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US Dollar Selling Pauses as Stocks Test May Highs, Gold Meets Resistance

By Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist
05 August 2010 01:06 GMT

MSCI WORLD STOCK INDEXPrices surged sharply higher, taking out resistance at $1131.35, the June swing high, with May’s top at $1158.71 now lining up as resistance. A break above this juncture would expose the psychologically significant $1200 figure.

US_Dollar_Selling_Pauses_as_Stocks_Test_May_Highs_Gold_Meets_Resistance_body_080510_STK.png, US Dollar Selling Pauses as Stocks Test May Highs, Gold Meets Resistance

US DOLLAR INDEXUnchanged from yesterday: “Prices have taken out support at 82.11, the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the 4/12-6/7 upswing. Still, positive RSI divergence continues to hint that a rebound is in the works in the near term, albeit from a lower base. Continued selling is eyeing a move toward April’s swing low at 80.07.

US_Dollar_Selling_Pauses_as_Stocks_Test_May_Highs_Gold_Meets_Resistance_body_080510_USD.png, US Dollar Selling Pauses as Stocks Test May Highs, Gold Meets Resistance

CRUDE OILPrices are testing resistance at $82.55, the 138.2% Fibonacci extension of the 6/28-7/6 downswing having bounced from the bottom of a rising channel set from the low in May. A Shooting Start candlestick formation hints that a reversal lower may be next, with initial support at $79.38. Alternatively, a break higher exposes $84.50.

US_Dollar_Selling_Pauses_as_Stocks_Test_May_Highs_Gold_Meets_Resistance_body_080510_OIL.png, US Dollar Selling Pauses as Stocks Test May Highs, Gold Meets Resistance

GOLDPrices are testing resistance at the top of a falling channel established from the swing high in June (now at $1195.18). The proximity of the psychologically significant $1200 figure further reinforces this barrier. A break higher initially exposes $1215.47.

US_Dollar_Selling_Pauses_as_Stocks_Test_May_Highs_Gold_Meets_Resistance_body_080510_GLD.png, US Dollar Selling Pauses as Stocks Test May Highs, Gold Meets Resistance

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05 August 2010 01:06 GMT