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03-28-2012, 08:04 AM #9586
03-28-2012, 08:11 AM #9587
Good stuff but isn't the “election ramp” supposed to be stocks-up-dollar-down; not dollar up ?
Originally Posted by TAfool
03-28-2012, 08:17 AM #9588
At that dollar up-cycle peak 36 years ago, the US had been the world’s largest creditor nation for some 60 years, so the Fed could/did massively hike rates to combat inflation, which of course sent the dollar soaring.
Originally Posted by Mary R
That was the long-cycle peak, and if you look at the long wave cycle of 60 or 51.6 years for currencies over the millennia, you will see we are still in the dollar slide phase, as per various long wave theories.
Unfortunately today, as the largest creditor nation ever, the US is unable to absorb even tiny Interest rate increases, and the Fed is terrified of higher rates. Thus Fed ZIRP has been and will be a no-brainer until the US sov debt crisis hits the wall SPLAT (now inevitable per dozens of similar precedents over centuries as documented in Reinhart & Rogoff’s great book).
That flush will be the end of the long wave down cycle and when the dollar (or the successor US currency) starts a new primary uptrend again. No sooner, notwithstanding the usual corrective waves of course.
03-28-2012, 08:24 AM #9589
Okay, after GBP/AUD didn't reach its butterfly last night I zoomed in on this nice gartley with resistance on EUR/GBP. Shorts at .8422, this should be a good one. Attachment 120462
03-28-2012, 08:30 AM #9590
I see it from a different perspective - I think the philosophy of Reaganism is poisonous to the American dollar, and until the US is purged of this ideology the dollar is at a serious risk. The upcoming election will be critical.
Originally Posted by SkiBunny
Those who believe that the Fed won't raise rates because of the deficit don't really understand the US legal system. The US isn't going to face a sovereign crisis for the same reason the Europeans have been able to control their crisis. They default on their citizens not on the bond holders. it's already starting at the local level and the state level and it will likely occur at the federal level too. Take a look at the following article about a federal judge who let a municipality pay its bond holders in full while slashing pensions. it's good to be the bond market.
Judge lets bankrupt US town slash pensions - FT.com
But ultimately no one can predict the long term future - the concept that this is possible is a very Newtonian view of the universe, thinking that everything repeats itself in a perfect cycle. The laws of thermodynamics disprove much of that theory. So I don't know any more than anyone else and neither do Reinhart and Rogoff
03-28-2012, 08:42 AM #9591
Cheers - you are lucky to live in southern italy. I visited the Amalfi coast one time, it was the most beautiful place Ive ever seen. Maybe if the euro goes lower I can afford another trip to Italy
Originally Posted by For-ex-wifes
03-28-2012, 08:49 AM #9592
03-28-2012, 10:28 AM #9593
It's very sad that you think the Americans don't really have any allies only enemies... But it may be true in many areas that people object to the policies of the US government and military although they don't really hate the American people. But the same is true of Iran... the present regime appears highly hostile and belligerent but I have met a few ex patriot Iranians living in the US who escaped after the Ayotollah took over and they say that most Iranian people do not agree with the actions of their government...
Originally Posted by SkiBunny
The theme that civilization in inherently dehumanizing and that all governments are inherently malevolent and destructive is as old as the Bible and found in almost every science fiction horror movie ever made...
03-28-2012, 10:34 AM #9594
03-28-2012, 10:38 AM #9595
Charts from today's edition of the webinar Bulls vs. Bears @ The Trading Room 11:30 GMT Mon - Fri
Follow me on twitter: https://twitter.com/AlejandroDFX
03-28-2012, 10:44 AM #9596
daily and 4 hour charts attached with a few TL. also added the USDOLLAR, looks like a bull flag possibly........
Last edited by jogold18; 03-28-2012 at 10:56 AM.
03-28-2012, 12:17 PM #9597
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03-28-2012, 12:31 PM #9598
03-28-2012, 12:36 PM #9599
03-28-2012, 12:49 PM #9600
(off - topic ... just one quick bla)
Last edited by SkiBunny; 03-28-2012 at 12:52 PM.