• Major event risk like this week's NFPs, ECB and RBA decisions have considerable market moving potential
• Potential, however, does not ensure market volatility - much less fulfilled expectations
• Where the NFPs offered scope and 'surprise', it confronts quiet conditions and complacency
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If the November US unemployment rate has dropped to the level the Fed would correspond to an end to stimulus, why didn't the dollar rally - or even break out of a tight range? Event risk's influence over the market depends on a number of factors: importance to major themes, the mispricing it represents in the market and the general market conditions it is released into. A strong employment report does shift the US stimulus discussion, but trend development on a Friday (heading into the weekend) in December (the 'quietest' month) is a serious headwind. And, we shouldn't mistake a lack of short-term volatility as a sign that an event is not important or worthy of trend. We discuss market-moving fundamentals in today's Forex Strategy Video.
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