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Alejandro Zambrano

  1. Equity and Commodity market outlook Dec 16 - 2014

    by , 12-16-2014 at 07:33 AM
    Stock markets and Oil experienced strong losses yesterday exceeding my expectations for declines. The trend of most stock markets are still bearish today and Oil plunged to a new low this morning hence, we can't rule out further losses today.

    While I am sticking to the short term bearish trends I would like to point out that we have started to reach longer term support for stock markets, hence we should expect the markets to be choppy.

    Tomorrow this month's FED meeting will take place and the FED is expected to change their statement to hint about rate hikes in 2015. If this does take place then this should be bearish for stock markets, Gold and Oil, while bullish for the US Dollar.

    GER30

    The very ...
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  2. Equity and Commodity market outlook Dec 15 - 2014

    by , 12-15-2014 at 10:27 AM
    Stock markets and Oil experienced strong declines last week hence is understandable that we have experienced bounces in Stock markets this morning. The short term trends are however bearish and we don't have any fundamental reason to be buyers.

    In the case of USOIL we may even turn more bearish as Opec members seem to be ready to allow Brent Crude to reach 40 US Dollar (see ticker UKOIL). There is a strong link between stock markets and Oil right now, we have also seen another decline in the Russian Ruble. An oil price that is too low, may harm Russia which may hit the stock markets.

    Later this week, we will get the outcome of the FOMC meeting, if the FED changes their language as anticipated and hint about rate
    ...

    Updated 12-15-2014 at 10:31 AM by Alejandro Zambrano

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  3. Equity and Commodity market outlook Dec 12 - 2014

    by , 12-12-2014 at 08:18 AM
    Below is an technical overview of some of the most popular Stock Market indices and Commodities.

    GER30

    Price stayed below yesterday's key level 9909 and reached our 9700 target this morning. FTSE100 and US30 are at very low levels and so is the GER30, markets have been declining for the whole week.

    Given that price tried to breakout down below 9730 this morning but failed to gain momentum I suspect that we may try to reach 9850 as long as we trade above 9630. We might also get a bullish push by traders that have been short for most of the week and are now looking to cash out.

    60 minute time frame
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    XAUUSD - Gold
    We more or less reached ...

    Updated 12-12-2014 at 08:32 AM by Alejandro Zambrano

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  4. FX - EURUSD medium term outlook

    by , 12-11-2014 at 08:57 AM
    This article looks at the longer term trend for EURUSD, we look at the technical and the current fundamental theme.

    EURUSD
    The prevailing trend is bearish as long as we trade below 1.2600 which is the last major high. The 20 period moving average is clearly sloping lower and we are now at the Monthly Pivot Point level. We may given the bearish trend be able to reach 1.2250 which is the current yearly low. We may even reach 1.2150 as long as we trade below 1.2600.

    If we breakout above 1.2600 traders will target 1.2700.

    Fundamental backdrop

    The current fundamental theme is that EU inflation is too low and that the current ECB measures are not enough. Lower Brent crude has not been factored ...
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