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Talking Points:
- USD/CHF Technical Strategy: Flat
- USD/CHF has continued to trade within the symmetrical wedge of 2015 price action.
- Short-term setups could look attractive to the short-side for those looking to line up bearish-USD positions.
Volatility in the wake of FOMC has brought considerable movement into USD/CHF along with most other USD-pairings. The notable element of this recent tick higher in volatility has been a strong Swiss Franc to go along with a strong US Dollar; and while the Dollar may have exhibited greater strength than the Franc over the past four trading days as exhibited by higher prices in USD/CHF; should USD-weakness come into the market this could be one of the more attractive ways to trade that theme.
The near-term setup could be conducive to short positions as we’ve run into a previously-resistant price zone at .9780-.9800. This had marked the previous ‘lower-high’ in the pair as well as being the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the secondary move in USD/CHF (taking the 2015 high to low). Short positions could look to place stops above the September high of 98.25 with targets cast towards .9681 (50% Fibonacci retracement of the ‘big picture move’) and then 95.77 (50% Fib retracement of the most recent major move).
The long side of USD/CHF could be more difficult to work with as there are numerous price action highs within the next 100 pips that could provide resistance. Traders could look for support on this previously resistant area of .9780-.9800 before entertaining long setups; but should support come in around old resistance, the door could open for targets at .9900 (six-month-high) and then parity at 1.0000 (major psychological level).
