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Thread: Elliott Wave Trading Discussion

  1. #44926
    aerocom is offline Moderator
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    Here is my call on the usdjpy. It is a tale of 2 counts. The primary count has the pair in a w-x-y-x-z or the afore warned tripple correction that should end above .8042. The secondary count in red has the pair in wave c from a b wave triangle that has a minimum expectation of .8079.

    Since the pair is in an ED, the pair should reverse before .8000 is reached and likely between .8042 and .8079. Trading below .8064 will invalidate the Ed.

    Good Luck.
    รูปขนาดเล็ก รูปขนาดเล็ก Elliott Wave Trading Discussion-usdjpy-04-10-12.jpg  

    Last edited by aerocom; 04-10-2012 at 12:57 PM.

  2. #44927
    aerocom is offline Moderator
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    Quote Originally Posted by aerocom View Post
    Here is my call on the usdjpy. It is a tale of 2 counts. The primary count has the pair in a w-x-y-x-z or the afore warned tripple correction that should end above .8042. The secondary count in red has the pair in wave c from a b wave triangle that has a minimum expectation of .8079.

    Since the pair is in an ED, the pair should reverse before .8000 is reached and likely between .8042 and .8079. Trading below .8064 will invalidate the Ed.

    Good Luck.
    The ED appears to be the valid call. Price has crossed the lower line up. There is good potential here with both bull flag and Cup and handle potential with upside targets in the 8800 to 9100 area.

    Good Luck.

  3. #44928
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    I normally put my U/J charts in the U/J thread. Old charts and notes are all there.

    I have and still do view this as a 4th wave triangle.
    Big chart:
    http://www.tafool.com/Charts/usdjpy041012.png
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    Charts are never wrong, but the chart reader often is.

  4. #44929
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    USDJPY H4 - 11 April 2012

    Sorry. My counting is wrong. I forgot the rule. Too many trades. It is the end. Can I just deleted this silly page ? Thanks a lot. Mr Ahmad and Mr. Aerocom
    Last edited by JoeyLee; 04-11-2012 at 01:39 AM.

  5. #44930
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    USDJPY

    I still do not feel allright with this pair although the bear count is over because especially when counting to the last subminuette wave, it is going to move away 100 or 50 pips like what i counted in EURUSD unless it is not the right count. The 4 hour movement is so weak. I still need confirmation for the price to break above last week open. Meanwhile I trade other pairs. EURUSD is good moving upward 100 pips. yupee

  6. #44931
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    GBP/USD update



    It seems likely that the correction hasn't terminated and this is unfolding into a flat correctional pattern to the upside before selling off into a third wave down. This has become my preffered count due to the depth of the retracement witnessed yesterday, The first count still didnt get invalidated which seems somewhat less probable but still valid, it seems less probable due to the fact that we broke the 0-2 trendline which usually caps all of the wave 3 price action, hence it seems logical to assume that the correction still hasnt completed. I'd like to stress however that a flat correctional pattern has even more bearish implications that a zigzag hence we have reason to believe that the third wave to come will be exceptional and extrememly profitable. All stops must be positioned above the April high. What seems odd however is the impulsive 'look' of the wave b decline in the pattern above.


    Regards,

    Ahmed Farghaly



    P.S we also could be forming a wave B triangle (least likely scenerio)

    Competent Trades
    Last edited by Traderfringez; 04-11-2012 at 04:01 AM.

  7. #44932
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    AUDUSD update



    The 'potential' key reversal day pattern has been confirmed as of yesterday's close, We had an outside candle and the candle closed less than 40% of its range measured from the low, as discussed yesterday this has very bearish implications, Another thing I'd like to note is the reverse 1-2-3 candle pattern visible on the chart above (a reverse 1-2-3 is when the range of the 4th candle (setup candle) engulfs the previous 3 candles.) a trade should be triggered at a close bellow the high/low of the setup candle, personally I would pass on the trade if it signals a long due to the elliott wave count, accelerating momentum and the bearish key reversal day witnessed yesterday.

    Regards,
    Ahmed Farghaly

    Competent Trades
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  8. #44933
    stanchiam is offline Banned
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    Quote Originally Posted by stanchiam View Post
    spx, a possible development on risk
    now

    lets see further accelerated drop once it close below that line
    รูป รูป  

  9. #44934
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    GBPUSD & EURUSD

    Switch on to 1 minute chart. Interesting to count whether it is going to fail or not.

  10. #44935
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    my short term gbp count

    Trader Blog: GbpUsd 11 Apr

  11. #44936
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    Quote Originally Posted by TAfool View Post
    ...I have and still do view this as a 4th wave triangle.
    Big chart:
    http://www.tafool.com/Charts/usdjpy041012.png
    Same here TAfool. Here is a chart I posted a month ago with potential topping. Wave 5 of C of bigger IV came right at 61.8 extention of 0-3 wave. Also touching the upper line of 2-4 wave channel. And finally the weekly chart that I think most people forget to look at - there is a resistance line right where it turned and as long as USDJPY is bellow that there is no reason to think that the pair made a turn from its downtrend.

    Before


    After
    รูปขนาดเล็ก รูปขนาดเล็ก Elliott Wave Trading Discussion-yen-4-11.jpg  

    Elliott Wave Trading Discussion-yen-4-11w.jpg  

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  12. #44937
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    Quote Originally Posted by JimboFX View Post
    Same here TAfool. Here is a chart I posted a month ago with potential topping. Wave 5 of C of bigger IV came right at 61.8 extention of 0-3 wave. Also touching the upper line of 2-4 wave channel. And finally the weekly chart that I think most people forget to look at - there is a resistance line right where it turned and as long as USDJPY is bellow that there is no reason to think that the pair made a turn from its downtrend.

    Before


    After
    Yeah. That is the way. The rhythm what I found earlier was totally different to bull count but I cannot explain why. Thank You Mr. Jimbo.

  13. #44938
    aerocom is offline Moderator
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    Quote Originally Posted by JoeyLee View Post
    Yeah. That is the way. The rhythm what I found earlier was totally different to bull count but I cannot explain why. Thank You Mr. Jimbo.
    Not so! There is rhythm in the movement that is conducive with a bullish count. Wave 3 is a movement in relation to wave 1 that is a rhythmic ratio of the Golden Mean. Wave 4 is within 2p of the contracting geometric ratio of .447.

    In Elliott, channeling is important. If you draw a line along the wave 1 beginning and the wave 2 terminus, (wave III and b in the chart above) and draw a parallel line off the top of wave 1 that is parallel to the initial line, you will see that wave 4 is within pips of the line and can decline to the rhythmic contracting ratio of the Golden mean of .486 which would indicate a price of .8020. So altogether now. "THE YEN HAS RHYTHM!"

    Finally, if you draw a 2-4 trend line, you will see that price is bouncing up along that line already. Because of the ratios stated above, it could still come through but, only slightly before it dips back into the area of wave 1 which would validate a bear count.

    However, if the rhythmic movements remain, likely wave 5 targets based on the current low are 5=1 and 5 is equal the inverse of .486 of 3 (.514 of 3). In any event, unless there is an extension wave 5 should reach at least 8452.

    Good Luck.
    Last edited by aerocom; 04-11-2012 at 11:36 PM.

  14. #44939
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    Elliot wave has a very big weakness that I found out last year on S&P 500. I face a lot of overcount and less count problems from those Pro. Thus I added something to Elliot wave principle to make a correct analysis. Wave can be truncated anytime that it is totally not follow to the elliot principle !!

  15. #44940
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    GBP



    it seems evident that the correction subdivided into a flat as anticipated earliar, Notice how the 5th wave of the C wave is struggling to move higher which is nicely reflected on the MACD. I'd suggest going short at a close bellow the monthly central pivot at 1.5885

    Regards,
    Ahmed Farghaly

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