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Improve Timing in Japanese Yen Trades with US Treasury Bond Levels

By , Sr. Technical Strategist
12 July 2013 19:07 GMT

Like last week, plans call for selling a USDJPY rally. A move into 100.17/26 would be most welcome. Why? 100.17 is the post FOMC minutes close (hourly) and a significant volume level. 100.26 is the 61.8% of the decline from 101.53. Watch the rate along with the 30 year US bond to improve entry.

USDJPY

Hourly

Improve_Timing_in_Japanese_Yen_Trades_with_US_Treasury_Bond_Levels_body_usdjpy.png, Improve Timing in Japanese Yen Trades with US Treasury Bond Levels

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

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FOREXAnalysis: In last evening’s Daily Technicals, I focused on the near term triangle that was forming in the USDJPY. The triangle pattern failed as the USDJPY has exceeded 99.62. The rise is best classified as a 3 wave advance (triangle wave b). Just like last week, the implications are to look for an early week top. An rally into 100.17/26 would be most welcome. Why? 100.17 is the post FOMC minutes close (hourly) and a significant volume level. 100.26 is the 61.8% of the decline from 101.53. Watch the rate along with the 30 year US bond (see below chart) to improve entry. Strong support is seen at the 61.8% retracement / trendline / large volume NFP hourly close of 133 6/32. It’s critical to be alert to pattern and market levels in the bond market in the current market environment. In fact, pattern and a support in the bond level helped us anticipate Wednesday’s reaction.

FOREX Trading Strategy: Looking to short USDJPY above 100.

30 Yr U.S. Treasury Bond Contact (September)

Hourly

Improve_Timing_in_Japanese_Yen_Trades_with_US_Treasury_Bond_Levels_body_US.png, Improve Timing in Japanese Yen Trades with US Treasury Bond Levels

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

Interested in automated trading with Mirror Trader?

GBPJPY

4Hour

Improve_Timing_in_Japanese_Yen_Trades_with_US_Treasury_Bond_Levels_body_gbpjpy.png, Improve Timing in Japanese Yen Trades with US Treasury Bond Levels

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

Interested in automated trading with Mirror Trader?

FOREXAnalysis: We may get the opportunity to play a breakdown in the GBPJPY soon. Price has broken a series of trendlines in the last 2 months (see next chart…trendline extends off of the November and February lows and November and April lows). Once broken, the November-February trendline served as resistance in June and earlier this month. The November-April trendline has served as resistance for the last 2 days.

A head and shoulders top break failed in mid-June but price may be forming another head and shoulders top right now. In fact, the potential pattern is downward sloping and therefore especially bearish if confirmed. The target from this shorter term pattern would be 144.53 (break below 148.77 is needed). If confirmed, measured objectives from the larger pattern are 141.10 and 139.40. These levels are in line with the April and February lows.

FOREX Trading Strategy: Looking for an early week high (timing is going to be with USDJPY).

GBPJPY

Daily

Improve_Timing_in_Japanese_Yen_Trades_with_US_Treasury_Bond_Levels_body_gbpjpy_1.png, Improve Timing in Japanese Yen Trades with US Treasury Bond Levels

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

Interested in automated trading with Mirror Trader?

Gold

Daily

Improve_Timing_in_Japanese_Yen_Trades_with_US_Treasury_Bond_Levels_body_gold.png, Improve Timing in Japanese Yen Trades with US Treasury Bond Levels

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

Interested in automated trading with Mirror Trader?

FOREXAnalysis: Commodity Analysis: Gold’s rally consists of 2 equal legs (almost exactly). This relationship is typical of corrective movements. Just as important, the level is also defined by the 6/20 close. Volume that day was the 4th highest of the year, behind only 4/12, 4/15-4/16. The current area is also defined by Elliott channel resistance. In other words, there is a lot to push through here. Between here and 1340 is ‘no man’s land’. A push above 1340 would warrant a closer look, possibly offering a chance to buy dips. Several patterns were discussed at the beginning of Friday’s DailyFX Plus webinar. The bigger picture was covered last week.

FOREX Trading Strategy: Flat

Gold

Daily

Improve_Timing_in_Japanese_Yen_Trades_with_US_Treasury_Bond_Levels_body_gold_1.png, Improve Timing in Japanese Yen Trades with US Treasury Bond Levels

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

Interested in automated trading with Mirror Trader?

AUDUSD

Daily

Improve_Timing_in_Japanese_Yen_Trades_with_US_Treasury_Bond_Levels_body_audusd.png, Improve Timing in Japanese Yen Trades with US Treasury Bond Levels

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

Interested in automated trading with Mirror Trader?

FOREXAnalysis: Diabolical AUDUSD trading resumes, which in itself may indicate that a low is nearby. Momentum has waned significantly with the last several closing lows generating RSIs above 30. The NZDUSD has failed to confirm the AUDUSD low as well (although that could change). Specific levels to watch for a low are the trendline confluence next week and 161.8% extension of the early June decline at .8911.

FOREX Trading Strategy: Was stopped out of longs Friday. Once again on the look for a ‘tradeable’ low.

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow him on Twitter @JamieSaettele

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Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

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12 July 2013 19:07 GMT