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  1. FX - Medium term technical outlook

    by , 02-02-2015 at 06:39 PM
    • Medium term trends and technical levels that are dominating the markets today
    • AUDUSD may decline further on technical and fundamental reasons
    • USDCAD is bullish but USOIL has stabilized which warns about a reversal


    EURUSD
    The trend is bearish as long as we trade below 1.19 and we should given the trend trade lower and maybe reach as low as 1.08. Traders will probably look to fade strength in the 1.15 - 1.1750 zone. However the FXCM SSI index is not supporting further declines which increases the risk of a reversal. My fundamental outlook is bearish.

    Daily chart
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    GBPUSD
    Price is consolidating since January and we need a bearish breakout for ...

    Updated 02-02-2015 at 07:21 PM by Alejandro Zambrano

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  2. Equity and Commodity market outlook Jan 7 - 2015

    by , 01-07-2015 at 08:30 AM
    GER30
    We are trapped between 9421 and 9629, the overall trend remains bearish and we might test the lower end of the range. Yet given that we are fairly close to major support on the daily chart we should expect an attempt for the short term trend to turn bullish over the next few days.

    I would argue that if we breakout below 9421 then this might take us to 9351 and then 9320. I also suspect that the short term trend might already have turned bullish.

    30 minute time frame
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    Gold
    Gold did not trigger any levels yesterday. Price is expected to consolidate and we should remain trapped between 1239 and 1166 until we get a fundamental reason to breakout. ...

    Updated 01-07-2015 at 08:35 AM by Alejandro Zambrano

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  3. Equity and Commodity market outlook Jan 6 - 2015

    by , 01-05-2015 at 09:37 AM
    Most stock markets are lower as anticipated last week, with most of our bearish outlooks working out great.

    It is also interesting to note that equity markets are starting to reach major support levels, which means that traders will probably soon favor long positions given the overall supportive macro fundamental theme. The political turmoil in Greece is the markets major concern right now.

    As we start to reach major support we should experience a slightly choppy market as the long term and short term trends meet.


    GER30

    The trends keep on rewarding us, yesterday I said 'Today the trend remains bearish below 9830 and we may reach 9600 as long as we trade below 9830.' Prices traded as low as 9382. ...

    Updated 01-06-2015 at 08:32 AM by Alejandro Zambrano

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  4. FX - EURUSD medium term outlook UPDATE

    by , 12-30-2014 at 12:11 PM
    In our special report about EURUSD published in early December we covered the fundamental and technical reasons for being bearish.

    EURUSD was trading at 1.2450 at the time and has now reached 1.2150 which was our first target. Below is an updated technical outlook. Our fundamental reasons for being bearish remain the same, for the reasons please see this article.

    In addition to the article above, if the FED would increase rates with 50 basis points during 2015, then this will change the 3 month Libor spread between the US-EU to the extent that the EURUSD fair value will be near 1.18. A 50 bps rate increase is what the markets are expecting according to the OIS rates published by Citi group.

    Technical
    ...

    Updated 12-30-2014 at 12:15 PM by Alejandro Zambrano

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