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US Dollar Forecast To Bounce off of Range Lows

By David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist
19 November 2009 15:26 GMT

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Our sentiment-based forex trading strategies may soon go long the US Dollar versus the British Pound and other key counterparts, as a sudden shift in sentiment points to further near-term gains for the US currency. Traders had previously bought aggressively into USD declines—giving us contrarian signal to buy the Euro/US Dollar. Yet the most recent turnaround leaves crowds pointing in exactly the opposite direction, and the abrupt shift leaves scope for further dollar pullbacks. The notable exception is the US Dollar/Japanese Yen pair, where our contrarian sentiment strategy points to further Japanese Yen rallies (USDJPY losses).

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19 November 2009 15:26 GMT