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01-29-2012, 10:34 AM #44341
eu daily count, all pointing to lower move to complete count
01-29-2012, 10:48 AM #44342
us dollar index (monthly) pointing towards 95 to complete wave count
so in the next couple of months or years, i expect us dollar to be significantly stronger
as this is a monthly chart, dont expect an update soon
01-29-2012, 11:03 AM #44343
usd index daily chart
preferred count is for a continuation of usd strengthening to complete wave C towards 95 target
as there is yet to be a clear w2 n w4 alternation, i prefer the red count (12,12,i ii) and a massive move upwards for w2 of C to be in progress soon
Last edited by stanchiam; 01-29-2012 at 11:08 AM.
01-29-2012, 02:53 PM #44344
Originally Posted by stanchiam
great work by you I have been following your posts. I am not an EW expert but I am beginning to have a closer look at Harmonic EW by Ian who is here in forums under the name FX-forecaster.com I am developing a trading methodology called CD waves which I think will simplify things a lot. According to it I think your alternate AU count indicating that the rally is over and time for a dive is at hand is the correct one. Furthermore I entirely agree with your expectation on the US Index. A massive rally will soon unveil itself so all those who think the USDCAD will shift back to a bear trend will be proved wrong.
01-29-2012, 05:55 PM #44345
01-29-2012, 07:51 PM #44346
Eurodollar Short Term Wave Segregation
Though a bit late - Happy New Year to Everyone.
A short term momentum segregation for Eurodollar is shown below, according to which, the probable move this week & next should be a retraction to 3180-70 followed by short term impulses up to 3417- 35 max
01-30-2012, 03:30 AM #44347
Originally Posted by Nature Boy
here is a possible au count
01-30-2012, 04:49 AM #44348
Few possibilities. Hard week.
01-30-2012, 01:02 PM #44349
I don't know when you posted this but, I agree with you. I am about half way your book and have one question that is major. How do you know when you are dealing with a 3 wave zig-zag corrective move?
Originally Posted by FX-Forecaster.com
01-30-2012, 03:46 PM #44350
Last edited by tomek0111; 01-30-2012 at 03:59 PM.
01-30-2012, 03:47 PM #44351
why this version ?
because it seems that GBPUSD do E-wave of the triangle now (5 waves from bottom)
Last edited by szaman1977; 01-30-2012 at 03:55 PM.
01-30-2012, 03:53 PM #44352
Ahhh! Good question! Yes, life with 3-wave moves everywhere does complicate things and can create issues particularly in noisy markets. The basic differentiator is the ratios and the larger wave degrees. With HEW, in many cases, it is possible to estimate where a wave can/should reach to achieve the targets of the higher structure (as long as you have it right of course!)
Originally Posted by aerocom
Take two examples:
In the book I called the DOW up to around 12,322-12,792 in Wave (iii) (from the 2009 low). This was an estimate based on the fact that there would then be a deep Wave (iv) of at least 50% (because Wave (ii) was very shallow) and therefore it need be at a level where normal Wave (v) projections would reach close to the 14K high.
The example earlier of EURUSD moving to 1.3247-62 came from exactly the same thing. The target for this rally will be the span of the last Wave (b), the high at 1.3548. So as a rough guide I'd expect the Wave -v- to reach (probably) between 1.3450-1.3548. Therefore I had to look for a Wave -iii- target that, after a Wave -iv- would allow Wave -v- to reach that area. 1.3262 is a 298.4% projection...
So, once you have your structure sorted out you then follow progression the lower degree. If the first 3-wave move (i.e. Wave -i-) is very small requiring a massive 560%+ projection to reach reasonable target areas for Wave -iii- then something's wrong and it may well be corrective.
The ratios guide as well. While some ratios for impulsive projections can overlap with corrective (at the higher end of the scale 176.4%+) in general Wave -c- projections are really quite different to impulsive. Another guide is alternation which has much stronger influence in the Harmonic structure. Invariably the sum of Wave (ii) and Wave (iv) ratios will come to between 80%-100%, but can get up to 120%. That's a guideline and not a rule and there are occasions that it doesn't happen (and screws me up!) However, overall there are quite a few techniques to help you judge when a 3-wave move is corrective or impulsive...
Last edited by FX-Forecaster.com; 01-30-2012 at 03:58 PM.
Reason: corrected ratio
01-30-2012, 04:23 PM #44353
Ok. I am at the ratio section. I picked up on the moves going into the span of wave b. It's a little frustrating but, I think your method helps explain some things like why the inverted flat in the aud/usd today and where to expect it to terminate.
01-30-2012, 08:08 PM #44354
Hope it helps... The obstacle for Elliotticians is shifting perception and to see the Harmonic Structure. It takes a little while so don't give up quickly. THE key requirement is to measure and measure and measure. It's a bit tedious at first but as you get used to how alternation really works you'll begin to see how logical it is and scan a move and get a good idea of the likely count. There's no doubt that at times it gets very confusing - but that comes with traditional EW - but the Harmonic Structure gives more err... structure!
Originally Posted by aerocom
01-30-2012, 10:00 PM #44355
eg below 0.82 next stop
wave e must hold else very bullish if break above
Last edited by stanchiam; 01-30-2012 at 10:04 PM.
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