Talking Points
- EUR/USD in consolidation mode ahead of ECB
- Gold trades at highest level in almost 5-months
- USD/JPY rallies sharply ahead of BOJ Decision
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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:
Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- EUR/USD has struggled higher over the past few days after posting an 11-year low last week
- Our near-term trend bias is negative on the rate while below 1.1755
- A close under 1.1555 is needed to signal a broader downside resumption
- A major turn window is eyed around the end of the week
- A close above 1.1755 would turn us positive on the euro
EUR/USD Strategy: Like the short side while below 1.1755
| Instrument | Support 2 | Support 1 | Spot | Resistance 1 | Resistance 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | *1.1455 | *1.1555 | 1.1605 | 1.1635 | *1.1755 |
Price & Time Analysis: GOLD
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- GOLD overcame resistance 1286 to trade at its highest level in almost 5-months today
- Our near-term trend bias is positive on the metal while above 1270
- A connfluence of Fibonacci levels near 1300 is the next major zone of resistance
- A minor turn window is eyed next week
- A close below 1270 would turn us negative on Gold
GOLD Strategy: Like long side while above 1270.
| Instrument | Support 2 | Support 1 | Spot | Resistance 1 | Resistance 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOLD | 1260 | *1270 | 1290 | *1300 | 1315 |
Focus Chart of the Day: USD/JPY
Trading in USD/JPY remains quite choppy. After a seemingly ominous close last week below the December low close, the exchange rate has come storming back to trade back into the middle of the multi-week range. Apparently this latest rally is on the back of suspicions that the BOJ might surprise the markets at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting tomorrow. So much for the idea that the market has lost faith in central banks! I say that somewhat in jest, but I do understand the paranoia as it would make sense for central banks to try and flex their muscle after having their credibility called into question in one fell swoop out of Bern. The technical picture is now a bit of a mess as the low last week keeps alive the possibility that USD/JPY is just in the midst of some sort of “triangular consolidation” before heading higher again. My view has been that USD/JPY is susceptible to a more important decline under 115.00, but the pair needs to turn around relatively soon if this more negative scenario is going to play out. The end of the week looks critical from a cyclical perspective as strength in the rate should not extend too much past Friday if the move off the lows last week is indeed only corrective.
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This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.
--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX
