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Guest Commentary: How to Hit a USD/CAD Home Run off Warren Buffett...

By Ed Matts
18 January 2013 13:45 GMT

* Warren Buffett said "You can stand there with the bat on your shoulder for six months until you get a fat pitch.”

* So we have waited a long time for $USDCAD to end a major correction…This is how we are creating our own 'Fat Pitch.’

Guest_Commentary_How_to_Hit_a_USDCAD_Home_Run_off_Warren_Buffett..._body_Picture_1.png, Guest Commentary: How to Hit a USD/CAD Home Run off Warren Buffett...

Dollar Canada is in the latter stages of a correction from 1.0055 but perhaps not surprisingly for the erratic Canadian Dollar there are 4 equally valid similar but slightly different wave counts.

But by choosing the greatest confluence between all 4 we can arrive at one trading strategy what Warren Buffet called the Fat Pitch.

So having faded the 61.8% retracement at 9970 we needed a break of the 9820 low to provide the necessary three legs for the correction.

The first count. The Spike to 9815 could therefore have provided an odd 5 wave down from 9970 to a c=61.8% of A completing the correction. This is why we have finally started buying.. one third of the ideal position.

Secondly is that since 9970 the Dollar has been within a declining wedge and therefore should fade the 9880-90 region which it is so far for a spike down to 9795 the 61.8% but not beyond 9775. So we will add another third to longs at 9795, This is similar to the third count a double zigzag from 1.0055 that a further break down to 97.40. where we will buy the final third. For a rally through 9885 and 9925 the 61.8% to challenge the 9970 resistance again.

But the Bull market would still not be safe without having seen 9795 failure to sustain a rally 9970 would risk an irregular B wave a final break down still to 9795 and a C=A to 9740 before higher.

Further videos or commentaries are available from ww.marketvisiontv.com or @EdMatts on Twitter.

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18 January 2013 13:45 GMT