Talking Points:
• Volume drop in US markets during the Thanksgiving holiday, but it holds globally - volatility though is uniform
• Heading into December, expectations for gains will be strong in global markets; but risks are extreme
• Event risk like the FOMC decision can override seasonal gains across SPX, DAX, NKY and the Shanghai
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Seasonal studies don't just insinuate US equities are well positioned for year-end gains, the past decade shows a tendency to strong gains for capital markets the world over. That only furthers the dangerous circumstances in the the financial market as complacency finds deeper hold over speculative decisions. Given the level of exposure investors currently maintain and the near-certainty of a liquidity squeeze, the volatility risk from key event risk should urge greater caution - not confidence. Through the Thanksgiving-sapped remainder of this week, speculative depth will hold up across global market hubs; but the real test comes through the coming month when bulls are at their most confident. We gauge global seasonal expectations against heavy event risk in today's Strategy Video.
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