Talking Points:
• The Fed kept open a possible December hike, ECB a December QE upgrade, and the BoJ quashed an October QE lift
• Key levels are within sight with specific risk benchmarks like SPX and many Dollar-based majors
• Top even risk this week will be NFPs, BoE and RBA rate decisions, Chinese PMIs and many central bank speeches
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Market activity this past week proved volatile and at times exceptionally tense. While the heavy event risk generated significant moves, we have yet to make the critical decisions on trend and momentum. Next week will give us another opportunity to fully engage the speculative ranks. Having failed to make the final push to its 12-year high, the USDollar will tap a round of Fed speeches and Friday's NFPs to either supply the fuel for the critical thrust or turn the currency back more permanently. Risk trends will open on the offensive coming off its strongest monthly rally in four years and the fourth strongest move in over a decade. Record highs are within reach, but other sentiment outlets - both fundamental and symbolic - send to provide a very different signal. Aside from these big themes, we have plenty of event risk and shifting trading conditions. Amongst the many key catalysts, traders should watch for China's economic activity reports (PMIs), the BoE and RBA rate decisions, and a range of speeches by central bank heads. We consider catalysts, conditions and setups in this weekend Trading Video.
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