Talking Points:
• NFPs offered a last minute reprieve for a wilting Dollar, but its S&P 500 impact looks questionable
• Top scheduled event risk in the week ahead are the BoE Quarterly Inflation report and EZ 4Q GDP numbers
• Unscheduled risk is far more imposing however including Greece's deteriorating situation and broad 'risk'
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This past week was a nail bitter for the markets with the USDollar on the verge of reversal and the S&P 500 within reach of fresh record highs. Friday's NFPs halted both technical breaks with an uptick in the jobless rate that was overshadowed by a strong rise in earnings - the precursor to inflation and thereby an important milestone for timing the Fed's rate hike. Heading into the new trading week, the technical pressure remains while another wave of new and existing fundamental concerns washes over the market. For scheduled event risk, the Pound and Euro face the most concentrated docket items between the BoE's Quarterly Inflation Report and Friday's Euro-area GDP data. However, it may be the amorphous risks like the deteriorating Greek financial position, the swell in volatility readings or fading confidence in stimulus that may ultimately cue the big-picture market changes. We discuss the market's position and sparks in the Weekend Strategy Video.
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