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Price & Time: USD/JPY Range Break Ahead?

By , Sr. Currency Strategist
02 May 2014 15:30 GMT

Talking Points

  • EUR/USD consolidating below key Fib zone
  • USD/JPY range break coming?
  • GOLD holds key support zone

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Weekly Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Weekly Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

Price & Time: USD/JPY Range Break Ahead?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD has been stuck in a sideways to lower range since failing earlier in the month at the 78.6% retracement of the March/April range in the 1.3900 area
  • Our broader bias is negative on the Euro while below 1.3970
  • Weakness under 1.3730 is needed to re-instill downside momentum
  • A cycle turn window is eyed next week
  • Only traction over 1.3970 turns our broader outlook positive

Weekly EUR/USD Strategy: May look to sell against 1.3970.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

*1.3730

1.3800

1.3860

1.3900

*1.3970

Weekly Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

Price & Time: USD/JPY Range Break Ahead?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY remains in a broad multi-month range
  • Our broader bias is negative in the rate while below 104.40
  • A close under 101.35 will signal a resumption of the broader decline
  • An important cycle turn window is eyed next week
  • Only strength over 104.40 will turn us positve on USD/JPY

Weekly USD/JPY Strategy: We like tactical short positions in USD/JPY while below 104.40 on a weekly close basis.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/JPY

100.75

*101.35

102.05

103.10

*104.40

Weekly Price & Time Analysis: GOLD

Price & Time: USD/JPY Range Break Ahead?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • XAU/USD came under pressure over the past week, but held above last week’s low
  • We are negative on the metal while below 1306
  • The 1280 area is key support with a weekly close below needed to signal a resumption of the downtrend
  • A turn window of some importance is seen here
  • A daily close over 1306 will turn us positive on the metal

Weekly XAU/USD Strategy: Square here, my look to go long on a close over 1306.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

XAU/USD

1260

*1280

1295

*1306

1331

Unfamiliar with Gann Square Root Relationships? Learn more about them HERE.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved

To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

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02 May 2014 15:30 GMT