Talking Points:
• We are heading into the 'Summer Lull', but seasonal quiet conflicts dramatically with underlying risks
• After the FOMC and US GDP reading fell 'in-line' last week, a data-focused rate outlook will turn to NFPs
• While the Dollar will be center focus; the Pound, Aussie and Kiwi Dollars may prove surprise movers
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We are facing increasingly disparate market conditions and the facade of quiet will eventually falter. On the one hand, we have the seasonal 'Summer Doldrums' which typically saps volume and volatility - particularly in the month of August. On the other, market participants are increasingly aware of the precarious nature of the consensus expectations, fading momentum and ultimate exposure amongst the masses. It is important to remain vigilant on this seemingly dormant theme as its fallout can - and will - be extraordinary. In the meantime, the week ahead is filled with event risk and particularly with items that can tap into a capable fundamental theme: relative monetary policy. The most high-profile indicator on the list is the NFPs, but labor data's wage component and Monday's PCE inflation report speak more directly to rate forecasting. High level event risk for the UK and Australia should also have traders keeping tabs on Pound and Aussie sets going forward. We look at the event risk and market potential ahead in the weekend Trading Video.
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