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Alejandro Zambrano

  1. Equity and Commodity market outlook Jan 7 - 2015

    by , 01-07-2015 at 08:30 AM
    We are trapped between 9421 and 9629, the overall trend remains bearish and we might test the lower end of the range. Yet given that we are fairly close to major support on the daily chart we should expect an attempt for the short term trend to turn bullish over the next few days.

    I would argue that if we breakout below 9421 then this might take us to 9351 and then 9320. I also suspect that the short term trend might already have turned bullish.

    30 minute time frame
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    Gold did not trigger any levels yesterday. Price is expected to consolidate and we should remain trapped between 1239 and 1166 until we get a fundamental reason to breakout. ...

    Updated 01-07-2015 at 08:35 AM by Alejandro Zambrano

  2. Equity and Commodity market outlook Jan 6 - 2015

    by , 01-05-2015 at 09:37 AM
    Most stock markets are lower as anticipated last week, with most of our bearish outlooks working out great.

    It is also interesting to note that equity markets are starting to reach major support levels, which means that traders will probably soon favor long positions given the overall supportive macro fundamental theme. The political turmoil in Greece is the markets major concern right now.

    As we start to reach major support we should experience a slightly choppy market as the long term and short term trends meet.


    The trends keep on rewarding us, yesterday I said 'Today the trend remains bearish below 9830 and we may reach 9600 as long as we trade below 9830.' Prices traded as low as 9382. ...

    Updated 01-06-2015 at 08:32 AM by Alejandro Zambrano

  3. FX - EURUSD medium term outlook UPDATE

    by , 12-30-2014 at 12:11 PM
    In our special report about EURUSD published in early December we covered the fundamental and technical reasons for being bearish.

    EURUSD was trading at 1.2450 at the time and has now reached 1.2150 which was our first target. Below is an updated technical outlook. Our fundamental reasons for being bearish remain the same, for the reasons please see this article.

    In addition to the article above, if the FED would increase rates with 50 basis points during 2015, then this will change the 3 month Libor spread between the US-EU to the extent that the EURUSD fair value will be near 1.18. A 50 bps rate increase is what the markets are expecting according to the OIS rates published by Citi group.


    Updated 12-30-2014 at 12:15 PM by Alejandro Zambrano

  4. FX - AUDUSD medium term outlook

    by , 12-30-2014 at 10:32 AM
    AUDUSD could trade as low as 0.77

    • A weak Australian economy might spur a rate cute
    • Relative Terms of Trade should weigh on AUDUSD
    • The central bank desires a lower currency rate

    Weakness in the Australian Dollar throughout 2014 was many times attributed to a weak demand for Australia’s export products and to speculations about higher US short term interest rates. Significantly less focus was placed on the domestic economy, but I suspect that this might change in 2015 as the weak external demand is having its toll on the Australian economy.

    RBA rate cut?
    The game changer for 2015 which may drive the Australian dollar lower may be speculations about RBA rate cuts. The reason ...

    Updated 12-30-2014 at 10:51 AM by Alejandro Zambrano

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