Talking Points
- USD/JPY nearing a range break?
- AUD/USD falls to new 5-year low
- Gold rebounds off key retracement level
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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:
Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- USD/JPY remains in consolidation mode above key support at 116.00/35
- Our near-term trend bias remains positive while above 117.40 (closing basis)
- Interim resistance is seen around 118.00, but traction over 118.85 is really needed to signal that a more important push higher is underway
- A very minor turn window is seen tomorrow
- A close under 117.40 would turn us negative on the exchange rate
USD/JPY Strategy: Square.
| Instrument | Support 2 | Support 1 | Spot | Resistance 1 | Resistance 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | *116.00/35 | 117.40 | 117.45 | 118.00 | *118.85 |
Price & Time Analysis: AUD/USD
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- AUD/USD fell to its lowest level since May of 2009 earlier today
- Our near-term trend bias is negative while below .7830
- A move under Fibonacci supports between .7570 and .7605 will expose more important downside attractions in the low .7000’s
- A minor cycle turn is eyed late this week ahead of a more important window next week
- A close above .7830 would turn us positive on the Aussie.
AUD/USD Strategy: Like the short side while below .7830.
| Instrument | Support 2 | Support 1 | Spot | Resistance 1 | Resistance 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/USD | *.7570 | .7605 | .7760 | .7805 | *.7830 |
Focus Chart of the Day: GOLD
The advance in Gold stalled late last month near the 78.6% retracement of the July-November decline in the 1300 area. However, the weakness that has followed has taken a fairly corrective tone with the metal finding support last Thursday by the 38% retracement of the January range at 1250. Looking at some of the lower timeframes we can see a pretty clear inverse head & shoulders pattern shaping up (see hourly chart above) that suggests the medium-term uptrend in place since November may soon try to reassert itself. Traction over 1285 would help confirm this view and set the stage for a push north of 1310. Weakness under 1266 would be a cause for concern, but only a move under 1250 would turn the technical picture outright negative.
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This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.
--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX
