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Forex: Measuring Risk and Euro Crisis in EUR/USD, EUR/JPY Reversals

By , Chief Currency Strategist
28 November 2012 04:03 GMT

The markets had time to digest the new steps the Eurogroup took towards easing the immediate financial burden on Greece. Supposedly deferring the greatest risk to the Euro-area and broader risk trends should have theoretically rallied the euro and risky assets like the S&P 500 and AUDUSD. Yet, EURUSD marked a conspicuous reversal on a failed break of 1.3000 and other investor sentiment-sensitive markets showed little relief. Normally, we would take a negative response to a positive outcome as a sign that the market's are ready to tumble; but there is another factor that is complicating this scenario: participation. For those looking for a strong, market-wide 'risk off' or 'risk on' move through the medium-term; we need to account for this structural market condition. We discuss this and shorter-term trade setups in today's video.

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28 November 2012 04:03 GMT