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12-30-2011, 09:06 PM #44146
USD/CAD Short Trade
.9831 is a long term fibonacci support line of particular interest for me....
Originally Posted by diver
I derived that number by looking at long term fibonacci extension lines from the monthly chart (Where I always Start)
Rewind back to 2002 and USD/CAD was trading up near the 1.6000 handle before carving out a multi-year top and dropping like a rock until 2007 where the market created a bottom down by .9000 ...
As the market rose up off that low, price action bounced up on top of fibonacci support at .9831 and moved sideways along that level for 9 months before blasting back to 1.3000 .... That price action made clear that .9831 was a very strong support level after a clear 5 year drop...
After the market hit 1.3000 again and created another top, we have once again seen price drop down to re-test the .9831 level as the market looked for fibonacci support there once again.. And indeed the market did find substantial support just below there by the .9500 handle before bouncing back up above .9831 support...
Bottom line here is that this market has been long term bearish since 2002, and the only major support I've seen since that bear trend started has been at .9831 ... I'm actually bullish this pair going into 2012 now that we've seen that support, I'm just looking to see if the market will indeed respect that level going forward... Ideally I would like to be long USD/CAD as close to .9831 as possible looking for a run above 1.1000, but in the meantime until I can clearly see the time to flip to long, I'm remaining short trying to drag price back down so I can flip to long at support..
There's no guarantee it will get there again, but I am trying to take it there.... Either way it goes, it's risk free for me since I already have profits locked in, I'll just sit back and let the market tell me what to do
Last edited by brad_1199; 12-30-2011 at 09:14 PM.
12-30-2011, 09:44 PM #44147
I liked your trade at the 1.04 level based upon all you stated at the time. However, the additional kicker for me was what appeared to be a wave D triangle top. We both got the expected quick drop to under 1.02 where price has stalled out and stabilized.
Here is where I have to part company with the short trade. I am now long and going with the daily triangle pattern which if correct will launch the pair into the 1.10 plus region. So far the market has respected the uptrend line support. In addition, it has shown all the required traits that make me believe it will fulfill the triangle expectation. R/R here is very manageable because stops can be placed very tight in case of a triangle failure.
The market will tell us where it wants to go.
12-30-2011, 11:26 PM #44148
Originally Posted by brad_1199
Interesting scenario here. You may just get that test of support yet. From what I see on my chart here, price has closed below the support trend line (blue) from the .9406 low back in July. It has not yet broken the lower daily triangle trend line in red. If that breaks we could see a test of the .94 low judging by the width of the triangle beginning. However, if we don't break below then we should get some nice upside toward 1.10 or at least enough to close the gap at around 1.0450 from late november just above the upper triangle trend line. See what happens.
12-30-2011, 11:28 PM #44149
Fibonacci can be used in many different ways, each trader will use it how they see fit...
Originally Posted by Luxman
As for the hanging man pattern I pointed out on the AUD/USD monthly chart, notice that the body of the candle is red, this indicates a strong bearish sentiment... If the body of the candle was black and closed near the highs, this would have indicated a stronger possibility for bullish continuation... Also notice how long the wick sticking out the bottom side of the candle is... It is more than twice the length of the body, this also indicates strong bearish sentiment... And all of this happening at the 161.8 fibo extension... This is all just too much evidence of a major top... I say give it some time, it'll drop... I just can't see any more up side left, the bull run in this pair ended at 1.1079 several months ago and I heavily doubt we'll see that high challenged again...
12-30-2011, 11:35 PM #44150
As much as I am not overly bullish on the markets, I can't help but notice this possibility on the dow which I believe will probably fail.
12-30-2011, 11:48 PM #44151
The possibilty I see for upside in this pair could be to reach a small gap that I show on my daily chart of 2 pips. I did discard this idea but with todays close above the downtrend line on my chart, it could possibly make a case for a triple top before falling. See how it plays out, but I am leaning to the downside more than the upside longer term.
Originally Posted by brad_1199
01-01-2012, 10:40 AM #44152
harmonic usd / cad H4
Originally Posted by diver
01-02-2012, 09:38 AM #44153
01-02-2012, 09:39 AM #44154
CAD JPY (Daily)
Shorted this @ 76.00 on Thursday evening last week. Already made over 50 pips!
Last edited by Jtrader85; 01-02-2012 at 12:57 PM.
01-02-2012, 03:28 PM #44155
I hope everyone has a prosperous New Year. Now to chime in on the $cad. I expect the current consolidation period to last another week and possibly until late January.
However, based on cycle and Elliott analysis, I am long-term bullish this pair. The $cad has been trading in a cycle that averages about 48 months (47.53). The longest cycle is 62 months and the shortest is 37. In my analysis, a bullish cycle ends with a low that is higher than the low at the beginning of the cycle. Conversely, a bear cycle would end with a low, lower that the low at the beginning of the cycle. A 4 year price trend that starts at .94, rises to 1.17 and ends at 1.12, would be bullish. Cycles within the pair have alternated between bullish and bearish since 1972. There is no occurrence of more than 2 Bear cycles in sequence nor more than 3 Bull cycles in sequence. Bear cycles have tended to be the shortest ranging from 37 to 48 months. The time measured from the beginning of the cycle (low) to the high of the cycle ranges from 5 months to a maximum of 24 months for bear cycles and from 16 to 57 months for Bull cycles.
The $cad completed a sequence of 2 bear cycles in November of 2007. The period from November of 2007 to July of 2011 was a Bull cycle lasting 45 months. The high of the cycle was achieved in 16 months. Assuming that the sequence will be repeated with at least 2 bull cycles and not more than 3, the $cad is in a long term uptrend or Bull cycle with at least one more Bull cycle to complete.
Bull cycles over the period in question have ranged from 39 to 62 months with the average length of Bull cycles being 51 months. The time from low to high in a bull cycle has ranged from 16 months to a high of 57 months with the average time for a bull cycle being 35.5 months. Assuming the cycle time from low to high of 16 months, the cycle high for the current Bull cycle will occur in October of 2012. Assuming the average from low to high for all cycles of 27 months, the cycle high will not occur until September 2013.
Next we turn to Elliott and Time Cycle analysis to confirm the date. In applying Elliott analysis I assume the move up(chart) from November 2007 to March of 2009, is an A wave and the move that completed in May of 2011, was a B wave, the current move is a C wave that is likely to complete above the March 8 high. If wave C consumes the same amount of time as wave A, the earliest that the cycle will complete is June of 2013. When we apply important numbers to the analysis we get several dates clustered in the first and second quarters of 2012 and, in December of 2012. The next cluster occurs in August and September of 2013. The important dates here are 8/21/13 and 9/11/13.
Based on this analysis, I believe the $cad is in a long-term Bullish trend that will last throughout 2012.
01-02-2012, 05:45 PM #44156
Very nice stuff!
Originally Posted by aerocom
01-02-2012, 07:51 PM #44157
All three targets have been reached. the reversal is around the corner. the main count is a little bit changed. eurusd is currently in wave E of contracting triangle
Originally Posted by pacos
01-02-2012, 08:08 PM #44158
AUD/USD Daily Chart ----->
Looking for 1.0309 Resistance to contain price action and send it lower....
I think price could rally a bit higher than 1.0309, but if it does I don't think it will be by much...
Bears keep your eyes peeled...
Last edited by brad_1199; 01-02-2012 at 08:14 PM.
01-02-2012, 08:44 PM #44159
USD/CHF Ending Diagonal on the Daily Chart.....
01-03-2012, 10:15 AM #44160
interesting situation in the eur / gbp