Talking Points
- GBP/USD fails at key resistance, but cycles favor final push
- USD/JPY nearing important upside pivot
- AUD/USD fails near channel highs
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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:
Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- USD/JPY has moved modestly higher over the past few days
- Our near-term trend bias is positive while above 118.40
- A move through 120.85 is needed to signal the start of a more meaningful push higher
- A very minor turn window is seen tomorrow
- A close below 118.40 would turn us negative on USD/JPY
USD/JPY Strategy: Like holding only reduced longs above 118.40.
| Instrument | Support 2 | Support 1 | Spot | Resistance 1 | Resistance 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | *118.40 | 119.50 | 119.75 | 120.00 | *120.85 |
Price & Time Analysis: AUD/USD
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- AUD/USD failed near the February channel highs last weeks in the .7910 area
- Our near-term trend bias is negative while below .7910
- A move below .7740/15 is needed to re-instill downside momentum in the exchange rate
- A minor turn window is eyed tomorrow ahead of a more important window around the end of the week
- A close over .7910 would turns us positive on the Aussie
AUD/USD Strategy: Like the short side while below .7910
| Instrument | Support 2 | Support 1 | Spot | Resistance 1 | Resistance 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/USD | *.7715 | .7740 | .7805 | .7845 | *.7910 |
Focus Chart of the Day: GBP/USD
GBP/USD failed last week almost precisely at the 1.5550 38% retracement of the September to January decline. This action warns that the exchange rate is attempting to resume the broader decline in place since July of last year. What makes the situation a little less clear is the timing aspect. The first part of next week has a nice convergence of short and longer-term cyclical relationships. Ideally we would like to see Cable make a new recovery high or come somewhat close into this key period before turning. However, the aggressive weakness from resistance last week makes us question whether we will see that. There is plenty of time and potential catalysts before next week’s “turn window” so we shall see. Traction under 1.5300/15 would probably be further evidence of an early downside resumption.
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--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.
To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX
