (3). The shown 1-4 line on Chart-3 should not be broken, (if this count is correct). And trade wise, longs can be taken at current levels on successive short term momentum signals, in a recurring manner to see targets of 6280 & 6380, while keeping stops below the 1-4 datum shown ~ (1.6030.).
04-25-2012, 09:30 PM #45129
I agree with your count. If I had done my homework, I would have seen it in time to warn. There were several warning signs. On my chart you see a horizontal line at 1.0052. It should be 1.0051 and that in addition to the top of wave 4 is the bottom of the triangle at b.
Originally Posted by xtura
The ratios would have also let us know. Wave 3 is exactly 2 times wave 1 and wave 4 retraced 25% of wave 3 in a tripple. Now, I think $cad is in a wave 5, with wave i of 5 and i-ii of 3 of 5 complete. wave 3 is near if not, completed. Should not go below 9804 in my scheme.
For the entire wave 5, I am using 2 principles. One is the 5th wave principle, where the entire length of wave 5 is .618 of wave 1-3. In this case, price should not extend below .9756. Then we have maximum retracement in the contracting rhythmic ratio of a square which is .707 at .9772. The line extended from the top of the triangle comes in at about 9775.
Therefore my hypothesis has the $cad in a wave 5 that will complete in the area of 9775 to 9756. A move below 9756 would likely mean that the $cad is in a "c" possibly of wave 2 down. In this case 1 is the operative ratio as wave 2 cannot be longer than wave 1.
In any event, I think we will know on or before the first of the month.
04-25-2012, 10:02 PM #45130
NZDUSD 3H COUNT
Hello my brothers. If you are leaning bearish, this one might offer you a good setup. Personally I'd wait for some bullish impulsive action to get long either from here or lower. But if you're nimble this could be a juicy short. Enjoy!
04-26-2012, 03:24 AM #45131
Hii Mr. 2_Bit. Can you show the weekly count ? I am confused with this NZD. Thank You.
Originally Posted by 2_bits
04-26-2012, 08:29 AM #45132
Yesterday UK was declared technically in recession. In the Bernanke style this would need more money printing AKA QE. In Merkel Style more austerity. I don't have any idea What's the BOE style. Do you think that raising interest rates will do the trick?
Originally Posted by Summerset
Inflation was always misunderstood as related to growth. But this is not always true, as commodities tend to inflate not only in speculative fashion but also in scarcity context like in energy or bad harvests like in corn.
IMHO Raising interest rates in this context will create an artificial sensation that everything it's ok, maintaining purchasing power but debilitating GDP.
But hell!, Trying to forecast what BOE, BOJ, FED or BCE is going to do is as difficult as counting waves, in-line with many different ideological approaches to economy.
04-26-2012, 08:55 AM #45133
Forget fundamentals. I never look at them. I don't even know when economic releases are scheduled. I couldn't really care less. Wave counts should not be influenced by fundamentals or created on the back of a fundamental view. Wave counts should be measurable across all fractals with common targets across wave degrees and based on what happens to price.
Originally Posted by xtura
04-26-2012, 11:30 AM #45134
Most people do not agree that on the top was wave 4. I short the JPY last week friday. My emotion plus elliot wave tells me that this is the way. What do you think, Guys ? NZDUSD is not a good pair. Ignore it. Nearly flat.
04-26-2012, 11:55 AM #45135
Originally Posted by JoeyLee
Selling it when above the weekly kumo cloud (flat top)??? Bad idea. kijun sen (red line , 50%) will most likely limit the decline - it is actually a great buy. This night Japaneese CTRL+Ps are supposed to add some 10T new yens.
There could be a range above the kumo for some months, but when yen starts the move it moves.
edit: the shortest kumo breakout in the recent memory was 74 weeks long.
Last edited by fazi; 04-26-2012 at 12:01 PM.