Talking Points:
• FOMC minutes were top event risk this past session, but a status quo didn't resolve Dollar value debates
• Higher profile sparks are ahead with both currency-specific data as well as thematic drivers
• Global PMIs can stir risk trends while key US data and ECB minutes can redirect monetary policy forecasts
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EURUSD traders were eyeing 1.1000 as the FOMC minutes approached this past session. After the policy update was absorbed into speculative bearings, we find this pair is still glued to the key level. To see a key break or concerted rebound, the market needs something that better reinforces conviction. We will have bigger fundamental waves in the upcoming trading days. Immediately ahead, we have a range of US event risk (Fed speak, US activity measures) and the ECB's own policy meeting transcript. This represents competing themes: concern over the recovery of the US economy from the US 1Q slump versus possible confirmation that the ECB may front-load its QE efforts. Those watching global risk trends should also take note of the PMI readings due through Thursday's session. These 'proxies' for GDP can offer an economic reason for sentiment shift. We cover theses specific catalyst and general themes in today's Trading Video.
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