Talking Points:
• Like the Euro's drop before the ECB, the USDollar rallied to a fresh 11-year high before Friday's NFPs
• The headline payrolls figure will be a capable spark for the S&P 500 while USD will follow earnings
• EURUSD, GBPUSD and USDJPY would outperform in different scenarios for the data release
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We are heading into a key piece of event risk that taps a critical fundamental trend with both the Dollar and S&P 500 near their exceptional highs. The February NFPs data has proven a meaningful market mover the past few releases and this instance is unlikely to be different. The headline payroll reading is once again being viewed as an important measure of economic health, but the persistent trend in labor conditions makes the timing for rate expectations a little more difficult to alter. To truly sway rate expectations, measures like the hourly earnings statistics are more important. We establish what data is important, the scenarios for its release and what outcomes generate heavier moves from the Dollar and risk trends in today's Strategy Video.
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