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  1. FX - AUDUSD medium term outlook

    by , 12-30-2014 at 10:32 AM
    AUDUSD could trade as low as 0.77

    • A weak Australian economy might spur a rate cute
    • Relative Terms of Trade should weigh on AUDUSD
    • The central bank desires a lower currency rate

    Weakness in the Australian Dollar throughout 2014 was many times attributed to a weak demand for Australia’s export products and to speculations about higher US short term interest rates. Significantly less focus was placed on the domestic economy, but I suspect that this might change in 2015 as the weak external demand is having its toll on the Australian economy.

    RBA rate cut?
    The game changer for 2015 which may drive the Australian dollar lower may be speculations about RBA rate cuts. The reason ...

    Updated 12-30-2014 at 10:51 AM by Alejandro Zambrano

  2. Equity and Commodity market outlook Dec 29 - 2014

    by , 12-29-2014 at 09:04 AM
    Talking points

    • GER30 and US30 are lower this morning, hinting about a bearish week for Stock Markets
    • Greece's Samaras loses Presidential vote
    • USOIL may prove to be very interesting if we get a breakout as the US markets open today

    Stock markets are slightly weaker today with the US30 and GER30 being lower on profit taking but also on Greece's Samaras losing the Presidential vote. Out of the US30, GER30 and UK100, it’s only the UK100 that is holding up. Given that US30 and GER30 are both lower, this strengthens the case that the first few days of this week will be bearish.

    After 2 to 3 days correction I suspect that traders will opt for long positions on a dip, primarily via the US30.

    Updated 12-29-2014 at 09:10 AM by Alejandro Zambrano

  3. FX London session outlook EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, AUDUSD - Dec 23

    by , 12-23-2014 at 08:22 AM
    The US Dollar keeps on gaining and our bullish US Dollar views since Friday last week have so far worked out great. Today we are very near the yearly low of the GBPUSD and if US Data prints better than expected we may create a new yearly low. IF data is worse off than expected we may get a short covering rally. This means that short term traders are probably booking gains on GBPUSD short term positions and only longer term traders are keeping their positions.

    AUDUSD created a new yearly low overnight but has since bounced. We can see on the chart that price is reluctantly trading lower but as long as the trend is bearish so will I be bearish.

    The overall trend is bearish and a breakout below 1.2222 should

    Updated 12-23-2014 at 08:26 AM by Alejandro Zambrano

  4. Equity and Commodity market outlook Dec 23 - 2014

    by , 12-23-2014 at 05:28 AM
    The DAX30 traded higher in yesterday's session but did not manage to firmly take out 9920 which was Friday's high. This leaves us trapped between 9827 and 9930. Traders that are waiting to trade will probably opt for a breakout above 9930, which should trigger a rally to 10 000. While traders that are already long have probably left their stops just below 9827 which is yesterdays swing low.

    30 minute time frame
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    Gold managed to take out the 1185 low and traded as low as 1171, I was anticipating a decline to 1166. Today we are correcting some of yesterday's losses, but as long as we trade below 1206 I expect that traders will short again and eventually drive ...

    Updated 12-23-2014 at 05:33 AM by Alejandro Zambrano

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